THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Overlaying outcomes onto park configurations

Can we really simply just do this, for Barmes?

Was Adrian Gonzalez disproportionately suited toward Fenway and against Petco?  Clearly the opposing pitcher is going to try to mitigate whatever advantage a player has.  If you just take Gonzalez extra base hits at Petco, and pro-rate to 351 PA, that gets you 27 extra base hits.  If you look at all the other parks he’s played in, he pro-rates to 42 extra base hits in 351 PA.  So, bring him to Fenway, and we’re thinking that he’ll do great right? He hit 31 extra base hits at Fenway.

Now, I’m not saying that Barmes at PNC will or won’t be affected.  But there seems to be this presumption of overlaying performances, to see how someone will be affected.  And, yes, I’m sure this is true… to some degree.

What a saberist’s job to figure out is the level of degree… how far can you make that claim.