THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I thought the season was 162 games long because 154 is not evenly divisible by 9.  162 games is also the perfect length for a league with two six-team divisions that wants to play an unbalanced schedule.

Why is base running so terrible in the big leagues?

Chicks dig the long ball.

Don’t underestimate the decptiveness of the defensive players at the ML level, nor their arm strength, etc.

If HS and NCAA defenders were able to deke and decieve runners they way ML infielders/etc do, you’d see far more “bad baserunning”.

Funny story: A youth team cannot keep a certain runner from stealing second. All three times he’s stolen and it wasn;t close. The 4th time, rather than throwing to second, the catcher throws the ball up in the air like a pop up. 2B comes charging in yelling “got it, got it”. Runner retreats to 1B after maing it all the way to 2B and sliding. 2B catches the ball and throws the runner out trying to retrat to 1B. This is an extreme examples, but ML IF’s are always actling like they have a play on the ball, when they don’t. Occassionally they get runners out and makes the highlights.

IMO, we’re over-reacting on a few plays that made sportscenter. Runners jog home on a hit 99% of the time, occassionally the D gets smart and throws behind the trail runner, retiring him before the run scores. How often does that happen? 2 or 3 times per season, or 0.0001% of the time?

The baserunning at the ML level is better than any other level.

What are we comparing ML baserunning to? Another era? The ideal? Perfection? How we’d do it if we wer ML’ers?

There was one play I saw a few weeks ago, involved the Phillies (can’t remember if they were on offense or defense… I think on offense).

Phillies had a runner on 1B, and there was a popup to 2B.  Might have been the Reds.  Phillips drops the ball on purpose.  The runner on 1B retreats back to 1B. 

The Reds firstbaseman, instead of touching the runner, touches 1B!!  That’s a putout on the batter.  No more force on the runner.

The runner on 1B, now perfectly safe on 1B, steps off 1B!!!  The firstbaseman tags the runner for a DP.

A perfect two wrongs make a right.

Tango, I believe it was Jayson Werth and in the same game where Werth told the dad who caught the foul ball to “get out of my [expletive] way”.

Here is the video:  http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=9792353

Adam Dunn was traded in 2008 from the Reds to the Diamondbacks.

On the complete slacker side, a couple weeks ago some Royal hit a ball into the gap and was cutoff.  The player was thrown out for the 3rd out at 2nd base.  Jose Guillen was on 3rd at time and didn’t make it to home before the out was recorded.

I won’t even get into the BS play at 3rd last night against the A’s

Life as a Royals fan.

The spread from the best hitter to the worst hitter who plays regularly is probably close to 90 runs (+60 to -30, give or take).  From the best to worst fielder, including position adjustment, is probably 60 runs (+30 to -30, from the best SS or CF to the worst LF/1B).

From the best to worst baserunner is more like 15 runs, so you can get away with poor baserunning if you have value in the other areas.

Saying that “base running” is poor is like saying that the average person is stupid or that all of your friends’ kids are smart and cute.

Now, if you want to say that base running in years X through Y is worse than in years A through B, that’s fine, but you better have evidence for that.  You also better define good and bad base running.  If players are bigger and stronger, but slower, is that automatically poorer base running?  Are fewer SB “bad base running?” What about a higher SB percentage?  Is that “better base running?” Etc.

The comments I hear on the Pirates’ broadcasts about ‘bad base running’ are based on decisions and not results.

For example, I think it was Lastings Milledge who on a ball to right field turned himself around to look at the ball while approaching second, trying to decide to go to third. This was contrasted a few days later when on an errant pickoff throw to first, Erik Kratz had his eyes on the third base coach as he approched second, and followed the coaches instruction to advance to third.

Because Milledge forgot the proper technique, he cost himself time, which will increase the probability of not advancing to the next base, or worse yet being thrown out.