THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I’ve been noticing a lot of people getting on Punto’s case lately (not just for the teensy little baserunning mistake, which of course is totally deserved). He takes more pitches than anyone but Mauer and probably Span, gets on base at a better than average clip, usually runs the bases well (the other day and his constant and infuriating head-first slides into first notwithstanding), and plays stellar defense. He’s the least of their (non-1B) infield problems. The Twins need very badly to fill two of 2B, SS, and 3B, and need Punto to fill the other spot (hopefully short).

Maybe I didn’t get into this enough in the post - as I felt it may have been dragging a little bit already - but I don’t feel you can really count on Punto to give you the 2.4 WAR/162 G that is cited here.  He’s 2.0 WAR/162 G over the last 3 years, and much of that is based on a huge BABIP spike in 2008. I think you’re far more likely to get the .295 wOBA or below that we saw this year than the insanely valuable .324 wOBA + great fielding that we saw in 2008.

Upon reflection I see that my conclusion wasn’t properly supported, but I still think, with regression for his fielding (about 1.5 seasons at each position isn’t really enough to fully understand) as well as understanding how volatile his hitting is with his dependence on BABIP, I still think that he’s no more than a 1.5 WAR player going forward.  But this is where my opinions on the player leak in, so I can understand the issues with the conclusion.

Can you tell me how many non-pitchers had at least 1.5 WAR in 2009?

I think “great bench player” is kind of a starter/bench equivalent of a 4A player. A guy who really shouldn’t be playing everyday on a good team, but is still better than most of the guys filling out the bench spots. Of course guys like this have value, but it’s tough finding that balance of appropriate amounts of playing time.

Can you tell me how many non-pitchers had at least 1.5 WAR in 2009?

182

If after regression, you still have a 1.5 WAR player making basically nothing, that’s a very valuable player. 

I really don’t understand the bolded line of quote in the OP.  If your weakest link is a 1.5 WAR player, you are in great shape.

Jeff: actually, it’s close to 257 (you probably have the “qualified only” tab selected).

There are 30x8+14 MLB roster spots for regulars, or 254 full-time slots.

If you perform at 1.5 WAR, that means that you are a regular player.

Punto’s performed at 2.4 WAR, and if you give him 80% playing time, puts him at 1.9 WAR.

As I said, if you want to age him so that he’s at 1.5, that’s ok.  But, he’s far from a bench player.  And the Twins *are* perennial contenders, and Punto has been a regular.

This is the same kind of argument one would make with Endy Chavez among many others. 

Take out Jack’s line, and it’s a great article.  The line he throws in, which can be debated, really has no place in the rest of his article.  That’s the point.  Even if Jack is right, the article itself does nothing to support him, and indeed contradicts him.

If you look at the playoff teams of the last decade, I’d bet more than 50% had (at least) one position where none of the players had a WAR over 1.5.  Certainly, Punto can’t be your best player.  But, if he’s your 6th or 8th best non-pitcher, you are in more than fine shape for the playoffs.

number of Twins wins:
2005: 83 (112)
2006: 96 (135)
2007: 79 (150)
2008: 88 (99)

(Punto GP in parens)

Looks like a perennial contender to me.  Yes, they have Mauer, but half the teams have someone at that level.

Anyway…

Tom - I did a min 10 PA on the position players only and ended up with the 182

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=n&type=6&season=2009&month=0

What am I reading wrong when I download the Excel doc

I don’t think we know that 2008 represented a “huge BABIP spike.” He had almost an identical BABIP in 2006 (Fangraphs has .338 in one and .337 in the other, but I know these things vary a bit from site to site), and his “batted-ball profile” is pretty similar among 2006, 2008 and 2009.

It seems more likely to me that 2007 was the huge outlier (obviously something wrong with him that year, not hitting the ball with any authority at all) and otherwise he’s been about the same player, with a healthy measure of bad luck in 2009. I don’t know that he should be expected to BABIP .330+, but probably not .280 either.

Jeff: you are correct.  I figured there were 50 players per page, so I did 50x5+7.  But, I guess it was 35x5+7=182.

My bad, and you make my point even better!  Just 182 guys, 6 per team, perform at 1.5 WAR or more.

