THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

If there was one takeaway that you could convince managers to implement from The Book, I really think lineup optimization would be it.  Split the lefties, and put your best hitters 1, 2 and 4, then 3 and 5, and finally the rest.  It’s simple and intuitive and should really be a no brainer.  I did this for the Orioles a few weeks ago, but I’m afraid Brian Roberts’ back injury is going to mean Cesar Izturis bats first or second.

http://baltimorebirdsnest.blogspot.com/2010/03/lineup.html

The ESPN commenters however are totally against these lineups.

Evidently I motivated someone to post their first ever comment on ESPN.  They hated my article.

VICTORY!

THIS is how you respond to someone you probably disagree with:

http://fackyouk.blogspot.com/2010/03/sky-kalkman-suggests-jeter-should-bat.html

I like that Jay guy.  He understands what Sky was trying to do, he tries to see it his way, and he comes up with his own thoughts on the matter.  Can’t ask for more fom a reader.

#2 I went to look and there was only 2, but then I saw the Yankee comments.  For a Yankee article, that isn’t bad.  The deal with the Yankees is that they could basically bat the worst possible lineup and still outscore 3/4 of the teams if they were optimized.

btw Sky, when are you going to look at the powerhouse that is the Royals?

I really like that Philly lineup; that one looks perfect to me.

The Yankee lineup feels askew to me.  At face value, I’m nervous about Nick Johnson at #1, and I don’t like Robbie Cano #5 in front of both Swisher and Jeter.  However, intellectually I can explain my misgivings away by noting that neither Swisher nor Jeter hits RHP as well as LHP.

Against LHP, my Yankee lineup would be:
1 Jeter (R)
2 Teixeira (S)
3 Swisher (S)
4 Rodriguez (R)
5 Johnson (R)
6 Cano (L)
7 Posada (S)
8 Granderson (L)
9 Gardner (L)

I bet that lineup is closer to what ESPN readers wanted to see.

I recall reading in the Newark Star-Ledger recently that the Yanks were indeed considering Cano in the five-hole.

Interesting. Without looking at numbers, I would put A-rod at second, and Tex at cleanup. Both are great power hitters, but I would like more speed closer to the top (again, only between two equally great hitters).

Here’s the Cubs:
http://www.anothercubsblog.net/2010-articles/march/cubs-lineup-vs-lhp-optimized.html

***

Speed is better in front of whoever can get singles, doubles, and groundball outs.

My new favorite ESPN comment:

“Numbers can do a lot - but they can’t think. So people who rely on stats ... aren’t thinking.”

Start thinking, people.

Hmm.  Against RHP, the only think I’d quibble with is batting Cano 5th.  Which is funny, because that’s what the Yankees intend to do, in general - bat Cano 5th. 

I can’t really argue much against Johnson-Tex-Granderson-ARod.  That’s fine, maximizing NJ’s OBP and minimizing his GIDP tendencies.  5th I’d go with either Posada or Swish, then Cano 6th, then the other of Posada/Swish, then Jeter & Gardner 8 & 9.

The wailing and gnashing of teeth from the usual suspects if you batted Jeter 8th would be epic.

There are two reasons I’d drop Cano deeper in the order than 5th: 1) his struggles with runners on, which extend beyond merely results.  His *approach* in those situations has been different, and the results match.  If I see a change in approach, I’ll be psyched, and pleased to see him hit 5th; 2) he’s a GIDP machine. 

Against LHP, I’d go with a more traditional:

Jeter
Johnson
Tex
ARod
Swisher/Posada
Cano
Swisher/Posada
Gardner/Winn/Thames
Granderson

Of course this ignores games in which Cervelli catches.  When he does, he’s pretty much your default #9.

I may have missed it --- but I did not see how many more runs these lineups would score over the expected lineups on a per-game basis.

Here’s my optimized lineup for the Cardinals, please feel free to critique it.

http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/2010/03/03/bat-pujols-second/

I went ahead and optimized the Marlins lineup as well. Feel free to critique.

marlinmaniac.com/2010/03/22/the-maniac-optimizes-the-marlins-lineup/