THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Mike Silva Chronicles - Part 3: WAR and finances

Would it be fair to say that value of WAR is in the financial analysis of a player? Similar to what Fangraphs does by putting a dollar value on a players performance?

WAR (wins above replacement) is the production of a player over and above what AAA non-prospect would produce.  This has value for finances and it has value for a retrospective look at a player’s production.  It also has some value to his future worth.

At some point, you have to put a single number, because you have to pay someone a single number (his salary) and at some point you have to choose who will make the 25-man roster or not, or decide whether to trade a player or not.  So, the idea is to try to amalgamate everything you can into one number, so that that forms the basis of yes/no decision.  This is no different than you as a worker in corporate america, who does alot of little things that don’t show up on the balance sheet, and yet, every year, you are given an annual review with a final single score, and a final single salary.