THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

What do you expect a player to say?

“I stink at defense.  They should probably move me to an easier position.  Maybe DH”.

If somebody brings up the question, his choices are to avoid it, or offer some kind of explanation, even if it contains dubious logic.

McLouth’s great SB/CS numbers don’t quite match up with his poor range in the field.  I don’t know if he’s really fast, but doesn’t react well in the field, or closer to average speed, but with great instincts and ability to read a pitcher’s moves.

If the Fans’ view of “Speed” can be considered as fielding-independent:
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2008_CF.html

Then, he’s got plus speed, but just a bit above average for a CF.

If I was a pitcher and there was a good base stealer on first, I’d throw over every time he got a lead that was big enough so that he’d have to hit the ground to get back to the bag, and I’d make sure the first baseman knew to hit the baserunner about the head and face with the glove. The guy might end up stealing the base on me, but he’d know it the next morning.

I had a similar discussion about “positioning” and advanced fielding metrics with a writer for the Seattle Times who is doing a piece on evaluating defense.  That seems to be the craze these days.

This reporter spoke with Ibanez who apparently knows some analyst in one of the front offices and has discussed sabermetrics and defensive evaluation with him.  Ibanez also thinks the usual - that these metrics don’t consider positioning, etc. and that is why they are ____ (insert “worthless,” “garbage,” “not too good,” etc.).

Anyway, I explained to the reporter that assuming that we control somewhat for positioning based on the hitter (say, handedness and power) in general and the park (e.g., playing shallow in left field at Fenway, deep in Colorado, etc.), that:

Our evaluations of a player’s defensive talent INCLUDES where he position himself, and rightfully so.  If one CF plays shallow and that is “correct” then his numbers will be better.  If he plays shallow and that is not correct, than his numbers will be worse.

Now, there are a few caveats or qualifications to that.

One, in the short term, because a fielder is moving around a little from batter to batter and our general adjustments are not capturing every move, it is possible that we are not treating that fielder fairly.  However, those thing should even out in the long run and that is just one of many sources of noise in the systems which leads to uncertainty for all players and all sample sizes.  When someone points to any of this noise, which exist in ALL metrics, offensive, pitching, etc., as a reason why the metrics don’t work, well, that is just misguided criticism.  The criticism is correct (yes there is noise which leads to inaccuracies), but the conclusion is wrong (therefore the metrics don’t “work” and should be ignored or mocked).

Two, technically when we say we are including positioning in a fielder’s talent, which we are, and rightfully so, we are actually including the “talent” of the coaches who position the fielders.  I suppose it is possible that some teams/coaches position their fielders where they don’t want to be, but I really don’t think that occurs that much and I don’t think it is going to lead to too many differences between what we think is a fielder’s talent by our metrics and what it actually is (if he were not forced to play where his coaches tell him to play).  I just think it is a little bit of a red herring argument, although, as I said, for sure, our metrics evaluate actual physical fielding ability plus positioning, and positioning is partially dictated by where the coaches tell the fielders to play.  To be sure, there are probably some teams that are better than others at positioning and that will show up, fairly or unfairly, in each of their player’s defensive numbers.

Finally, and this is related to the first one above, if a fielder positions himself in a non-typical way and that is because of some quirk or bias in his pitching staff, beyond the lefty/righty adjustments, then we could over or undervalue that fielder.  That is probably more true in the OF than in the IF.  Again, part of the noise/measurement error in the whole of these systems, but by no means is it fatal.

So basically, these players could point out these weaknesses in these systems (and its not like we already don’t know what they are and constantly mention them and try to mitigate them) and still say, “But otherwise, they are very good, and a 1000 times better than using fielding average or RF, and a great complement to scouting, especially in the long run.” But they won’t.

And the thing about player’s self-evaluating or hearing that, “According to so-and-so, you are a poor fielder...”

First of all, when they hear “poor fielder” they don’t think in terms of “as compared to the average fielder in MLB.” They think “poor” as in the RF’er in Little League.  It’s like when you hear an announcer say that Miguel Cairo or Nefii Perez are “good hitters” which you hear all the time.  Sure, compared to the average person or even compared to the average AAA player, they ARE good hitters, but they happen to be among the worst hitters in MLB, by definition, but a commentator rarely wants to couch it that way.  The other thing is that there are 2 kinds of poor OF’ers.  The ones like Dunn or Burrell, who are bog and lumbering and slow and everyone knows is poor and if you told them they were considered poor fielders by these metrics, they would laugh and say, “Of course.” Or some such thing.

