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Monday, March 17, 2008
New-age FIP
I don’t remember if I linked this ever, so I’ll do so now. I can’t tell right now if he’s handling the out issue properly (is he using regular IP, or adjusted IP?), etc. The basic form is the following:
+1.40 runs: any homerun
+.33 runs: any walk, hit batter, line drive
-.10 runs: anything else
-.30 runs: any strikeout, infield popup
For your average pitcher per 9 innings, you’ll have something like one homerun, 9 walk-types, 9 strikeout types, and 20 other PA. That gives you roughly 0 runs relative to average (someone here can give you more precise numbers).
The main point I want to bring out is that if you want to extend FIP, you can throw in infield popups with your strikeouts, and your linedrives with your walks, always following the form of:
(13*HR + 3*BB - 2*SO)/IP + constant
Is this pretty much the same as what David did?
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/dips-lips-and-hips/
Personally, I like the simplicity of FIP. You can add in all those extra batted ball stats, regress them, etc. etc. I’m not convinced that there is a big enough payoff for the added complexity. Of course, I’m a simple guy.