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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, February 28, 2008

Padres Sabermetrician

By Tangotiger, 07:05 PM

Chris Long


#1    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/03/12 (Wed) @ 17:10

Part 2:
http://friarforecast.com/?p=360

[Khalil Greene] has a 270 BABIP at home, and a 306 BABIP away.  PETCO’s BABIP last year was 280, the rest of the NL averaged 306; in 2006 these were 280 and 303.  So he’s a little unlucky there, but not much.  He strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk at a high rate, but hits for power.  That’s really the worst combination for PETCO.  Pitchers throw more strikes, because the outcome of a BIP is likely to be less damaging. So while Khalil has been a little unlucky, it’s really the interaction of his hitting approach, the ballpark, and how pitchers pitch in PETCO.

However:

At the major-league level, the current best fielding analytics are much better than humans at determining fielding ability and value.  It’s not even close.  The great thing about something like this is that if you understand what your method is doing, you’ll have a better understanding of what to look for when watching that player in the field.

When I look at what humans are saying:
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2007_SDN.html

Who exactly there are the Padres fans not evaluating properly?


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