Ah - I should’ve done more research re: scarcity of 1-1.5 win players.  The conclusion was made hastily and mistakenly.

Punto was playing through a strained oblique in 2007, largely because the Twins had little infield depth that year.

Punto’s not going to knock your socks off, but welcome to the difficulty of finding a major league shortstop.  You can’t find 30 shortstops who are clearly better than Punto, so I don’t understand how he ought to automatically get pegged as a bench guy.

Even at a pretty underwhelming 1.2 WAR this year, he was the Twins’ 7th-most-valuable player.  There were only 6 Red Sox position players who were obviously better than Punto, too.  The Phillies had 7, the Cardinals had 6, and the Rockies had 7.  Playoff teams pretty regularly have a couple of starters like Punto on them.

Jack: at the very least, this was a teachable moment, as ubelmann/13 points out.

"Take out Jack’s line, and it’s a great article.”

Thanks, that’s exactly what I was thinking.

You know, in years when Punto hits somewhere near league average, sure, he can complement a winning team.  But when he doesn’t hit—i.e. half of his major league career—he is a black hole big enough that defense cannot justify him being a starter. 

Here are the batting lines (avg/obp/slg/woba) and WAR for each of his four years as a starter:

2005:  239/301/395/282 0.7
2006:  290/352/373/324 3.1
2007:  210/291/271/260 0.8
2008:  284/344/382/324 2.6
2009:  228/337/284/295 1.5

His Babip was above 330 in both 2006 and 2008, but in 2005, 2007 and 2009 it fell to 296, 257 and 281, respectively.  Dropoffs for sure, but other than 2007 (by far his worst offensive year), the drop in Babip doesn’t seem steep enought to explain the difference in production.

Other peripherals are similar:  his BB% has been consistent every year (except this year, when he spiked to 14.5%, up from an average near 9%); his K% was slightly lower in 2006 and 2008 (14.8, 16.9) than in his off years (21.8, 19.1, 19.5); his LD% is usually around 20%, with 2007 being an outlier at 14.6%; GB% and FB% are similarly consistent.

So how to explain the erratic production?  Someone mentioned an oblique problem in 2007.  Well, okay, but what about 2005 and 2009?  Is there something in his mechanics that changes from one year to the next?  What information do we have to suggest that Punto can again be a 285/345/370 hitter?

Because, frankly, unless he can produce at that level, the numbers suggest that even above-average defense at shortstop/2B isn’t enough to warrant giving him an everyday job. 

Of course, this year he hit for poop but still managed a 1.5 WAR (even though his defensive numbers showed a bit of a dropoff).  Other than the spike in his BB%, I cannot figure out how he got to that 1.5 WAR.  And if it is the BB%, I don’t like the odds of him repeating that.

At any rate, the question is whether he is a regular or a bench player.  The answer, unfortunately, is that it depends.  And that isn’t what you would like to hear when filling out your roster during the offseason.

Also, I think ubelman @13 obfuscates things a bit here.  To say that the Phils “only” have 7 players better than Punto is disengenous:  they only start 8 position players.  And their worst position player—measured by WAR—was Pedro Feliz, who put up a 1.2.  So in reality, the entire Phillies lineup is at least as valuable as Punto, and most are considerably more valuable.

The same can be said for the Cardinals, with Skip Schumaker filling out their top-8 at 1.2 WAR.

Then there is the Yankees:  worst position player for WAR was Melky Cabrera at 1.6. 

The Angels:  They have nine position players above 2.0 WAR.  The only regular below Punto is Guerrero at 0.8, and he was injured/declining.

The Dodgers:  Their least valuable starter is James Loney, 1.4.

Then again with the Rockies:  they only had seven players out-WAR Punto, but they only have 8 position players; plus they didn’t have a regular 8th starter, as Atkins, Stewart and others all shared playing time. 

Finally, because the Twins had so many players worse than Punto does nothing to help Punto’s cause.  The Twins won 88 games and won the worst division in baseball by out-uglying Detroit in game 163.  Not a prototypical playoff team.  This team is deeply flawed, and Punto, depending on the year, either is or is not part of the problem.

* * * *
Which brings me back to this:  Punto is too erratic to count on as a regular.  Sure, teams can carry one 2009 Nick Punto—for instance the Cardinals and the Phillies and the Dodgers.  But they probably cannot carry a 2005 or 2007 Punto.

