THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I looked at something like this when he had his 2,000th hit.  Short version, no matter how you slice it, no one’s ever gotten hits like Ichiro.  Link:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/ichiros-2000th-hit/

He is a great hitter with exceptional speed which also happens to be tailor made to his hitting style.  That is a rare combination, which makes him one of the, if not THE, greatest “hitter” in the history of baseball.  That does not make him nearly one of the most valuable of course.  Somehow though, he is probably underrated, but I’m not sure why. Maybe because he is aloof and plays for...what is the name of that team again?

Poz has a superb article on this.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2010/09/nolan-and-ichiro.html

Ichiro is a unique and exciting player, and given that he weighs as much as one of David Ortiz’s legs, he maximizes his talent playing as he does.  At the same time, your second, third and fourth best players better be pretty good, since we know that a team with Ichiro as its best player and the rest as mediocrities will not succeed.

Ichiro is a fantastic hitter, and he has (but rarely uses) more power than people give him credit for.  Nonetheless, Pujols has the highest career batting average of active players (if only by the tiniest of margins over Ichiro), and with loads more power. (.331/.425/.625 compared to .331/.376/.430).  Ichiro can hardly claim the title of “THE, greatest “hitter” in the history of baseball” even among active players.

I put “hitter” in quotes to reflect the fact that I meant, “as in BA.” With park adjustments, I would think that Ichiro’s BA is substantially higher than Pujols and therefore any active player.  However, to declare him THE best hitter, even referring to BA only, in the HISTORY of baseball, is probably more than a bit hyperbolic…

"Ichiro is a fantastic hitter, and he has (but rarely uses) more power than people give him credit for.”

Depends who you ask.  Some people love to talk about his awesome raw power and how he could hit 40 homeruns if he only wanted to.  Personally, after 10 seasons I don’t see any reason to give him credit for any more power than what he’s shown on the field.

The people who tout Ichiro’s rarely seen power also often fail to explain what would happen to his batting average if he used it regularly. If Ichiro starts swinging for the fences, what happens to those 40 infield singles? How much would his average drop in order to get 25 HRs out of him?

"Personally, after 10 seasons I don’t see any reason to give him credit for any more power than what he’s shown on the field.”

We’ve had this discussion before, and I tend to agree. I think that it is more of a legend than anything else.

On the other hand, there are some players who hit few home runs and really have no power, such that even in batting practice they can’t hit any out.  Ichiro probably does have power, for a small guy, who does not hit a lot of home runs.  I’m not sure anyone is suggesting that he could improve his overall value or even keep the same value if he were to hit with more power.  Only that he is strong enough to do so (and doesn’t because his value would go down)…

Per Ichiro’s power, I’m mostly in the camp that says, “if doesn’t happen, then it doesn’t count.”

However, I do believe that if Ichiro were to participate in a home run derby, he might do really wells.  Or, at least a lot better than hitters with similar AVG/SLG profiles would do.  For example, he’d destroy Juan Pierre.

In other words, you might have four kinds of people:
1. Wladimir Balentien, who can hit the ball really far, just not in real game situations.
2. Russell Branyan who can hit long home runs consistently in MLB games.
3. Ichiro, who can’t hit the ball really far, but has other hitting talent that would allow him to hit the ball 375+ feet consistently in non-game situations.
4. Juan Pierre, who basically can’t hit the ball 375 feet.

Maybe there’s a type between 2 and 3 that can hit 25 “just-barely’s” in game situations.  Any name examples?