THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I wrote this on the blog:

The quote above from The Book refers to “a successful sacrifice bunt” wherein the batter advances the runner in exchange for an out.  That is NOT the same thing as ATTEMPTING a bunt, which is what drives the decision that the manager has to make.  Depending on the batter (his speed and bunting ability), to a small extent the runner, and to a large extent, the position of the infield (how much they are anticipating the bunt), the average result of a sacrifice ATTEMPT can be better or worse (or the same of course) than an out and a runner advance.  That “average” result (the weighted WE average of all the possible results - e.g., single, error, GDP, etc.) is what determines whether a bunt attempt is warranted or not.  Then there is the additional consideration of “game theory” (essentially preventing the defense from playing completely or predominately back or in because they always know what you are going to do or they have a very good idea as to what you are going to do).  For a complete discussion and analysis of the sac bunt, read the sac bunt chapter in The Book.