THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, October 19, 2009

Attendance Index, since 1969

By Tangotiger, 11:22 AM

Mike Lupica has taken a representative poll of the 3 billion adults on Earth and determined:

There aren’t fans better than this anywhere in the world. ... But no fans have ever supported a baseball team, the most famous team in this world, the way Yankee fans support theirs…

Here is the attendance index for each team (taken simply as the fans per home game, divided by the MLB average, for that season), averaged from 1969-2006. Number 1 is the Dodgers, who had 61% more fans than average, on average (while playing .534 ball in that time frame):

Att_Index win_percent years team
1.61 0.534 38 LAN
1.4 0.465 14 COL
1.23 0.52 38 SLN
1.22 0.558 38 NYA
1.18 0.54 38 BOS
1.17 0.499 9 ARI
1.16 0.495 30 TOR
1.14 0.501 38 NYN
1.12 0.523 38 BAL
1.12 0.492 38 PHI
1.11 0.524 38 CIN
1.09 0.495 38 ANA
1.06 0.481 38 CHN
0.97 0.469 2 WAS
0.96 0.515 38 HOU
0.96 0.482 38 DET
0.95 0.516 38 ATL
0.94 0.484 35 TEX
0.94 0.488 38 KCA
0.88 0.47 30 SEA
0.86 0.461 38 SDN
0.86 0.501 38 CHA
0.85 0.509 38 SFN
0.84 0.473 37 MIL
0.82 0.484 38 CLE
0.8 0.484 36 MON
0.79 0.525 38 OAK
0.77 0.498 38 PIT
0.76 0.493 38 MIN
0.74 0.473 14 FLO
0.68 0.453 3 WS2
0.59 0.395 1 SE1
0.59 0.398 9 TBA

Yanks are 4th, even though they’ve had the best team in MLB. And here’s how the attendance ranks when we look only at teams that played under .500 ball. Now that’s some great support for Dodger teams: 48% above league average!

Att_Index win_percent years team
1.48 0.457 8 LAN
1.28 0.444 10 COL
1.19 0.441 15 BAL
1.15 0.459 13 SLN
1.05 0.415 4 ARI
1.02 0.477 6 BOS
0.99 0.449 25 CHN
0.99 0.426 14 TOR
0.99 0.452 21 ANA
0.97 0.466 7 NYA
0.93 0.445 21 PHI
0.89 0.444 20 TEX
0.88 0.453 15 CIN
0.85 0.438 1 WAS
0.84 0.461 11 HOU
0.82 0.427 17 NYN
0.79 0.421 20 DET
0.79 0.434 20 KCA
0.77 0.438 25 MIL
0.77 0.419 24 SDN
0.73 0.429 21 SEA
0.72 0.45 18 CHA
0.72 0.446 10 FLO
0.72 0.439 20 MON
0.7 0.452 17 SFN
0.68 0.442 21 PIT
0.64 0.43 17 ATL
0.64 0.441 19 MIN
0.63 0.445 25 CLE
0.62 0.437 14 OAK
0.61 0.414 2 WS2
0.59 0.395 1 SE1
0.59 0.398 9 TBA

***

And here’s the Index when a team plays at least .500 ball:

Att_Index win_percent years team
1.7 0.516 4 COL
1.64 0.555 30 LAN
1.4 0.558 21 NYN
1.35 0.551 17 PHI
1.3 0.552 16 TOR
1.28 0.58 31 NYA
1.28 0.55 25 SLN
1.27 0.572 23 CIN
1.26 0.567 5 ARI
1.23 0.564 9 SEA
1.21 0.545 17 ANA
1.21 0.551 32 BOS
1.21 0.541 13 CHN
1.19 0.586 21 ATL
1.17 0.562 13 CLE
1.14 0.549 18 DET
1.1 0.547 18 KCA
1.09 0.5 1 WAS
1.08 0.579 23 BAL
1.01 0.538 15 TEX
1.01 0.532 14 SDN
1.01 0.538 27 HOU
1 0.547 12 MIL
0.98 0.548 20 CHA
0.97 0.555 21 SFN
0.9 0.54 16 MON
0.9 0.565 17 PIT
0.88 0.576 24 OAK
0.88 0.544 19 MIN
0.81 0.531 1 WS2
0.77 0.539 4 FLO

By the way, the Expos fan base by this measure was somewhere between the Pirates fan base, Giants, Whitesox and the Brewers.

• Sabermetrics • History

#1 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/10/19 (Mon) @ 12:47

The simple average is:

.553 win% -> 1.15 times the league average in attendance

.443 win% -> 0.88 times he league average

If the league average is say 2.5MM fans, then each team win from .500 gives you a net change of 40,000 fans in the stands.

Or put another way, each win adds about 1.5% to your attendance.

If we extrapolate that to all revenues, then each win will add to a team with 200 million$ in revenue a total of around 3 million$.

From here, it’s easy to see how a marginal win should cost a team about 2.5MM in player payroll.

