THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Yep.  After 2006, I wrote that Pettitte would probably have to pitch until he was 40 to receive serious consideration.  That probably is still true.  Right now, he’s still in the Jimmy Key zone but that is liable to change.

I know how the authors feel about PED, but don’t you think that those who vote for the HoF will take into account Pettitte’s usage?  It may not be fair, but Pettitte will most likely have this impediment.
vr, Xei

When I say “HOF”, I don’t mean it necessarily as the Holy Writers’ version.  I don’t care whatsoever what those guys think any more than I care what the TV gasbags think about anything.

In the modern age with 3 rounds of playoffs, how should the cumulative playoff performance count towards the HOF?  Pettitte has pitched a lot—started 40 games I think.  His ERA is roughly the same as his regular season stats, so I’m not saying he’s necessarily a “big-game” pitcher and all that crap.  Still, 40 more games should count, shouldn’t it?  Even if he got the opportunity due to a lot of help from his teammates while guys like Oswalt didn’t. 

So, how do we go about assessing those 40 starts.  Adding them to his regular season stats seem like giving him too much credit.  But not counting them at all looks to me like not giving enough credit at all.

Adding those postseason starts to his regular season record may not be giving him enough credit.  These games are more important than the average regular season game.  If his ERA is similar to his regular season ERA, that’s a point in his favor as he’s facing tougher competition.

Well, his ERA is the same (3.90 vs. 3.91), but his walk rate, strikeout rate, and HR’s allowed are all a bit worse in the postseason, so I think it’s pretty fair to say he’s been the exact same pitcher in the postseason as the regular season.  Personally, my opinion is postseason success like that (where it’s a matter of opportunity and nothing more) should only count for a little.  I don’t like to reward someone for simply being on the Yankees, what can I say…

What about the wear and tear on a pitcher’s arm the next year?  Any truth to that?  Should we have expected Hamels to wear down in 2009 because of all the starts in 2008?  If pitching all those innings in the postseason hurts a pitcher the following year, then Pettitte should get some credit for being a solid pitcher for so long yet ‘endure’ lengthy seasons almost every year.

i think that the best contemporary comps for Pettitte (116 ERA+) are Carpenter (117) and Lowe (118). But even those comps arent quite right - Carpenter has had injury problems which hurt his counting stats and consistency, and Lowe started as a reliever, hurting his counting stats. some appropriate recent comps are Jimmy Key (mentioned by Mike Green) and Chuck Finley and David Cone.
plus, Pettitte has all the postseason experience, but i’ll leave that alone, take it for whatever you think its worth.
so compared to people who had full careers as starters, i’d say pettite sits between glavine/mussina and david wells/freddy garcia. the line for the HOF certainly falls somewhere in between. which side is Pettitte on? one interesting aspect to note is how often has Pettitte had a dominant season. looking at ERA+ (simply because its one convenient metric), i chose 130 as a cut off .why 130? just by inspection, even dominant pitchers dont top it all the time (for a full season as a starter) and it seemed like it would give a good discriminating count. Pettitte had 3 seasons of 130+. to compare, Mussina had 8, Cone had 6, David Wells had 2 and Finley had 4. so i think Pettitte is short on the measure of dominance, he will likely need more seasons, and counting stats (and postseason memories) will have to be his ticket.