THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I remember when LaRussa did this for a while in McGwire’s 70 HR season, most people were critical, but I thought it made sense.

Nowadays, though, I’m a bit more sensitive to the emotional reaction of the position player who is now batting 9th. I’ve seen quotes, and there is certainly resistance to this ‘demotion’ among many such players. These guys, usually good field/no hit SS or C, have had to persevere to make it in MLB despite their weak sticks.

Of course, if this strategy eventually becomes the norm, that stigma will go away. But if I were a present manager, I wouldn’t want to be leading this strategy in the real world. The small gain in expected runs is probably not worth it. Let someone else ‘blaze this trail’, and I’ll come in near the end.

I dunno.  If you are a poor hitting SS or C, and you are batting 8th, do you really want the pitcher hitting behind you, especially with 2 outs (no chance of bunt)?  I would rather be batting 9th, and have the top of the order to drive me in.

I think you should be able to sell it on that basis.

Anyway, Alfonso Soriano and ARod (younger days of course) were 9th place hitters for quite a while.

Yes, readers of The Book already know this. 
We also know that having your #4 and #5 starters splitting each others start (on Day #3 and Day #5)and pinch hitting for your pitcher in all at bats in these games nets you even more runs.  Wonder when someone will actually try this.

vr, Xei

I wouldn’t be surprised if the 5th starter will go away.  After all, we all accept and know that a pitcher is more effective as a reliever than as a starter.  The improvement is astounding: a chance of 1.00 in ERA.  That is flatout enormous.  The cost of course is the diminished number of innings pitched.

But, I see teams carrying 12 pitchers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they eventually go to 13.  In a DH league, you have your starting 9, your backup catcher, IF, OF. 

At the very least, they can try this in September.  I really don’t see any reason for any 4th and 5th starter in September.  Especially on a non-contender.  Do you?

I think the effect (however tiny it already is) might be negated by high-leverage situations. The 8 hitter comes up 19 more times in a season than the 9 hitter, and is almost always a better hitter. Without getting into the math, I’m just guessing that the better hitter in a high- leverage situation would cancel out the 3 run effect of batting the pitcher 8th. Thoughts?

But usually high leverage situations would happen later in the game, and that’s when pinch hitters enter. Sometimes the pinch hitters are better than a bad SS/C, and many times those SS/C also get pinch hit for. It’s probably little to no effect either way assuming that the 8 hitter is pretty bad.

Good for you Ned Yost and especially Jason Kendall:
http://mlb.mlb.com/content/printer_friendly/mil/y2008/m03/d08/c2413512.jsp

The idea that dedicated athletes are a bunch of p-ssy primadonnas is shocking, like we need to stroke their egos.  Is this a baseball or basketball thing? 

In hockey, this doesn’t really exist. The coach benches you, he benches you.  He tells you to check, you check.  He’s not coddling you about it.  In the Canada Cups, Mark Messier, a fantastic scorer, is told that he’s going to be in charge of checking, and he does what he is told.  This is just the way an athlete does it: team first.

Scottie Pippen has got to be on of the exceptions.

Stop thinking players need to be talked to like they have a bib on.

Dan, the few run advantage already includes the leverage - low and high leverage situations.  You can’t leverage leverage unless something changes from low to high leverage situations.  Since it is either the pitcher batting 8th or 9th in all situations (those are the comparisons), leverage makes no difference.