Then there are the other kind of “poor” fielders, who are fast and otherwise very athletic, graceful, etc.  Guys like Jeter and McClouth.  No way that those players are going to recognize that they are poor fielders and we are less sure ourselves.

There is also the category of aging players who used to be good fielders.  The players are also probably not going to recognize that they are no longer good fielders or at least there will be a “lag.”

Excellent post from mgl.

But going back to Tango’s comments about the stolen base, I like that he is including the wear and tear factor. To me, watching games in the real world, and seeing who those players are that could actually benefit (in a theoretical sense) by attempting to steal more often---I don’t want to see it, if I’m the manager. I want them to maximize their SB percentage, regardless of whether they could theoretically create a few more runs by stealing more often but at a lower success rate. IOW, I want the best combo of production vs injury/wearing down risk, and SB % seems to be the best simple way to focus on that.

I suppose it is possible that some teams/coaches position their fielders where they don’t want to be, but I really don’t think that occurs that much…

I’m sure it doesn’t not occur that much, but when it does occur it is biased.  It’s not as if all players are mispositioned 5% of the time each.  Instead, most are mispositioned 2% of the time, while a few are mispositioned 20% of the time.

Furthermore, all we care about is an evaluation of talent, so that we know how he will perform in the upcoming year(s).  We use actual performance to guide us, but we definitely do not want to hold against a fielder is he’s mispositioned, anymore than we hold against a pitcher when they throw a disproportionate number of IBB, or a hitter if he’s told to sacrifice alot.

If a fielder could hold out a hand to us analysts that said “hey, don’t count this BIP, because the manager put me where I don’t want to be”, that would be ideal.  It’s like a “fair catch” on a punt.

Has anyone done work on trying to infer the positioning of outfielders from ball-in-play data? 

It seems like the difference between a center fielder who often played shallow (like McClouth claims to play) and a center fielder who often played deep (like I assert that Torii Hunter plays) should show up in some way over a large enough data sample.  At the least, perhaps a list of extreme cases could be produced.

#7, Yup, I always wanted to do that using plots and cluster analysis.  I think that is one way to do it.  Unfortunately, I don’t know how to do that stuff.

we discussed McLouth’s positioning in another thread last year: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/uzr_and_the_2008_gold_glove_awards/#16

Just an observation: the Pirates were forced to play him in because he freezes like a deer in headlights when a ball is hit at him - significantly longer than average.

Throw in that his up & out path to the ball is plus-plus and his down & out paths are below average and, hey, it’s a no-brainer - let him chase the ball toward the wall instead of watching him run figure eights coming in. 

Always wondered why fast players like Endy Chavez or Dave Roberts or Ichiro who steal plenty of bases can’t stick in center field as well as some seemingly slower players who steal less bases.  Is judgment off the bat really such a difficult and apparently un-learnable skill?

Endy does “stick” at CF.  He was 100% CF in Montreal (300 games all in CF).  His problem was with the Mets having Beltran, a strong enough fielder to push even Mike Cameron.  And now, he’s faced with a younger version of himself who also happens to be a better hitter.  This is what happens to guys who are considered 4th outfielders: you play where you can.

Ichiro is an enigma.

I don’t think you chose good examples here…

Yeah, the examples were off the top of the head, sorry.  But not important to the thought I didn’t think.  I’m sure there have been plenty of players who steal a lot of bases but can’t hack center field.  I don’t have a PI subscription but it would be this I think.  All season spent 90% in left or right and 20 or more SBs.  I don’t remember who played center for the A’s in 1982 but Rickey stole 130 bases from left field that year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsl_finder.cgi#n1=&as=result_batter&offset=0∑=0&min_year_season=1958&max_year_season=2008&isActive=either&isHOF=either&bats=any&throws=any&games_prop=90&games_tot=&exactness=anymarked&pos_pitcher=1&pos_first_base=1&pos_left_field=1&pos_right_field=1&qualifiersSeason=nomin&minpasValS=502&mingamesValS=100&qualifiersCareer=nomin&minpasValC=3000&mingamesValC=1000&c1val=20&c2val=0&c3val=0&c4val=0&min_season=1&max_season=-1&min_age=0&max_age=99&lg_ID=lgAny&lgAL_team=tmAny&lgNL_team=tmAny&lgFL_team=tmAny&lgAA_team=tmAny&lgPL_team=tmAny&lgUA_team=tmAny&lgNA_team=tmAny&orderby=SB&layout=full&c1bsl=SB&c1gtlt=gt&c2bsl=&c2gtlt=gt&c3bsl=&c3gtlt=gt&c4bsl=&c4gtlt=gt&location=pob&locationMatch=is&pob=&pod=&pcanada=&pusa=