There were 222 players in the majors last year who had 400 or more plate appearances. Punto ranked 219 in OPS....only 3 worse, and only one worse in the AL. In 2007, when he played enough to qualify for stats, he had the worst OPS in 20 years. If you look into the numbers (or watch the Twins on a regular basis), you see that when he’s used as a utility guy, he’s a valuable asset, but when he’s counted on to play every day, he’s practically the worst offensive player in baseball...additionally, his defense (while slightly above average) is over-rated...he’d have a lot more errors if Morneau doesn’t scoop up a bunch of his throws (when he was playing SS) and some of the plays look better than they would for someone who is, to be blunt, taller.  I saw a play where the announcers raved about him catching a liner of his head...a regular sized shortstop would had to have jumped slightly for the same catch...he is not a guy that should be starting every day, even if his manager comes out and say any offense we get from punto is a bonus...no major league team should be run that way in this day and age, players should be expected to produce on both sides…

One more thing, for those just looking at Punto’s OBP...right around the end of August he realized the only way he could contribute offensively is to walk...in September he had 5 less walks than he had hits...his pitchers per AB skyrocketed cause he was praying to get on base...it’s not like he maintained a .330ish OBP all year, it was barely above .300 in mid August…

And concerning the amount of pitches per AB for Punto as being a possitive, he ranked 11th our of the 222 players in the majors who had 400 or more PAs, and yet he was 219 in OPS (as previously stated) He saw more pitchers per plate appearance than mauer. The guys who ranked 7th and 8th in P/PA had BA under .250...Obviously a stat that gets way more attention than it should cause it’s what you do with the pitches you actually swing at that count…

Punto’s problem is that the manager lavishes praise on him like he’s Babe Ruth, and never criticizes him when he slides head first into first base, or overruns thrid base, or make any mistake. However, that same manager has no problem criticizing others for those plays. If Punto was just treated like all the other players, people MIGHT be less harsh on him in MN. His other problem is that he makes $4MM per year, which may not sound like much, but look at the rest of that payroll (and then consider that they need to re-sign Mauer, find a starting pitcher, 3B and SS/2B). If they could get the 3rd worst OPS in baseball for the minimum, that is $3.5MM they could spend elsewhere....$3.5MM that they need.

So, whether or not Punto is good or not isn’t the full issue. His issue also includes the clear favortism of the manager, and his salary on a team that pays few people well.

There’s that too, Mike.  When the team was struggling offensively, Gardy actually came out and said if everyone else was doing their job offensively that no one would be criticising Punto’s lack of contribution.  In other words,Gardy doesn’t care whether or not Punto does anything with the bat AND he was actually blaming the other players for not doing their job causing the light to focus on the obvious fact that Punto was basically worthless offensively...this was right around the time Punto was batting under .200, with an OBP under .300 and an OPS barely over .500.  On top of that, Gardy said this previous offseason (prior to the season) that signing Punto was the teams’ #1 priority...not pitching, not a power hitting 3B, but signing Punto…

A sabermetric case for Nick Punto? Is this bizaro world?

There isn’t a single person reading this site or who follows MLB that thinks that Punto is anything other than a terrible hitter.

The point of the argument is that his fielding value is sufficient as to make up the gap, if not to totally making him a league average player, at the least, good enough to be a starting player (half-way between your typical bench player and your average starter).

If a team has Punto as its 6th or 7th best nonpitcher, that team is in a good position to make the playoffs.

So, please, stop with the OPS arguments.  There are no arguments regarding his hitting.

His OPS ranking is valid because one needs to see how very bad his offense is before factoring in how ‘great’ his defense is. To say he’s just terrible offensively isn’t enough...the depths of how terrible he is offensively needs to be shown.  Now, on to defense. His RZR (revised zone rating) for 2B AND SS was .801.  There were 19 2Bs who played enough to qualify for stats, and if he had, that .801 would have ranked 13th. So, AVERAGE.  There were 22 SS who played enough to qualify for defensive stats...that .801 RZR would have ranked him 16th.  AVERAGE. If you prefer regular ZR, he’s rank 19th out of 22 at SS and 7th out of 19 at 2B...So does being an average fielder in range at the positions you play AND THEN being one of the absolute worst hitters in the game warrant being a starter?

