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Monday, October 30, 2006

NHL hurting European Leagues

By Tangotiger, 12:24 PM

Here’s a report out of the IIHL, which provides me with a jumping off point. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we can draw parallels to MLB and non-USA players.  About 25 years ago, the NHL expanded to 21 teams, and almost all players were North American-born.  About 400 of them.  Since then, the European influx has mounted, and at the same time, NHL has expanded to 30 teams.  Result?  Still 400 North American-born players in the league.  The 9 new teams have been, essentially, stocked with European players.  But, how many Europeans should there be?  If you look…


... at all first-round picks over the last several years, or you draw up a list of the 50 best players in the NHL, you will find, basically, that 50% of the best players are from outside North America.  It seems reasonable to me then, that if we have 400 North American players, we should have 400 from the rest of the world, and not the 200-250 that exist.  Why the disparity?  My guess is that teams would prefer to fill in their 3rd and 4th line players with local boys, rather than worrying about the language barrier and extra costs that European players come with.  I’d even expect fewer scrub players from Quebec than from Ontario, relative to the number of star players from those provinces.

Does this exist in MLB?  I don’t know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.  My guess is we don’t have many scrub Dominicans.  Does this also apply to Blacks in MLB?  If we were to believe the lastest MLB awards, all the scrappy players in the league are white.  I’d love to see the issue researched.

#1    David Gassko      (see all posts) 2006/10/30 (Mon) @ 14:25

Thanks for suggesting an article I was going to write to the rest of the world. smile

At least being on the same wave length as Tom makes me feel smart…


#2    dq      (see all posts) 2006/10/30 (Mon) @ 15:48

2005 pa > 99

US born 304 of 435 (69.9%)

2005 pa > 499

US born 98 of 140 (70%)

DR does go down 14.3% vs 10.6%, but Venezuela goes up 3.6% to 6.7%

from lahman db


#3    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2006/10/30 (Mon) @ 16:00

That’s surprising!  Can you do the same breakdown for pitchers, maybe use 30 IP, 60 IP, 120 IP, 180 IP as cutoffs.


#4    mudcrutch79      (see all posts) 2006/10/30 (Mon) @ 22:31

I’m not sure if you frequent my site Tango but I emailed the author of the “study” to query his data.  You should check out his response, it’s close to the top of my site at the moment.


#5    dq      (see all posts) 2006/10/31 (Tue) @ 11:47

Pitchers
2005 stats, from lahman db:

ip usa total

30 289 401 0.721
60 192 271 0.708
120 97 131 0.740
180 75 95 0.789

That’s min ip, so bartolo colon is in all 4 categories.

Maybe the question is when did the bias go away?


#6    tangotiger      (see all posts) 2006/10/31 (Tue) @ 12:41

mc, I definitely go to your site… one of the best hockey analysis sites around.

dq: Good stuff. It looks like there is some effect there, among starting pitchers.  You have 75 of 95 (79%) being US-born, with at least 180 IP, and 117 of 176 (66%) pitchers between 60-179 IP being US-born.  It’s possible that there is a bias in putting non-USA pitchers in the swingman or relief role.

I agree it would be cool to see the historical trend.  Let me know if you are up for it or not.  I have some time this week, otherwise.


#7    dq      (see all posts) 2006/11/02 (Thu) @ 16:05

Here’s some data:

The purpose of this exercise is to see if players from the Dominican Republic are underrepresented on major league rosters,
and if players born in the US are overrepresented. Using the lahman database, I took the country of birth for all players
with 550 ab + bb from 1970-2005 and all players with 100 ab + bb for the same years. For the strike years I used 70/375 for 1981, 80/400 for 1994, and 90/500 for 1995. I realize I got a few pitchers, especially early, in the study, but this number should be pretty small.

I then computed a percentage for each country in the standout (550+) category and all (100+) category. The thought is that with populations that have the same distribution curve, the percentages in each category should be similar.

Most countries did not have enough of a sample to be significant. Of the 3,486 standout seasons, 2,810 were US, with the DR coming in at 218. Puerto Rico had 161, Venezuela 98, and then Cuba with 62. Cuba was fairly large in the early years, due to stars who left the country pre Castro.

I then computed the amount of players that should be in the all category, based on the percentage in the standout category. This amount was compared to the actual number to see if a country was over/under represented.

Over the course of time, the US is over represented, and the D.R. under. The surprising figure from the analysis is Venezuela; it appears that the all players here are over represented.

