THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I was reading The Book today while waiting for an x-ray.  I was reading the chapter on platoon splits and the conclusion that from a runs prevented perspective keeping a left-handed and right-handed pitcher in the game and rotating them back and forth between the OF and the pitcher’s mound is likely a good idea.

Two similar, ideas come to mind that some might also find interesting.

The first is rather obvious, swapping the LF and RF based on the batter’s proclivity for hitting to one field or another.

The second, more related to the book’s chapter, involves intentionally building a team of hitter/pitchers.  Each June the draft seems to be full of players that can play the field OR pitch, why not draft them to do both and platoon a LH and RH in the same game?  Under those circumstances you get not only platoon splits from the pitching side, but likely (for an NL team) and edge in batting plus a deeper bench for PH.  There doesn’t seem to be a shortage of such players, but rather it’s a conventional wisdom that seems to dictate an either/or role for players.  Thoughts?

Players who can hit and pitch at amateur levels are aplenty.  Finding those who can do both at the major league level is going to bit quite a bit harder.

Ankiel, Micah Owings, who else?  Adam Loewen will try to make it as a hitter this year, but he didn’t have what it takes to stick in the big leagues as a pitcher.  John VanBenschoten was another, good enough to make the majors as a pitcher but not to stick.  We don’t know if he could have succeeded as a hitter.

Brooks Keishnick was marginal in both roles, for a major leaguer.

You want to slow the game down even more?

Rally-

Ruth comes to mind.  Seriously, though, I don’t know how many high school or college players have the talent to do both (or either), but when I read scouting reports I see plenty of college and, especially, high school players being considered as a pitcher and a positional player with some teams seeing them one way and some another.  Factoring in the platoon adjustments (around .02 in OBP on average, but teams could target higher-split pitching), the improved hitting (no pure pitcher batting) and other factors the players don’t even have to be quite good enough as either a hitter or a pitcher to still be useful in a combination role.

Eric - Ruth is not a very good example for your case.  If Ruth, who was a proven very good pitcher at the major league level, was not considered to be a prime candidate to continue as a pitcher/hitter after his home run hitting ability became undeniable, then who would be?  Evidently, it was decided that concentrating on hitting and maximizing Ruth’s skills in that area would provide more total value than having his practice time split between hitting and pitching and not having either skill reach its maximum potential.  I imagine that the reasoning is similar for young drafted players who possess multiple skills today.

I agree with Peter.  For the same reason (but on a smaller scale) that you don’t move your regulars from 2B to 3B to 2B, or 3B to RF to 3B, in-season, you definitely don’t want to consider something even more drastic.

Indeed, just moving a catcher to out of the catcher is very beneficial hitting-wise (showing how much of a burden it is to catch).  Swapping between being a pitcher and non-pitcher must have a very high price.

Beyond the first round, let’s say 10% of these high schoolers who are considered 2-way pro prospects are actually good enough to make the majors as pitchers, and 10% are good enough to make the majors as hitters.

Multiply those together and 1% have the talent to make the majors in both roles, though that would be 5% of the this group of players who actually make the majors.  That is assuming the odds are independent, and that is a big assumption.

We also don’t know how much a hitter’s development would be affected by him continuing to pitch, and vice versa.

I think one of the contributing factors that there aren’t many players that could “currently” make it in the big leagues as both a hitter and pitcher is because when they are drafted as a pitcher they don’t hit in the minor leagues.  I believe all minor league systems use the DH, and after spending 3 or 4 years in the minors not picking up a bat, good luck trying to hit at the major league level.  If you want to try what Erik says, you need to do this from Rookie level ball up through your minor league AAA system and into the big leagues.  I think it’s doable, but the way the teams currently pigeon-hole their pitchers (as non-hitters) in the minors, it’s nearly impossible.
vr, Xei

Peter-

I just threw Ruth’s name out there . . he’s not very useful in arguments as it is difficult to generalize from him. That said, I would guess even Ruth’s arm would be tired or sore after pitching a game which would keep him out of the line-up for a day or two. 

Peter, Tango-

It may well have a performance cost, but I suspect the bigger issue is simply the culture.  I would guess you could get a (good) guess on the cost on both on the hitting and fielding sides of things.  And you can get a (better) guess on the benefits of a platoon between a pitcher and a, say, first baseman. 

All that said, perhaps it’s impractical for roster reasons and perhaps the field of potential candidates really is very slim . . . they have to be at least marginal pitchers, but you probably don’t want great hitters either as you lose at least one of them (and probably both) 4 days out of 5.  It’s two rosters spots to, hopefully, give your bullpen a day off and, in a perfect world, a rotating day off between your 1B and corner OFs.  Basically, not something you’d use Babe Ruth on (or even a McGwire/Olerud platoon [both were decent collegiate pitchers]). 

Just thought I’d throw those ideas out there to see if anyone had done any research on how many runs could be saved by protecting a defensively challenged corner OF.  E.g., would the Mariners have benefited from swapping Suzuki and Ibanez when the batter was likely to hit the ball to left field? (I remember watching a Mets game where Rusty Staub, late in his career, had entered a game [probably to pinch-hit on a double switch] and ended up in the OF, where he was shifted back and forth between left and right field no a batter by batter basis.) The batter/batter platoon on the pitcher’s mound was a bit far fetched but it still seems like something that might work if the team had the right personnel.

I think many players have the *talent* to be both a pitcher and hitter. Most SS and C have the arm to be a professional pitcher.

But a player who is talented enough to be a replacement level pitcher and a replacement level hitter is a lot less valuable than that same player specializing in one or the other at league average. I think it can work at an amateur level because the replacement level is so much lower.