I realize that everyone acknoledges Punto’s woes at the plate.  And I get that your argument is based on his defense.  What I am saying is that the 2005 and 2007 versions of Nick Punto were not replacement level.  In those season his hitting was so bad that even above-average defense did not make up the gap necessary for him to be a starter.  So, going forward, when asked the question, “Is Nick Punto a starter”, I think the answer is, it depends on which version you get; and whether that swings toward yes leans heavily on what sort of year he has at the plate.

So, yeah, his slash lines and Woba are important in rounding out the picture.

It is insufficient to say that he has “averaged” 2.4 WAR per 162.  His 3.1 WAR in 2006 was significantly valuable, but his 0.7 in 2005 was not.  If the goal here is to use statistical measures when making operational decisions, then we need to have an understanding of Punto’s wild swings in value.  How do you value a guy like this?  And what value do you place on the risk that he might perform like this season instead of like his 2008 season?  Is his salary justified?  Should the Twins start him next year knowing that they might get a sub-1.0 WAR?

These things matter, and your elision of them does not make for a terribly convincing argument.

Jim: “the depths of how terrible he is offensively needs to be shown.”

This could be done in one sentence, not the umpteenth sentences I’ve seen.

***

As for defense, that is the arguing point.  Is he an average middle infielder, as you are arguing, is he a somewhat about average middle infielder, as Fans see him, is he a well-above average middle infielder as UZR sees him?

That is the question.  This is the ONLY question, frankly.  99% of the discussion needs to center on his fielding.  We already know how bad his bat is, we’ve already quantified it.  Let’s get past his offense already, and figure out how good his fielding is.

I will speak for all Royal fans and say we would love to get 1.5 WAR out of our SS position.  Heck, most will be happy anymore with 0 WAR

Through 2008 (in roughly the equivalent of 3 full seasons), Punto, as an infielder, has recorded 1512 outs. 

If you control for his pitchers, that is 132 more outs than other fielders (at his positions) with those pitchers.

It is 119 more outs, if you look at how other fielders did with the exact batters Punto has faced.

It is 106 more outs, if you look at the parks he’s played in.

Roughly speaking, Punto has recorded some 35-45 more outs, per season, than players at the same position, under the same conditions.

That’s some 25 or more runs per 162G.

When you used a more refined methodology like UZR, you get roughly +15 runs.

The Fans however aren’t as hot on him.  They do see him as above average, probably like +5 runs.

So, that’s where we stand with him, using these metrics.

I’m sorry, offense is a major factor in determining whether a player should be a starter or not, and should have a bigger part of the equation than defense, especially at 2B which is his best position.  Not saying it should be an overwhelming advantage, but an advantage. If he’s THAT bad offensively while being average/above average at defense, to me that makes him non-starter material...Problem is...as bad as he is, he was a better option at 2B than Harris, Tolbert or Casilla...quite sad, really.

In the end, it doesn’t matter...Gardy will start him as much as possible and we Twins fans will have to endure until at least the end of 2011…

Does UZR adjust for ball hogs at all?  Punto does essentially call anyone off of a pop-up regardless of whether he is at SS, 2B, or 3B.  On the other hand, he does seem to get to the tough pop-ups as well, especially in foul territory behind 3B and in front of the LF (if he’s at SS, or behind 1B and in front of the RF if he’s at 2B.) Though these days, the Metrodome has a lot of foul territory compared to other parks, so there could be a park effect there, too.

Hitting: Punto is a career -74 runs in 2530 PA, according to Fangraphs (which pretty much uses my methodology), or a rate of -20 runs per 162G.

B-r.com, which uses Pete Palmer’s method (similar to what I use) has him at -77 runs for his career.

So, that’s what his offense is worth: 2 wins below average per season.  That’s it.  That’s what it is.

In order for him to be an average player, he has to be around +17.5 runs above the average-fielding 2B/3B, or +12.5 runs above the average-fielding SS.  UZR has him in this ballpark, which is why he’s considered average if you use UZR.

In order for him to be a below-average player (but still legitimate starter), knock off about 5 to 10 runs, and see if his fielding talent is still above that level.  This is the Fans’ view.

