THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, February 07, 2011

PECOTA 2011

By Tangotiger, 10:39 AM

They have been released.

Colin does something cool and compares a (stripped-down) version of PECOTA to Marcel.... for 1950-2010! And shows both to be in a dead heat. Which is good, because it shows that the core part of PECOTA starts off with a strong base. Presumably all the value-added that Marcel lacks (parks, minor leagues, components and/or comparables) would bring PECOTA up to be better.

The only question is how much value-added PECOTA (and ZIPS and Chone and MGL and Oliver,etc have).

That’s my only role here really, be it with Marcel or FIP or FutureFIP: to provide a baseline by speaking for the common man. So, I love it that Colin used Marcel as he did, as that was exactly what it should have been used for.

• Sabermetrics • Forecasting

#1 Colin Wyers (see all posts) 2011/02/07 (Mon) @ 11:50

Yeah, I thought you might like that.

Also - MLBAM, Retro and Lahman IDs in every spreadsheet. Because I care.

#2 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2011/02/07 (Mon) @ 12:56

Fantastic on the ID!

I haven’t downloaded because office blocks that particular part of BPro. I’ll check it tonight.

#3 anon (see all posts) 2011/02/07 (Mon) @ 19:27

so my question is, why bother paying for PECOTA when Marcels is so close on hitting and slightly better on pitching?

#4 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2011/02/07 (Mon) @ 19:54

Colin’s article was based on the stripped-down version of PECOTA. Testing on the full-blown version of PECOTA will give slightly different results.

Your overall question is still a valid question to ask, not only in comparison to Marcel, but to ZIPS, and potentially others that are free (fan forecasts, included), or others that might cost less (THT? I don’t know about Shandler’s. Bill James?)

#5 anon (see all posts) 2011/02/07 (Mon) @ 20:02

So how does the full-blown version of PECOTA compare? If that’s the real question, then why bother with the stripped down one at all. Compare full-blown PECOTA with Marcels and lets talk.

#6 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2011/02/07 (Mon) @ 22:39

Well, that’s part of what I’ll be doing in the next day or two, 2007-2010, Marcels, Oliver, PECOTA, Chone, and ZIPS.

#7 MGL (see all posts) 2011/02/08 (Tue) @ 05:38

Colin, are the projections in this Pecota release park-neutral, do they reflect the team that a player plays for now, or do they reflect their last year’s team?

It is not so clear from your article.

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, February 07, 2011

PECOTA 2011

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