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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, May 05, 2011

Play-Index expanded

By Tangotiger, 03:13 PM

Sean has expanded his Play-Index to use the weather parameters as noted in Retrosheet.

http://www.bbref.com/about/coverage.shtml

Weather Data

The weather data is based on conditions at the start of the game. Below we show the percentage of each data set (temp, wind speed & dir, etc) which are not null (or unknown). This data is included in the RetroSheet data files and is provided as is and most certainly contains some errors. There is no weather data pre-1950.

For example, these are HR hits in 2010-2011 where the temperature (using your father’s scale) of at least 95 degrees (35 in the worldwide scale).


#1          (see all posts) 2011/05/05 (Thu) @ 17:08

Does anyone know if the wind data ever got corrected in retrosheet?  One direction of the eight has been added in years.


#2    Lord Kelvin      (see all posts) 2011/05/06 (Fri) @ 12:45

For all the advantages of the metric system, temperature is the one measurement in which I prefer Dad’s system, because Fahrenheit is more specific than Centigrade (1.8 F degrees per C degree, so the integer F readings are more specific). You could always go to one decimal place for your Centigrade data, but that’s too much work.


#3    seank      (see all posts) 2011/05/06 (Fri) @ 13:18

Is there that much of a difference between 66 and 67 degrees Fahrenheit that using 19 degrees Celsius for both misses?


#4    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2011/05/06 (Fri) @ 13:27

Really, you make a decision on what to wear or what to do based on whether it is 77F or 78F?

I think even the Celsius scale is too granular!  My decision points would be every 3 or 4 degrees Celsius.  I can feel the difference between 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 degrees Celsius (50, 59, 68, 77, 86 F).  I think I’d like to know when it’s say 15, 18, 21, 24 Celsius in terms of decision-making (59, 64, 70, 75 F).


#5    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2011/05/06 (Fri) @ 13:30

Sean/3 was more economical in his point than Tango/4.  I wish I would have said what he said.


#6    Alt_n      (see all posts) 2011/05/06 (Fri) @ 20:58

3/seank & 4/Tangotiger:

I have the perfect scale for you, then:  The Newton Scale.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_scale

0F = -18C = -6N
32F = 0C = 0N
50F = 10C = 3N
72F = 22C = 7N
100F = 38C = 12N

Seriously, it’s probably the best scale out there for day-to-day use.


#7    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2011/05/06 (Fri) @ 21:28

Excellent!

Damn you guys know so much…


#8          (see all posts) 2011/05/06 (Fri) @ 23:52

Unless the weather observations are taken at the ballpark I’m not sure they have much value. If the scorer at Fenway Park is using conditions from Logan Airport what are the chances they are equal?

Also, there is no indication if changes in the weather during a game. Suppose a front comes through in the third inning and the temperature drops 15° and the wind shifts direction by 120°?


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