THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Dye, Jeter, and Pujols are probably equivalent in terms of fielding.
If you aren’t making the position adjustments on defense you have to make them on offense, something WPA doesn’t do.

I don’t believe in making “positional adjustment on hitting”.  It’s one of those silly things that people do because it’s nice and easy.

When I said they are equivalent in fielding, I meant in terms of their fielding talent and position.  So, a below-average SS and an above-average 1B would be equivalent. 

The average-SS to average-1B fielding gap is about 15 runs.  So, if you have a 1B that is 7 or 8 runs above average, and a SS that is 7 or 8 runs below average, they are in effect equivalent, fielding-wise.

What about Beltran in the NL...his WPA is only at 4.81 but plays CF while howard and pujols play 1B

Beltran and Cabrera both have good claims—perhaps better than Howard’s—if you look at context-neutral offensive production.  And I would argue you should.

If you ARE going to look at WPA, you have to credit Howard with the fact that he has more playing time, so probably deserves credit for another .5 wins or so. 

Tango:  is there a WPA leaderboard somewhere, or do you have to look up players team-by-team?

I obviously wasn’t doing anything exhaustive, and simply took the top 5 that FAngraphs.com publishes.  In the case of Beltran, his fielding would be worth at least one win above Pujols’.

Pujols has 14.8 WA and 7.4 LA

Howard is at 15.8 WA and 9.5 LA

In order for Pujols to catch up to Howard, he has to add 1.0 WA and 2.1 LA.

The replacement level for a hitter is .464 of WA/(WA+LA).  So, Pujols’ replacement, given 3.1 GA, would have done 1.4 WA and 1.7 LA.

That puts Pujols still at +0.8 wins above Howard, just on hitting.

And, Pujols is likely a win above Howard, fielding-wise.

Tom - Pujols and jeter equivalent on fielding ??? I don’t get it.

Assume Pujols is 7 runs above the average 1B, fielding-wise.

Assume Jeter is 7 runs BELOW the average SS, fielding-wise.

Assume that, if you move the average SS to 1B, he’d be 14 runs above the average 1B.  Or, if you move the average 1B to SS, he’d be 14 runs below the average SS.

Work it out. 
#1: Jeter = Avg SS - 7
#2: Pujols = Avg 1B + 7
#3: 14 = Avg SS - Avg 1B

The 1st question is:
Avg SS = Jeter + 7
The 3rd equation is:
Avg SS = Avg 1b + 14

That makes it:
Jeter + 7 = avg 1b + 14
Jeter = avg 1b + 7

Which matches equation #2.

I don’t know what Pujols and Jeter are fielding-wise, but it’s fair to say that they are equivalent.

Using the WSh stats on the HBT for def. WSh, and using the James “short-form” method of figuring Wsh (which assumes every defender is avg, I believe), Jeter comes out at -.37 WAA, and Pujols at +.09, relative to avg players at their positions. Prorating Tango’s 14 run difference (per 162 GP, I’m assuming), and I wind up with Jeter at +.19, and Pujols at -.42, relative to an avg fielder. So, about a .6 win difference, in favor of the SS.

Using this sort of analysis, and adding it to WPA, I think it’s Jeter in the AL, and pretty much a dead heat between Beltran and Pujols in the NL.

Unless Wsh is wrong about Jeter’s D and he is sucking like he used to…

Well Tom, I don’t know how much of a fan you are of BP’S stats - But they have Pujols 14 runs above average, jeter at -2.

I have not updated since the ASB, but then Jeter was at -13 per 150 games in UZR, about what we would expect.  Of course, since you are using WPA for offense, you should the use the equivalent on defense.  I’ve never seen anyone compute a defensive WPA but it can be easily done if you have the PPB data of course.

And you can argue all day long about what stats or metric to use for an MVP award, but I cannot see any legitimat argument for using a “context-neutral” measure of offensive performance, as an MVP is very much by definition NOT context neutral.  In the past, ONLY something that, in some way, shape or form, helps a team win, has ANY value whatsoever.  A home run in the 9th inning of a 10-0 blowout has no value and should not be considered in an MVP award.  To some extent it does, because the voters are going to look at a player’s stats at the end of the year and they are not going to remember exactly which ones did or did not contribute to a win or at least contribute towards giving a team a chance to win.

Top, BP’s stats are saying they are equivalent, then!

Pujols being 14 runs above the average 1B, and Jeter being 2 runs below the average SS, and since the average SS is around 15 runs better than the average 1B, that makes them equivalent!

Tom - I had realized that after I already posted it.  My mistake.  Be that as it may, if and when I buy your book, do I HAVE to pay by credit card and not by check ?

You can send a check or money order (23.90$) to:
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