KY--

Maybe a guy like Carl Crawford is what you are looking for. He started out in left because they used to say he didn’t have the arm for center (don’t know if that’s true, but that’s what the TV commentators used to say). Soriano tried CF for the Cubs but moved over to left for reasons unknown to me. Alex Rios is probably a better fielder than Vernon Wells, but Wells has the gold gloves and the rep so he gets to play center field.

BTW, I’m just looking at the outfield UZR leaders of the past two seasons and throwing corner outfield names out there.

Well, really what I’m wondering is what % of center field defense is speed and what percentage is judgment; and diving ability? manager fear of center field injury?  I don’t know.  I don’t expect anyone to have an answer currently. Maybe someday.  Corey Hart is faster then Mike Cameron.  Bill Hall is faster then either of them, or was a couple years ago if I can remember right.  Maybe my memory just wants him to be because of the spandex he wore to the time trials?

What is so mysteriously un-learnable that, sometimes, the faster player is not the one who plays center?  That is my question.  I could care less who the example is.  It seems like the ability to tell where the ball is going off the bat is a matter of repetition, not skill.

McLouth is a good example, he seems plenty fast.  As soon as you tell me he’s not a top defender, or worse, one of the worst defenders, my immediate questions is, if he’s fast enough, why isn’t he a top defender?  I was using the example of the fast guy who can’t play center because it seemed to augment the mystery that is why McLouth isn’t great in center.

Fastest players who are horrible fielder: I’ll submit Lonnie Smith from my youth, and Roger Cedeno among contemporaries.

I love it that the Mets had brought in Gary Pettis to “teach” Cedeno to play CF.

When I look at Kotsay, Jenkins, Rowand, Erstad (all white guys, which biases me uncomfortably) play OF, I accept that a huge part of fielding is pure all-out hustle.

I thought of Rondell White as well when I was younger as a great fielder, but, I never looked up his stats to see if it’s true.  He has the same all-out hustle that those guys had.

Rondell White, career TZ of +72.

He had good fielding numbers even towards the end of his career, where teams were often using him at DH.  Probably in an attempt to avoid injury.

Cool, thanks.  I was worried that my recollection didn’t match the models.  The Expos have had tremendous fielding outfielders over the years.

Towards the end of his career, White had one of the noodliest noodle arms that ever noodled, so I’m sure that helped push him into the DH spots for various teams, including the Twins.

Chone Figgins is plenty fast but has bad UZR ratings in the outfield.

White ALWAYS had a poor arm.  I was really shocked how bad an arm it was while with the Expos.  I just can’t understand how I, with my 50mph fastball, could possibly outthrow a pro baseball player.

For his career I have White as a -12 thrower.  Which seems like a fitting example of the relative importance of throwing arm compared to ability to catch the ball for an outfielder.

Mark Whiten fields a ball on one hop, unleashes his cannon, and the baserunner from first, quaking in mortal fear, stops at 2nd.  Same ball hit to Rondell White, the baserunner is ecstatic about the chance to take advantage of White’s noodle in going first to third.  But he has to hustle back to first as White makes a diving catch.

Seems like an easy choice to me as to which one you’d want in the field.

One thing you guys aren’t considering is that CF is a lot more work than LF or RF. The CF is involved in almost every play in the outfield since he is either making the play himself or backing up a corner. Add to that the extra ground he has to cover and I would estimate that he is working about twice as hard as the corners.

The complaint I heard (hearsay) from Ichiro is that his legs were taking a beating in CF. For a guy who’s offense is largely based on his ability to run this would hurt his batting and stealing stats. I guess he didn’t want to sacrifice his numbers for a lousy team that was going nowhere. Seems selfish, but the way the team has been going lately, I can sympathize somewhat.

