THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Even if you’re targetting him?  They had him targetted for their third round pick!  It would have been another Mike Smith steal if not for that meddling Ferguson!

If he were so high on Roy, why draft Peter Douris, another run-of-the-mill player in the 2nd round?

If he really thought so highly of Roy, knew that some team would get him in the 3rd round, why not pick him in the 2nd round?

And, why doesn’t he complain that he lost out on (good-not-great) long-careered Doug Bodger, as Pittsburgh got their first round pick, in order to get (good-not-great) short-careered Randy Carlyle?

I’m being a little tongue in cheek.  I’ve had the same dispute with Flames fans who think Darryl Sutter knew Kipper would be Kipper and just waited a year to get him. 

I love having Jay Feaster and Smith writing stuff at THN.  A) They seem to better recall their good ideas that didn’t come to pass than their bad ideas that did and b) you start to get some insight into just how bad general managers in the National Hockey League are.  Smith going on about wins as proof of the importance of a good goaltender.  Feaster explaining how getting Vokoun would have been terrible for TB as it would have meant no Stamkos.

The list goes on…

Tyler, I knew where your tongue was… I just had to keep piling on.

But, yes, it is interesting what they choose to say.

Btw, it’s very much an old-boys network in the front office, among a large group of teams.  When we were dealing with teams, it was a necessity that Mike Smith was our spokesperson.  Basically, Mike was the one that got all the leads and was able to sell our work.  I will always be grateful to Mike for paving the way.

It’s not like in MLB where I can go to a team cold and they’ll listen to me.  I’ve talked with the GM or Asst GM of many teams in MLB.  That number in the NHL for me is zero.  Even though I’ve worked far more on the hockey side than the baseball side.

It’s a strange kind of setup.

You probably can’t say, but on the off-chance that you can: what front offices are some of the more forward thinking that don’t fall into the “old-boys network?”

Actually, I don’t know. 

I think the best way to characterize the teams that I did work for are that they were part of the old-boys network (hence the cache of Mike Smith) AND they were forward-thinking to buy what we were selling.  It was 4 or 5 teams each season, for the three seasons I was involved.

Btw, it’s very much an old-boys network in the front office, among a large group of teams.

This doesn’t surprise me, although it infuriates me to no end.  I’d love to get stuck in an elevator with an NHL team owner for twenty minutes some day, just because I assume I could speak in terms that they understand, and ask them why they run $100MM+ businesses this way.

Interesting. Just from a complete outsiders side, I’d venture to guess the Red Wings and the Devils would be two of them but I am just guessing (and hoping, since i’m a wings fan).

Ah - the 1984 NHL draft - the draft in which Tom Glavine got selected higher than Brett Hull and Luc Robitille.

I have a question about the NHL draft…

How does it work when players are drafted, but stay in college? How long does the drafting team have his rights for? Can players be drafted again by a different team, like in baseball? What happens if returns to college, but has a career-threatening (or -ending) injury? Does he get the full value of his contract or nothing at all?

I’d appreciate it if someone could explain some of the basics with regard to how that system works. Thanks in advance.

Dan - there’s a bit of a long and chequered history on that point.  There was a while where there was a loophole pursuant to which guys could become FA.

Basically though, if you’re drafted while in college, the team owns your rights until you leave college.  Obviously if they sign you, you lose your eligibility to play college.  If you get injured, that’s your problem.

Matthew @ 9 - I think Tom Glavine was a hell of a hockey player.  94 points in 23 games his senior year; he just didn’t want to go to college.  You have to remember that this was the era where Phil Housley and Brian Lawton jumped straight from high school hockey to the NHL. 

Teams still blow top ten picks.  No big surprise that they did a poor job with 3rd round picks.  And to be fair: Robitaille wasn’t Robitaille at age 18; and Brett Hull was playing Tier II junior (even if he did have 105 goals).  They weren’t first round draft picks when they were young.

Using Roy as an example of typical NHL third-rounder would be kind of like using Pujols as an example of a typical MLB 13th rounder, I would think.  Or Piazza as typical of a 62nd rounder.