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Monday, June 08, 2009

Mike Smith

By Tangotiger, 03:19 PM

I was the sole developer in what Mike Smith, former NHL GM, is talking about here.  Through 2007, anyway.  I’m not sure who is involved today.

In the fall of 2005 I helped a business consultant, Richard Coleman, put together a company, Coleman Analytics, which provides hockey analytics to NHL GMs and coaches. It’s pretty much hush-hush. We limit the number of franchises because we believe the information is too valuable to let every team have it.

The clients that use it keep that fact confidential and we do as well. This is easier than you would assume since most GMs have little interest in our data. Every coach who has seen it has wanted it, but unfortunately some of their GMs weren’t so keen on the idea. It’s called teamwork – or is it the lack thereof?

It is my work here that made me realize that acting in a “part-time” capacity (consultant) for many teams made more sense than working full-time for one team.  Simply put, you can leverage your work across multiple teams.  You get to price yourself lower, per team, and make up for it by getting more teams.

It was a great experience.  I created as good a database system as I ever wrote, in hockey or baseball.  I wrote tons of scripts to download and parse data.  The NHL data itself was not always clean, and I spent alot of time cleaning up all the files.  Lots of good stuff came out of that work.


#1    Tyler      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 15:49

I was reading something in your archives the other day about your work in hockey and saw that you mentioned you were part of a three person operation, with one guy at the front end who had great access to NHL teams and kind of wondered if you were part of that group.  As you may be aware, there were discussions about that post from Smith at my site and at Lowetide’s - are you able to talk about it at all?


#2    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 15:54

I’m not sure what I can and cannot say.  I suppose you can ask questions, and I’ll either answer or say no comment.

But, yes, good memory!  I forgot I had mentioned that I was part of a 3-man group.  I will say that the NHL seems to be a very close-knit group, and having Mike Smith be the sales lead was extremely important. 

There have been several articles on this.  There was one by Ken Campbell in The Hockey News a few years ago.  There was another one in the Montreal Gazette.  I forget the writer’s name.  Don something.  MacDonald maybe?  There was one in the Sports Business Journal as well.  You can probably piece it all together and in some places you’d think “Ah, Tango!”.


#3    Ryan JL      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 16:19

So this is cool, of course. 

My skepticism would of course be, how useful is this?  Is knowing “which players score when teh game is on the line” actually useful (predictive) information, or is it like “Wilson Valdez has a 900 OPS against Zito, so put him in!” How much of this data is useful information for GM’s/coaches?


#4    Tyler      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 16:19

Well, I’ll try one based on the linked article.  Smith is selling the idea of clutch there.  There was bigtime skepticism at my site and Lowetide’s about the value of that information - do you buy the idea that there’s value in the clutch analysis?


#5    Tyler      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 16:24

http://www.canada.com/topics/sports/story.html?id=4daa5bd0-7bab-43fe-bd8d-4cd890b15e04

Here’s the MacDonald article.  Interesting that Smith is on there about the clutch guys too.  Personally, having looked through the data, I think you’d have a hell of a time getting enough data to generate anything predictive.


#6    Ryan JL      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 16:27

I’m also going to assume that Mike’s “mystery player” is Jumbo Joe.

I, of course, never saw much value in this form of analysis.  But if Tango says there is value, I obviously need to re-evaluate.


#7    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 16:48

I have no comment on Mike Smith’s specific claims regarding clutch.

I will say that there is value in at least knowing who is playing the clutch minutes.  And I will also say that I believe in clutch performance in the playoffs to some extent (Messier, Claude Lemieux, Patrick Roy) as well as non-clutch (Thornton, Mogilny).

At the very least, you can construct an extra profile of your players, which, when it comes down to it, is all you are really being asked to do.


#8          (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 17:52

Tango - is there somebody whose regular-season stats came from beating up on weak competition in blowouts?  And who can’t be trusted in close games?

There are probably lots of guys who get the tough minutes who we might not expect.

Also, Thornton has 35 points in his last 40 playoff games.  He’s a -2.  Is he legendarily unclutch?


#9    Tyler      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 18:02

Re: Thornton.  He’s played his last 40 playoff games against the following teams, with their PK rankings beside them:

Anaheim (14th)
Dallas (2rd)
Nashville (3rd)
Detroit (7th)
Nashville (3rd)
Edmonton (8th, with the caveat that they were phenomenal in the second half of the year and once they fixed the goaltending)
Nashville (5th)

That’s some hellacious penalty killing.  He’s traditionally been at his best on the PP, that’s where he posts his most dominant performances, pointswise.


#10    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/06/08 (Mon) @ 20:17

I do regression toward the mean, which is not necessarily what most non-techies would do.  So, I’m not big in all the specific conclusions that others would make regarding specific players.  I’m more into trying to give more dimensions.


#11    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/06/09 (Tue) @ 16:34

I can’t listen to this at the office, but I’ll check it out when I’m home:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105064989


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