Just my unexpert observation, but when Swisher was CF’ing for the A’s he looked like he was being worn down to a nub. He’s not the kind of player who makes CF look effortless.

So there’s a durability issue (like being a catcher - though nowhere near that degree) that plays a part in who can hang at the position.

So there’s a durability issue (like being a catcher - though nowhere near that degree) that plays a part in who can hang at the position.

Very good point and one that I never heard articulated before!

Speed is a major element in OF defense - of course. All other things being equal, the speedier player will be the better fielder.  We can probably also say that if you are not fast, there is no way you can be a top defender. So speed might also be a limiting factor in OF defense.  According to my research, the average fast OF’er has a 3 or 4 run edge on a slow outfielder, before we look at anything else. That is why I regress OF UZR according to a player’s speed rating.

All that being said, and being pretty obvious, it is a silly question to ask, “How can a fast player not be a good OF’er?” The answer (obviously) is that there several other skills that go into being a good OF’er (and having good UZR, ZR, plus/minus/etc. numbers).  While speed might be the most important one (whatever that even means), there are certainly other skills. And obviously fast players AND slow players (and everyone in between) vary in how good they are in these other skills.  That is why we have fast players who are not that good overall and slow players who are.  And obviously it is more likely if you are a bad fielder that you are also slow and vice versa.

Asking “How can a fast player not be a good OF’er (even though he likely is)?” is like asking how can a fast player not be a good base stealer or how come a strong player does not hit a lot of HR’s or vice versa (ever see how big and strong Mike Matheny was or how small Dustin Pedroia is?).

"is like asking how can a fast player not be a good base stealer”

That doesn’t seem like a silly question at all to me.  It appears true that some fast players can’t steal bases, but it certainly is mystifying to me why that is the case.  I have no idea what skill used in base stealing besides speed would be so unlearnable that the players, after some practice, wouldn’t be on relatively equal footing.  It seems to me to be the equivalent of saying any two people in this thread can’t learn to play the odds on any given poker situation almost equally well.  You may learn it faster than me, but eventually I will know the right call according to the odds in every situation also.

“or how come a strong player does not hit a lot of HR’s” Hitting home runs involving hitting the ball just right as well.  That appears to me, an outsider, to involve much more athleticism, and therefore is less learnable, than anything involved in stealing bases.

Is there something I don’t know about stealing bases besides, “decide when to run”, “accelerate quickly”, “run”, “slide appropriately”.  Among those only acceleration appears to me to involve skills that are mostly natural ability.  And so I remain mystified as to why any fast player can’t steal a base as well as the next fast player.

You are surprised that that all fast players can’t learn to read pitchers, get good jumps, anticipate certain kinds of pitches, recognize and categorize who are the best and worst catchers and pitchers to run on, etc.  I wonder why all dogs can’t learn to shake hands.  Seems like they should be.

from an article about Lou Brock and base stealing:

Then came Brock, who elevated base-stealing to an art. He scrutinized pitchers, hoping to learn their cadence and rhythm. He wanted to be able to recognize the split-second the pitcher had committed himself to throw home. Brock also studied a pitcher’s habits, hoping to find a pattern so he would know when a curve was coming. Since curves take a second of a fraction longer to reach home plate, Brock preferred to run on a curveball.

Brock didn’t just watch pitchers, he filmed them on an eight-millimeter camera. At home, he studied the films, watching for signs, twitches, anything that might help him read a pitcher better.

A former math major in college, Brock calculated that there were 3.5 seconds between the time the ball left the pitcher’s hand, landed in the catcher’s mitt, and ended up back at second base. Brock outlined his base-stealing strategy in a 1974 Newsweek article.

“I can’t run from first to second in 3.5 seconds,” he admitted. “I don’t think I could when I was younger, and I’m slower now. So the key is that instant when the shift of the pitcher’s anatomy tells me he can’t come to first. He has to go to the plate. I go on that shift. That extra instant is all I need to make it safely.”

Rally/21 - great point, one that gets lost.  Tango, you probably remember my piece on Lofton vs Finley.  Towards the end of his career, Finley had a much better arm, while Lofton had way better range.  Fans tended to see Finley as the better player because it’s hard to see that he’s not getting to a ball every three games, while Lofton’s wimpy arm is on display every game.  The Scouting Report bears this bias out…