THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Poll: How many wins will Mark Ellis contribute in 2009?

By Tangotiger, 02:36 PM

Using this metric for wins above replacement (WAR):
WAR = playingTime * (Offense + Defense + 2.75)
where:
Offense is wins relative to an average hitter (per 162 G)
Defense is wins relative to an average fielder AT HIS POSITION (per 162 G)
playingTime is the % of his team’s innings (games) you expect him to play

• Sabermetrics • Poll

#1 Hyltzn (see all posts) 2008/10/21 (Tue) @ 15:59

With an age adjustment, I have him at 2.7 WAR, so I chose 3.

#2 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/10/21 (Tue) @ 16:04

After 22 votes:WAR = 2.84:

(Highlight between colons.)

#3 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/10/21 (Tue) @ 16:45

After 36 votes, 0.02 WAR less than in post 2. Seems we have consensus already…

#4 brent (see all posts) 2008/10/21 (Tue) @ 20:55

I would have voted higher than 2, but I think he will miss some time on the DL.

#5 devil_fingers (see all posts) 2008/10/21 (Tue) @ 21:39

I voted for 3. Speaking for myself, not really knowing how to take the injury into account throws me off. Well, that and my cluelessness about how to project players in general. My cheapo 5/3/2 and 5/4/3 averages have him a lot better than that (over 4 WAR).

But then I got worried that Excel was giving him the Gritty White Guy bonus.

#6 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/10/22 (Wed) @ 13:34

After 89 votes, the result is: WAR = 2.87.

As you can see, it didn’t move much after 22 votes.

A 3yr deal, using the 2008 data:
http://tangotiger.net/salary2008.html
Implies that you guys think he is worth a 3/35 deal. That is his fair market value.

Add 10% if salaries jump like they normally would.

He signed for 50 cents on the dollar.

A 3/18 deal implies a 1.6 or 1.7 WAR in 2009 (depending on how much teams are going to pay for wins). Only 16% of you view him as being a 2 WAR players or worse.

A 2 WAR player would get a 3/23 or 3/24 deal. The person who said that 3/21 would be his max realistic was definitely not providing a max realistic assessment.

***

Finally, thanks to all who participated. You guys are simply great, and you continue to impress me with how much taking your collective wisdom approximates long drawn-out analysis.

#7 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/10/23 (Thu) @ 10:16

Discussion of Ellis and O-Dawg can be carried on here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/mark_ellis_v_orlando_hudson/

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Poll: How many wins will Mark Ellis contribute in 2009?

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