Matt

If you had a player who was a league average hitter and fielder at 3B by the time he is 25, having been such a player since leaving college, and if you had that exact same player be in an alternate universe a 3rd or 4th starter at age 25 having been a pitcher since leaving college, then I would guess the following would happen in a third universe:
- player remains a 3B AND P after leaving college
- his fielding value would be -5 runs relative to average
- his hitting value would be -10 runs relative to average
- his pitching value would be -15 runs relative to average

That is, you take a guy who could be an average nonpitcher or an average pitcher, and make him do both, and you have someone who will be a bit better than replacement-level nonpitcher and a bit better than replacement-level pitcher.

You end up with someone who is +0.5 WAR as a nonpitcher, and similarly as a pitcher, so someone who is +1 WAR in this 3rd universe.  Remember, in our other two normal universes, he was a +2 WAR player in each one.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kiescbr01.shtml
Brooks Kieschnick, I think, is a good example.  In a league ERA of 4.32, his ERA (all as a reliever) was 4.59.  This is almost the very definition a replacement-level reliever.  I’ll presume he had a weak glove, and his bat was average, which again is the definition of a replacement-level nonpitcher.

That said, if you are 26, and you are not in MLB, you should do something crazy like this.  Or become a knuckleballer.  But the pride of most would say that they are the undiscovered diamond if they just keep persevering.

Oh come on, what about Tony Pena Jr ... wait he can’t hit.

"replacement-level reliever”

Should read:

“replacement-level pitcher”

Are there any pitchers who are fast?

It seems to me that with the shorter benches, a marginal pitcher who can run would be extremely valuable as a mop-up man/professional bunter/pinch runner/ 4th OF.  None of those extra skills are anywhere near as hard to cultivate as the ability to hit ML pitches.

Similarly if I’m a NL starting pitcher, I would do everything I could to master the drag bunt.

I know pitchers run, and I would assume that pitching is a fast-twitch activity, but maybe sprinting would tire them out too much, who knows.

I know there was a question in the Red Sox system a few years back on whether Clay Buchholz was faster than Ellsbury.

I think teams would discourage the fast pitcher from drag bunting because they’d be afraid the pitcher would pull a muscle or something.

There was a pitcher in the 50’s who was considered a challenger to Mickey Mantle for title of fastest player in the league.

Some college pitchers also hit fulltime.  I wonder if the sore arm from pitching the day before has a negative effect on hitting.

Jeff Sackmann could probably answer this question from his college splits data.  I’ll email him to see if it strikes his interest.

Tango-

Just looking at your guesstimates, aren’t the numbers close to what you would expect to gain from the pitching platoon (at least for an NL club)?

The platoon splits on the mound should be worth roughly .02 wOBA which translates into roughly 15 runs if I am not mistaken.

The 10 batting runs by the fielder would be less than what is gained by a second hitter replacing the pitcher. though I’m guessing this sort of switching would be limited to 1b/RF/LF as one of the players would be lefty.

As I think about this though, I don’t see why players would have to suffer in their development (at least as pitchers). 

They could basically train/practice/prepare as pitchers but simply take more BP than the average pitcher.  (How much BP do most pitchers actually take?) If a team starts with a player with a demonstrated aptitude for hitting they should be able to stay ‘competitive’.  Losing .02 wOBA from what they might have had as an everyday player seems like a good starting guess.

Pitchers would be able to concentrate on pitching to fewer types of hitters.  For example, a LH pitcher would only need to deal with LH hitters (and the occasional S) letting him work lower arm angle pitches, work from the extreme edge of the pitching rubber or other unusual stuff to exploit/increase the platoon split.

Batting orders often alternate lefties and righties.  Managers can change this, but often teams are built for a particular order (and players don’t always like change).  In short, this means a players time in the on-deck circle will likely be spent watching the wrong pitcher.  No idea what affect this has.

Really beating a dead horse here, but I have nothing else constructive to add to this site until I do some math on your projection contest evaluation methodology.

I will say I did enjoy your book.  I was familiar with your work from a few years back when I stumbled across your Win Expectancy by Game State numbers when researching/testing a baseball simulator I was coding.  Good stuff.  I bought the book to ‘help support the research’, but it’s nice having a lot of stuff in one spot.

I might be mistaken but I seem to recall that I have read somewhere that LF/RF splits for flyballs are much much smaller than 1B/3B splits for groundballs. (Anyone that can confirm this?)

If that is the case the gain for switching your LF and RF might not be worth much.

What about Wes Ferrell?

Bjorn, that is right. There are also other patterns. For example, David Ortiz hits a lot of short fly balls to LF but his deep bombs are mainly to RF.

Tim Hudson won the SEC triple crown at Auburn, hitting .396/.430/.670 (18 HR in 273 AB). If he stuck with hitting maybe he would have turned into something, I don’t know anything about what scouts thought at the time.

And Jason Marquis can hit, but he can’t pitch

Ichiro might be used as an emergency pitcher in the World Baseball Classic. He has been working out with the pitchers in prepartion for the WBC. His pitch arsenal includes a low 90’s fastball and forkball.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3897198&name=Neyer_Rob

"I believe all minor league systems use the DH, and after spending 3 or 4 years in the minors not picking up a bat, good luck trying to hit at the major league level.”

In AAA and AA, if both clubs have NL parent clubs, the DH is not used.  So starting pitchers get some PA (for example, Mitchell Boggs got 25 PA in AA in ‘07 and 35 PA in AAA in ‘08).  Not much, but it is a common misconception that pitchers don’t hit at all in the minors and I thought worth mentioning.

Relievers got almost no PA, naturally.  Mark Worrell, he of the 2.500 OPS in 2 PA in the majors, has 3 PA in the minors in 3 years of AA+ ball (and a OPS of 1.000).  Talk about blind squirrels finding nuts…