THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I don’t believe MGL’s analysis is correct, in this situation.  In the regular season I believe these comments are largely justified, however, I don’t believe it is accurate for the post season.

With 18 outs still remaining on the board, I believe you proceed with your optimal pitching strategy regardless of a score differential of this magnitude.  What is the tipping point?  I’m not sure, but I don’t believe it is a 6 run lead with less than 9 outs used.

Also, it’s worth pointing out that Cliff Lee’s optimal pitching strategy is generally well suited for pitching with leads (really any situation) because he attacks hitters rarely giving in by allowing a free pass.

On the topic of sub-optimal plays, how about that soft liner Utley fielded in the 2nd inning with no outs and Manny on first?
Utley could have easily played it on a hop instead of catching it and gotten the force-out at first and catch Manny in a rundown between first and second for an easy double-play.

"That is why sabermetrics will someday play a big part (I think) in how players play and managers manage the game.”

I sure hope so.  I think you’re right, but cripes does it feel like it’s a looooonnnnng way off.  I get so sick & tired of hearing the same baseball ‘truthinesses’ regurgitated every bleeping season by coaches & announcers alike.

I know there are players that seems to appreciate newer & more accurate statistical analyses, but beyond simple things like not sac bunting as much & valuing OBP, I’m not sure there are any managers that actually utilize sabermetrics correctly in their in-game strategies.  Hell, we still have to hear most managers explain that they pinch-hit with so-and-so because he was 8-24 (or any other small sample) lifetime against the pitcher.

bikozu, I don’t know why fielders don’t intentionally drop more fly balls and line drives in order to get the DP or substitute a slow runner for a fast one.  I think it is because one, it takes a split second decision to do that, and two, they are afraid that they might not get any outs at all.  Obviously there is a break even point.  Also, the umpire can call a batter out if a fielder drops a fly ball (I’m not sure about a line drive) intentionally without letting it hit the ground first.

MHS, there isn’t a tipping point.  You ALWAYS pitch differently depending on the score and inning.  If the game had started in the first inning with Philly having a 6-0 lead, of course Lee should pitch differently.  It might not be a big difference in the 3rd inning, but it IS a difference.  It has to be.  It CAN’T be the same.  Not possible.

"I don’t know why fielders don’t intentionally drop more fly balls and line drives in order to get the DP or substitute a slow runner for a fast one.”

Omar Vizquel made a play like that earlier in the year.  I couldn’t find a video, but Lookout Landing has a nice descprition of the play:

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/8/2/973378/54-51-a-few-game-notes

MGL/#4

A few years ago I remember Mike Lowell tried to drop a line drive right at him with runners on 1st/2nd to try to get the easy DP but the ump called the batter out on it.  Lowell might have made it too obvious - it was right in his glove and he clearly dropped it for the sake of making that play.

Now, whether or not that should be called that way is another argument altogether…

Yeah, I don’t think I’ve ever heard of the “infield line drive” rule.

I do think many pitchers aren’t skilled enough to let their guard down and pitch to the score.  Which are and which aren’t - got me!

We have to be careful and not assume every pitcher has enough skill to succeed.

"I don’t know why fielders don’t intentionally drop more fly balls and line drives in order to get the DP or substitute a slow runner for a fast one.”

So I actually tried this in a company softball game a few years back.  I’m playing SS with a runner on 1B.  A catchable soft liner is hit between myself and second base.  I decided to drop it intentionally, planning to pick it up, step on second and throw to first to complete the DP.

So what happens?  As I go to pick it up, while moving towards second, I kick the ball into RF.  Instead of 1 out and a runner on first (what we have if I just catch the liner), we ended up with 0 out and runners on first and third.  My brilliance turned to disaster in a split second and what I got was all of my teammates looking at me with a WTF?!? expression on their faces.

From now on, I take the guaranteed out, but that’s just me.

6.05(L) - an infielder intentionally drops a fair fly ball or line drive with a runner on first, first and second, first and third or first, second and third before two are out the batter is declared out, the ball is dead and runners return to their originally occuppied bases.

APPROVED RULING: the batter is not out if the fieler lets the ball touch the ground first except in the case of teh infield fly rule.

The key thing Vizquel did is let the ball hit the ground first.  The umpire has to decide if the ball is touched first if the drop is intentional.

"You ALWAYS pitch differently depending on the score and inning.... It might not be a big difference in the 3rd inning, but it IS a difference.  It has to be.  It CAN’T be the same.  Not possible.”

Well, if the difference were very small, then Martinez and Darling would effectively be right --you don’t want your pitcher really changing his approach.  And you certainly don’t want him throwing all FBs—that’s a statement I would expect you to strongly support.

And how different can the correct approach really be?  I suppose you want your pitcher to reduce the odds of big inning, at cost of higher probability of giving up 1 or 2 runs.  But how much can pitchers really do that?  They can certainly reduce their BBs, at the cost of higher BA/SLG.  Let’s say they can reduce OBP by ten points, with 15 point jump in SLG (that’s about what they do with bases loaded).  What does that really do to the probability of giving up 6+ runs over 5-6 innings? I can’t imagine it changes the odds much at all.

Of course you don’t throw ALL fastballs.  And yes, the difference in approach is small in the 3rd inning.  But surely the difference is large in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings, maybe even the 6th.  My point is that there IS a difference and rather than Buck and Darling pointing out that the pitcher should NOT be throwing any differently, they should be pointing out that he SHOULD be throwing a little differently, and then a lot differently as the game goes on.

An easy example is the IBB or the “pitch around.” Surely in the 3rd inning of a 0-0 game, you might IBB A-Rod or Teixeira with a runner on second and 1 or 2 outs.  Obviously not so in a 6-0 game.  Say the count is 3-0 on A-Rod (or Teixeira) with 2 outs in the 3rd inning of a 0-0 game.  You might be a little reluctant to groove a fastball and A-Rod could certainly be swinging.  With a 6-0 lead, A-Rod is almost certainly taking and you can throw a fastball right down the middle with impunity.

Do you need any more examples?