THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

The NBA doesn’t draw much interest around here.

I tend to dislike the one-size fits all age adjustments that forecasters use in all sports. I hear all the time that a person’s “health age” is not the same as their “real age”, and I would think this also applies to professional athletes. Body type, conditioning, lifestyle choices, stress, all affect a player’s aging curve. Is it even be possible for forecasters to take into account any of the variables I just mentioned?

I would of liked for them to have projected playing time. Instead all we get is their rate per 36 minutes.

Just for fun, there have been only 4 players who played more than 20 minutes per game in their 40’s. They were Jabbar, Karl Malone, Stockton, and Robert Parish. And they were all 40, except Jabbar who was 41 when he averaged 23 minutes per game during his last season. Parish played until he was 43. He actually posted league-average production that season in limited minutes.

My question would be how do these projections handle and differentiate between players who are starters and typically face the opponents “first string” players, as opposed to players who may be used in more of a mop up role or face the opposition’s second string players.  Facing lesser opposition should inflate stats.  Player X who is deep on the bench may average 10 rebounds per 36 minutes because he is always used in vs 2nd string opposition, but if this player were used vs 1st string opposition would see his rate stats dramatically drop.
vr, Xei

Xeifrank,

Each team has different rotations for their starters and substitutes. So, starters and the first few players off the bench probably face the same level of competition on average. The 10th, 11th, and 12th player’s on the bench probably do get the advantage of facing opponents of lesser ability.