THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thanks for this Tango. Really a great read.

I enjoyed reading through the entire series, but especially enjoyed these closing two paragraphs.  If anyone ever asks me why I “waste” so much time on this stuff I’m simply going to point them to those two paragraphs.

Excellent closing statement. My feelings exactly.

And i would add something more as a reader… the learning process.

It is enjoyable because we all love baseball, but we are really getting an education out of this. Not only are we able to understand bayes logic or apply and understand simple regression models (Not an expert by any means, but i now get it, i had two semesters of “Experimental design” in college and i learned a lot more from reading your work than any class).

And, the most important aspect… the collaboration. Really, discussing this topics with people for all over the world. It’s very rewarding.

Thanks for the series Tango, and thanks to Mike for asking the questions and inquiring rather than doing something most of the traditional mainstream media types refuse to do. Most of the questions asked were legitimate concerns of those not heavily involved in the sabermetric community, and it was nice to hear someone ask them and someone answer them as clearly as Tango did.

I agree with Steve/#3, I get that question all the time, and I don’t even do the hardcore stuff. It’s something I enjoy, and I’d gladly pay the time to do it, if I have it.

Great closing.  Not everyone is motivated by the almighty dollar and people do things just because they enjoy them.  The same “what’s the point?” question could be asked of Mr. Silva about his blogging.

While I enjoy this series as an education tool for those who are unfamiliar with some sabermetric, it should be noted that many, myself included, have publicly and privately reached out to Mr. Silva to ask any questions about sabermetrics he has.  An example:

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/8/7/979715/you-always-fear-what-you-dont

He’s been saber-trolling for months now and, despite offers to explain these concepts he very clearly misunderstands, he just kept up the uninformed trolling.  He now claims that this kind of “discourse” is what he’s all about, which couldn’t be further from the truth.  Whatever.  I expect another page hitzzz inducing troll post from him within a month or so.  If not, then great, maybe this series helped.

"It seems like a very time consuming hobby with little reward.”

i say that to myself whenever i consider my sister in law’s pet rabbits.  THAT, is a crazy hobby, IMHO.

doesnt seem all that crazy, tho, when you consider utility and not bucks as the ultimate reward.  money is just a means to an end after all.

I’m of the opinion that the bashing should only start after the education.  I can accept that Silva was uneducated, so there’s no reason to bash on his ignorance.  If he’s willfully ignorant, that’s another question.

So, I think he’s now in the position to make an informed opinion.  If he continues to misrepresent things, then you can rightfully give him that metaphorical bloody nose.

I’d also like to thank you, Tom.  You did a fantastic job answering all ten questions, and any reasonable person with an open mind should be better able to understand the sabrmetric community because of that.

Tom,

I agree completely with GTWMA.

These are very good, very thorough, very gentle (as in, solidly, logically constructed, rarely forceful in language because they don’t need to be) answers to some rather interesting questions.

They were a pleasure to read, as your writing usually is.

And I especially like the last two paragraphs…

Thanks!

This final question from Mike Silva astonishes and saddens me on 2 levels:

1) That someone can think in 2010 (almost) that advanced statistics is a fad is quite amazing. To think that gaining a deeper understanding of how runs are generated and avoided, how games are won and lost is “just a fad”, and does not have real monetary value to teams that operate multi-million businesses, come on!
2) Even worse is his follow up question. Behind the 2nd portion of his question lies the assumption that the only human pursuits that interest us are those that provide us with financial gain. I find this outlook appalling.
In any case, your answers are truly excellent. It reminds me, in a sense, of G.H Hardy’s wonderful book “A Mathematician’s Apology” in which he explains why he loves mathematics and spends his life on it.

I agree with your second point, Jud. This seems to be a theme in several of Mike’s questions and blog posts.  It seems odd to me because there are so many examples and plenty of evidence in support of Tom’s views dating back to the old USENET and even before that.  While there certainly are people in the community focused on the monetary value (and certainly more than in the past, now that more recognize its monetary value), the sabrmetric community still bears a significant resemblence to a scholarly community that seeks and shares a lot of knowledge for its own value.

If you’ve ever heard a scientist describe the moment they realized a new discovery, it’s hard for me to think that you can be human and not feel that sense of wonder.  And, I know I had that some feeling (Ok, maybe not exactly the same) but something like that feeling reading Voros’ article on FIP.  My initial reaction, probably like many others, was along the lines of “Holy $#!+, that can’t be true, but it’s amazing if it is.” And, to see that discovery largely hold up, and help me better understand how pitching and defense combine to prevent runs in baseball is worth a lot more than money to me.

****If the goal of this industry is not to advance it monetarily or its role in MLB, then why have it? What’s the point? It seems like a very time consuming hobby with little reward.****

A particularly ironic question given the time you spend answering the list! 

Great point!  I probably spent 2-3 hours writing all those answers.  Based on Mike’s line of questioning, I should have asked him for payment, or ignored his request.

and several of us do this stuff at work, which could endanger our paycheck if the boss comes into the cubicle at the wrong moment

Absolutely.

Eh, I figure it’s professional development right?  Spreadsheets, databases, etc.  those are useful skills