from Amazon
Thursday, September 14, 2006
More Leverage Index
Studes always gives me at least one thing I didn’t know in the ten things he didn’t know. When it comes to Leverage Index, it’s an easy sell to me, even if I’m the salesman. It’s clear what it’s doing, it comes up with easily understandable measures. But, the problem with these “single-numbers” is that the reader has to work to understand what you did. That’s where Studes comes in. He does the work for you. For example:
He runs through all the highest-leveraged PA of Pujols, Ortiz, and Jeter, three of the leading MVP contenders, and at the top of the list in clutchiness. Rather than giving you the single number, we actually see what these guys did in the clutch, PA by PA. Let’s start with Pujols. In his 15 highest-leveraged PA:
Pujols has gone 8 for 12 with three home runs and three intentional walks, for a total WPA of 2.0, almost exactly his clutchiness score
Two things to note here. One, we see he’s been sensational with the game on the line. That’s what’s good about LI, that we can numerically express each of his hundreds of PA, so that we can pick and choose those PA that have the highest level of fire. Next thing to note is that his total WPA in these 15 PA is +2.00. His average LI in these 15 PA was 4.28, meaning that each PA, on average, was worth 4.3 PA. If you take the shortcut, we can do 2.00/4.28 to give us 0.47 as his WPA if the situation was of average LI (1.0) and not super-high. To go the long route, take each WPA and divide it by the LI, and add up the total. This gives us +0.48. So, he adds +1.52 wins, because he timed his performance (by design or luck, your choice), in just these 15 PA. This is his clutchiness score for these 15 PA (sort of). His actual clutchiness score is still even higher, but he gets the biggest boost just on these 15 PA.
Repeating for Ortiz, his WPA in his super-high-clutch PA is +3.40, but if we remove the leverage from the mix, he’d have been +0.77 wins, making his clutchiness in these 14 PA an astounding +2.63 wins, and way above his overall clutchiness score. In short, Ortiz clutchiness is completely captured in these 14 PA.
On the other side is Derek Jeter, who gets only +1.58 WPA in his 13 high-clutch PA, with a clutchiness score of +1.22 wins. Jeter has simply been able to more evenly spread his clutchiness around, unlike Ortiz who has concentrated them the most.
***
Later on, Studes asks for people to buy the THT book, and, if possible, directly from the publisher. Speaking as one who wrote/published a book, I can’t tell you enough how it’s important to buy directly from the publisher. The profit margins are virtually non-existant on Amazon books, and very high directly from the publisher. I know the reader saves a good deal of money, 5 or more bucks, but, as studes also said, and I believe, consider the extra money as a donation for more R&D.
The same applies for any author who you truly want to support. Baseball Prospectus, Bill James, or whoever. If they hold a special place for you, make the extra effort.
As luck would have it, I pre-ordered the HBT (along with the 2007 B James HB) yesterday, not from the HBT or Amazon, but from Acta. They sent me an email ad, and I clicked and ordered. I’m not sure how much hassle it will be to cancel that order, but I’ll take a look.
I’m wondering, though, if it makes that big a difference, why does the HBT sell thru those other outlets? AFAIK, The Book was only available thru the publisher. I’m sure all people who would buy the HBT annual visit the site regularly, and would respond to the ad there.