THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, September 04, 2009

Odds of making the HOF

By Tangotiger, 07:44 PM

This excludes pitchers. Only voted in by BBWAA. I looked at all players born between 1874 and 1958 (that includes Lajoie, Wagner, and excludes Raines), and grouped them by WAR.

All players with at least 80 WAR are in the HOF.
10 of 11 with 70-79 WAR are in (91%).
18 of 31 in the 60s are in (58%). ... this is where Tim Raines finds himself
20 of 41 in the 50s are in (49%). ... this means that if you have 55 WAR, you have a 50/50 chance of making it.... this is where Andre Dawson finds himself
22 of 64 in the 40s are in (34%).
11 of 115 in the 30s are in (10%).

• Sabermetrics • Awards

#1 Redsauce (see all posts) 2009/09/04 (Fri) @ 21:01

Is there a breakdown of the list and the players someplace?
Thanks!

#2 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/09/05 (Sat) @ 01:42

http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/top500.htm

#3 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/09/14 (Mon) @ 11:25

By the way, the Odds can be expressed linearly with this equation:

Odds = (WAR-30) / 50

So, if you have 55 WAR, that puts your odds at 50%. You are at 100% once your WAR reached 80.

You will also note that for someone with a 15 year career, they get 30 wins for being above replacement. That is, WAR minus 30 equals WAA.

If your WAR is 30, you are an average player (presuming a 15-year career). If your WAR is 55, your WAA is 25, etc, etc.

So, we can also say, for someone with a long career:

Odds = WAA/50

Whatever your wins above average is… divide it by 50, and that gives you the odds of making the hall of fame.

(Applies only to players with long careers, which are of course the guys that are in the discussion pool to begin with.)

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, September 04, 2009

Odds of making the HOF

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