#2 weskelton (see all posts) 2009/10/19 (Mon) @ 13:40

Well of course the Yankees fans keep coming. Everybody loves a winner. Here’s another overall look. This time I’ve divided the attendance index by the winning_index. This would be ((attendance/lgAvg attendance) / (winning_pct / .500)). The best fans in the world sink all the way to 10th. This list starts to look like the BIG market vs. small market argument.

Apologies for the (lack of) formatting.

1.61 0.534 38 LAN 1.507490637
1.4 0.465 14 COL 1.505376344
1.23 0.52 38 SLN 1.182692308
1.17 0.499 9 ARI 1.172344689
1.16 0.495 30 TOR 1.171717172
1.12 0.492 38 PHI 1.138211382
1.14 0.501 38 NYN 1.137724551
1.06 0.481 38 CHN 1.101871102
1.09 0.495 38 ANA 1.101010101
1.22 0.558 38 NYA 1.093189964
1.18 0.54 38 BOS 1.092592593
1.12 0.523 38 BAL 1.070745698
1.11 0.524 38 CIN 1.059160305
0.97 0.469 2 WAS 1.034115139
0.96 0.482 38 DET 0.995850622
0.94 0.484 35 TEX 0.97107438
0.94 0.488 38 KCA 0.963114754
0.88 0.47 30 SEA 0.936170213
0.86 0.461 38 SDN 0.932754881
0.96 0.515 38 HOU 0.932038835
0.95 0.516 38 ATL 0.920542636
0.84 0.473 37 MIL 0.88794926
0.86 0.501 38 CHA 0.858283433
0.82 0.484 38 CLE 0.847107438
0.85 0.509 38 SFN 0.83497053
0.8 0.484 36 MON 0.826446281
0.74 0.473 14 FLO 0.782241015
0.77 0.498 38 PIT 0.773092369
0.76 0.493 38 MIN 0.770791075
0.79 0.525 38 OAK 0.752380952
0.68 0.453 3 WS2 0.750551876
0.59 0.395 1 SE1 0.746835443
0.59 0.398 9 TBA 0.74120603

#3 (see all posts) 2009/10/19 (Mon) @ 13:53

The most famous team in the world? I’d be willing to bet there’s a Euro soccer club that’s more well-known than the Yanks.

#4 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/10/19 (Mon) @ 14:03

wes: actually, that’s not totally fair.

A better best-fit is the following:
4* win% - 1 (or similarly, wins over .250 win%, times 4… that is, simply look at “replacement wins” above .250).

So, a .500 team will have a Fan Index of 1
A .550 team will have a Fan Index of 1.2
A .450 team will have a Fan Index of 0.8

Using this equation then, the Yanks, with a .558 win% should have had a Fan Index of 1.23, and then had 1.22. Take the 1.22, divided by 1.23, and the 99 is their “clutch Fan” score.

Here are the clutchiest fans:
163 COL
142 LAN
118 TOR
117 ARI
116 PHI
115 CHN
114 SLN
114 NYN
111 ANA
111 WAS
103 DET
103 BAL
102 SDN
102 BOS
102 SE1
101 CIN
100 TEX
100 SEA
100 TBA
99 NYA
99 KCA
94 MIL
91 HOU
89 ATL
88 CLE
86 CHA
85 MON
84 WS2
83 FLO
82 SFN
78 MIN
78 PIT
72 OAK

The fans who don’t support their teams as much as they should: A’s, Pirates, Twins, Giants, Marlins.

The Expos, if I had stopped in 1997, would climb up a few notches.

#5 (see all posts) 2009/10/19 (Mon) @ 14:54

I don’t think it’s fair to compare Dodgers fans to other teams’. After all, they only have to stay for four innings =)

#6 weskelton (see all posts) 2009/10/19 (Mon) @ 15:54

Tango,

I think you’re suggesting that at .250 there are replacement fans and that there is linear relation between wins and attendance beyond that point, right? If so, what is that replacement attendance figure and the marginal attendance per win above .250?

#7 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/10/19 (Mon) @ 16:19

Wes: Right, exactly.

And the equation says it all, right? 4*win%-1, or index = 4*(win%-.250)

So, for every one win, the index goes up by 2.5%.

#8 (see all posts) 2009/10/20 (Tue) @ 15:31

This is completely ridiculous without controlling for the vastly different ticket prices between stadiums.

How many Rockies fans fork out 65 bucks for a seat in the terrace section? I’m sure if the Phillies, Dodger, Rockies etc. charged 2 gs for field level seats, they would all sell out immediately.

This is pointless and say nothing without taking prices into consideration.

#9 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/10/20 (Tue) @ 16:06

Yes, of course, “completely” ridiculous.

#10 Brian Cartwright (see all posts) 2009/10/20 (Tue) @ 18:45

Price is a reflection of the demand, not the other way around.

A seat in the first row behind the 3b dugout is $500 in Dodger Stadium and $35 in PNC Park because the Dodgers top the list and the Pirates are near the bottom.

The Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox can charge much higher prices because they have enough fans willing to pay the money to be in the seat. Pittsburgh gives a 93% discount in price for better seats and still can’t sell them all.

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, October 19, 2009

Attendance Index, since 1969

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