THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

It’s nice to see coaches who aren’t total meatballs. I do think hockey has an important momentum component within the confines of a single game (this is probably most apparent in basketball though), but the idea of momentum and “feeding off yesterday’s starting pitcher” are so ridiculous.

It is sad that we have to give coaches props for not agreeing with something stupid.

That being said, I would guess that head coaches in almost any other smart are much smarter than major league managers.  Having intelligence and an analytical mind seem to be a requisite for getting a coaching job in most other sports.  I’m not sure what the requisites are in baseball. I imagine that if I gave a “test” to major league managers that all or nearly all of them would fail, and dismally so.  In fact, imagine if a major league manager tried to answer our questions of the day. Most of them would either not understand what the heck we were talking about it or they would laugh at our (correct) answers.

“What do you mean take 60% of the time on a 3-2 count?  Are you kidding me? I don’t want my batters standing there with the bat on their shoulders!”

“Of course I don’t want my batters swinging after the pitcher just walked 2 hitters in a row without throwing a strike!”

“Don’t tell me the Fireplugs and Avalanche are bad teams!  They are excellent teams!  There are 6 all-starts on those teams! Count em - six!”

“What the hell is game theory?”

"Momentum” is probably the most repeated word in hockey.  Turn on any game and you’ll hear it probably 14 times at least.  Talking about “momentum” is what qualifies as “analysis” in the hockey world.  EG:

“Event X happened, so team A had the momentum...until Event Y happened, then team B had the momentum then Event B happened, and it looked like team A would take back the momentum, until event C happened, and so team A kept the momentum.”

You may think I am fabricating this, but I’m really not.  It is brain-melting stuff.  I’ve often wondered what the hell kind of “value” that “momentum” had if it can change on a dime by, according to sportscasters, just about anything (Goals, good saves, hits, the crowd, fights, etc. etc. etc.) It is the post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc fallacy gone berzerk.

Anyway, it is my least favorite word in all of sports now.  I rate it even lower than “grit” and “heart” though not by much.

Also: I just found out that Dan Bylsma was coaching the Pens.  Woops, somehow I missed that one.  I knew they fired Therrien earlier in the year, but ... Dan Bylsma? That’s like if an MLB team canned their manager and gave the job to AJ Hinch.  Wait...what?

When a team is up 1-0:

This is an important game!  It’s either 2-0, or 1-1.

When a team is up 2-0:

This is an important game!  They can put it away at 3-0, or let the other team back at 2-1.

When a team is up 2-1:

This is an important game!  It’ll be tough to come back 3-0, and it’ll be a real downer if they tie it up 2-2.

And so on…

Let’s not also forget that Game 1 is itself a very important game because it “sets the tone,” whatever the hell that means.

"The all-important game” reminds me of when a TV commentator says, when the count is 2-2 on a batter with the bases loaded in a close game (or some situation like that), “He doesn’t want to go 3-2 on the batter (inferring that he is going to throw a “fat” pitch).”

I always turn to whoever I am watching the game with and say, “No, stupid, he doesn’t mind all that much going to 3-2 (any more than he minds going to 1-0, or 2-1, or whatever).  What he REALLY minds is going from 3-2 to 4-2!”

IOW, he doesn’t want to go to 3-2, but it’s not the end of the world.  He certainly doesn’t want to throw a fat pitch with the bases loaded and a 2-2 count just because he doesn’t want to go to 3-2.  On the other hand, when the count is 3-2, you have to give up a good portion of your chance to get the guy out with a good pitch just to be sure that you throw a strike.  Even then, you have to be willing to give up a run with a walk in order to avoid at least 2 runs with a hit.  You DON’T throw a fastball right down the middle with the bases loaded and a 3-2 count (and 2 outs).