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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, October 14, 2011

Performance by position of the Sun

By Tangotiger, 03:16 PM

Tom,

I added the rest of the regular season data for 2011 and created the attached graphics to show the correlation between the sun’s position and hitting success.  The big thing that jumped out at me was that hitting drops off when the sun is behind home plate and at an elevation of 20-29 degrees.  According to the sketch-up model for Busch Stadium, shadows are cast between the mound and home plate when the sun is at a solar elevation of 21-29 degrees.

My biggest concern is that as you get to the extremities of the chart, fewer and fewer stadiums are contributing data points.  I’m wondering if there are other park specific issues that could be impacting the results.

Let me know what you think.
Chris


image
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#1    Lee      (see all posts) 2011/10/14 (Fri) @ 17:04

Very cool looking graphs, but a quick question:

Shouldn’t the “night” data set (the inner ring) be our “control” and not show any trends? It looks like it has one of the strongest/most consistent patterns of all the elevations. (For SLG and AVG)


#2    Greg Rybarczyk      (see all posts) 2011/10/14 (Fri) @ 18:39

Have we got a link to the mechanics of how this data was generated?  I’m always interested in this sort of thing, going back to my Navy days and the celestial navigation they taught me…

I’m thinking that interpreting the data in the provided charts is going to be rather complicated given the change in position of the sun from day to day (i.e. the analemma).  Very interesting, though…


#3    Chris Cary      (see all posts) 2011/10/14 (Fri) @ 19:35

Lee - Good thought on the night data.  I’ll see if I can re-do the chart that way and how it looks.  It’s the first time I’ve tried a chart of this type, so I appreciate any suggestions.

Greg - the sun position data came from a spreadsheet that NOAA makes available, but I had to make a few small adjustments to change it to UTC instead of local time.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/solcalc/NOAA_Solar_Calculations_day.xls

Tom let me post it on his FTP site a while back.
http://www.tangotiger.net/chriscary/


#4    evo34      (see all posts) 2011/10/14 (Fri) @ 23:16

Love the idea here.  I need some help with the charts, though.  Are there no stadiums where the sun sets anywhere from left field to first base?  Also, it seems that as the sun is getting low behind the first base line, hitters do exceptionally well.  Is this a correct interpretation?  Could you post a table of sun angle vs. OPS (all sun directions combined)?  Thanks.


#5          (see all posts) 2011/10/14 (Fri) @ 23:23

Are there no stadiums where the sun sets anywhere from left field to first base?

You don’t want the batter looking into the setting sun and trying to pick up the baseball out of the pitcher’s hand.

Most stadiums are oriented with center field roughly toward the north to east for this reason, though there are some exceptions.


#6    Suicide Squeeze      (see all posts) 2011/10/15 (Sat) @ 07:49

Here’s a nice visualization of the orientation of all the stadiums:

http://www.flipflopflyin.com/flipflopflyball/info-orientation.html


#7    Doughboy      (see all posts) 2011/10/16 (Sun) @ 10:17

http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomical-applications/data-services/alt-az-world

Above is a useful link for this sort of thing. Go to Google Earth and get the lat/long for home plate. Feed that lat/long into the above for sun azimuth/elevation at any minute of any day.


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