In order for him to be a bench player, he has to be an average fielder.  This is the view of the minority.

In order for him to be out of baseball, he has to be a somewhat below-average fielder.  No one believes this.

That’s it.  All you have to do is figure out how good his fielding is, and that’ll tell you, based on the above, how much Punto should be playing.

There’s too many fans who don’t watch him play defense on a regular basis but rather just see the ESPN highlights...I’m glad someone thinks he should be starting…

The Fans I’m quoting are those that DO see him all the time.

Well, then they need to watch some other teams play too...perhaps they’ve having the same problem Yankees fans have had for year watching Jeter play SO much and seeing the occasional brilliant play.  It clouds their judgment on his actual defensive abilities. ‘Most’ of the fans I chat with on a daily basis on the Twins story boards disagree that he’s above average or brilliant.  Here’s one quote from today: ‘punto’s limited range and weak arm make him a second baseman at best. certainly NOT a shortstop. sure, he can make some acrobatic plays, but he has to because the balls others can get to punto has to dive to try to get. and his arm is just pathetic. other than the ultimate bonehead baserunning in the third game of the alds..... he sure did step up at the end of the year. does that out weigh 5 months of futility?

Well, then they need to watch some other teams play too IN ORDER TO COMPARE ABILITIES...perhaps they’ve having the same problem Yankees fans have had for year watching Jeter play SO much and seeing the occasional brilliant play.  It clouds their judgment on his actual defensive abilities. ‘Most’ of the fans I chat with on a daily basis on the Twins story boards disagree that he’s above average or brilliant.  Here’s one quote from today: ‘punto’s limited range and weak arm make him a second baseman at best. certainly NOT a shortstop. sure, he can make some acrobatic plays, but he has to because the balls others can get to punto has to dive to try to get. and his arm is just pathetic. other than the ultimate bonehead baserunning in the third game of the alds..... he sure did step up at the end of the year. does that out weigh 5 months of futility?

The fans also saw the other team field. I doubt they all skipped whenever the Twins went to bat. So I would disagree that “most fans” consider him terrible. There are a few vocal haters, but that isn’t most.

At this point it seems like you are simply biased against him. I know he has the Eckstein effect going for him (lots of love from announcers and managers), but he’s still a legitimate starter.

Jim, I’ve got 45 Twins fans who collectively see him as a bit above average for 2B:

http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=4

I’ve got 84 Yanks fans who see Jeter a bit below average for a SS:

http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=6

I don’t think the fans you talk to are necessarily representative.  I don’t know that mine are either, but I’ve got a huge collection of fans across all teams that shows at least reasonable results.

sean...Did I say terrible?  If you read my posts, I say he’s average to above average defender...then I said ‘‘Most’ of the fans I chat with on a daily basis on the Twins story boards disagree that he’s above average or brilliant.’ No mention of the word terrible..no mention of even BELOW average(with the possible exception of his arm, and even that’s called weak). His range numbers support that believe...that he’s average.  I just don’t have homer goggles.

Twins fans, as a general rule, are pretty affable...they’re used to having a few very good position players and then a collection of role players forced into starting roles...that comes from having ownership and a FO that puts the team together with the goal being to just be competitive in a normally weak division (and lately it’s turned out well). They look for the best in everyone and their standards get lower and lower. One game this year Bert and Bremer spent like 5 minutes talking about how unjustly maligned Gardy had been all season by some fans due to playing Punto so much...they, of course, waited till September when he found his groove after 5 months of yuck to make their statements, saying basically ‘See, Punto is stepping up, Gardy’s faith was justified’...apparently believing the first 5 months don’t count.  He started practically every game the first two months at SS before he got hurt...and his OPS was .501...and his defense was hardly stellar the first couple months either.  NOW, I AM glad he stepped up in September, of course (as did a lot of the team) and I did say in July that he was our best option at 2B, but that’s hardly a distinction with who he was competing with…

now here’s the kicker: I LIKE Punto. I just think he should be a utility player.  It’s not, however, his fault that Gardy keeps plugging his name into the lineup. What is he supposed to tell Gardy, DON’T play me?  He does his best and there’s nothing wrong with that.