It does go in some cycles, the US was underrepresented for some reason in 1995-1998. The D.R. number has grown in 2004-2005, this is probably the trend worth watching here.

Batters 550 pa +
Count usa dr venez

197083 0.819 0.036 0.024
197176 0.803 0.026 0.026
197263 0.810 0.016 0.016
197393 0.839 0.011 -
197491 0.835 0.011 0.033
197584 0.845 0.012 0.012
197687 0.828 0.034 0.023
1977109 0.890 0.018 0.009
197898 0.898 0.010 0.020
197999 0.909 0.020 0.010
198091 0.824 0.055 0.033
1981103 0.854 0.019 0.039
1982106 0.840 0.038 0.038
198387 0.874 0.057 0.023
198492 0.880 0.076 0.022
198596 0.844 0.115 0.010
198692 0.880 0.065 0.011
1987102 0.863 0.049 0.020
198895 0.832 0.063 0.021
198984 0.786 0.071 0.024
199085 0.835 0.047 0.024
199188 0.830 0.068 -
199284 0.857 0.060 -
1993106 0.811 0.057 0.019
1994102 0.775 0.069 0.020
199594 0.809 0.064 0.021
1996110 0.845 0.045 0.018
1997102 0.804 0.049 0.029
1998118 0.780 0.068 0.042
1999111 0.739 0.099 0.045
2000112 0.723 0.089 0.045
2001109 0.697 0.110 0.055
2002114 0.693 0.114 0.053
2003101 0.644 0.129 0.059
2004115 0.652 0.148 0.078
2005104 0.692 0.154 0.048

3486 0.841 0.045 0.019

Batters 100 pa +

Count usa dr venez

1970341 0.850 0.026 0.018
1971343 0.857 0.026 0.015
1972334 0.865 0.024 0.015
1973341 0.868 0.032 0.012
1974337 0.866 0.024 0.012
1975352 0.869 0.020 0.011
1976337 0.875 0.018 0.009
1977360 0.881 0.025 0.008
1978374 0.882 0.027 0.011
1979362 0.878 0.028 0.008
1980376 0.875 0.037 0.013
1981360 0.878 0.036 0.014
1982364 0.882 0.036 0.014
1983366 0.888 0.027 0.016
1984375 0.877 0.035 0.013
1985376 0.870 0.045 0.016
1986384 0.857 0.044 0.018
1987375 0.845 0.053 0.027
1988365 0.852 0.049 0.027
1989375 0.835 0.064 0.027
1990373 0.836 0.064 0.024
1991386 0.826 0.065 0.021
1992387 0.829 0.067 0.018
1993398 0.839 0.053 0.020
1994387 0.796 0.078 0.018
1995411 0.800 0.073 0.027
1996401 0.798 0.065 0.032
1997416 0.793 0.070 0.026
1998428 0.771 0.079 0.035
1999440 0.759 0.084 0.036
2000435 0.747 0.083 0.048
2001431 0.726 0.093 0.046
2002430 0.730 0.081 0.053
2003434 0.694 0.097 0.060
2004430 0.698 0.095 0.067
2005423 0.702 0.104 0.066

13807

(Over)/Under Represented in 100 pa

Count usa dr venez

1970341 (11) 3 (1)
1971343 (19) 0 (4)
1972334 (19) (3) (8)
1973341 (10) (7) (12)
1974337 (11) (4) (4)
1975352 (8) (3) (8)
1976337 (16) 6 (7)
1977360 3 (2) (10)
1978374 6 (6) (3)
1979362 11 (3) (10)
1980376 (19) 7 (1)
1981360 (8) (6) 1
1982364 (15) 1 2
1983366 (5) 11 (6)
1984375 1 16 (5)
1985376 (10) 26 (7)
1986384 9 8 (14)
1987375 7 (2) (11)
1988365 (7) 5 (7)
1989375 (18) 3 (6)
1990373 (0) (6) (8)
1991386 1 1 (24)
1992387 11 (3) (23)
1993398 (11) 2 (14)
1994387 (8) (3) (18)
1995411 3 (4) (16)
1996401 19 (8) (17)
1997416 4 (9) (13)
1998428 4 (5) (6)
1999440 (9) 7 (6)
2000435 (10) 3 (8)
2001431 (12) 7 (8)
2002430 (16) 14 (8)
2003434 (22) 14 (8)
2004430 (20) 23 4
2005423 (4) 21 (5)

13807 (210) 102 (299)


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