THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

A good question. Was Vicente Padilla so bad for the Rangers clubhouse, which has always been considered to have great chemistry even with him around, that it was worth turning his job over to Dustin Nippert who went on to post a 2-4 record and 5.29 ERA during a playoff chase while Padilla goes off and cooly goes 3-0 for the Dodgers with a ERA less than 3.00.

Might not have been the best move. But in Texas you’ve got to stand for something or you’ll fall for anything.

Bradley did alright in Texas because he loved Washington and Washington loved him back and let him sit out as many games as he wanted with mysterious injuries. He got along fine with the players who didn’t seem to think much of him ducking out of games.

One team taking a totally different approach with two headcase players.

Nice article, Sky!

I remember talking about Barry Bonds in the same spirit.  I had him, I think, at around a 1.5 or 2.0 WAR coming into 2008.  And I thought teams were crazy not to take a flyer on him, especially when he said he’d sign for minimum.

So, you can add that as another example that the threshhold level is right around a 1.5 WAR.

Going the other way (good clubhouse guy, with minor-league talent), it’s probably a -0.5 WAR that is the threshhold.

Would that huge drop in Bonds production be more from an age penalty, playing time, or (hard to figure) something else?

I’m reminded of Tango’s post on Cliff Floyd earlier this year:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/measuring_the_immeasurable/
So, is positive presence worth less than negative presence?
-j

That didn’t make sense.  Here’s what I mean:

Cliff Floyd was paid a $350k premium for being a great clubhouse guy, which is the value of less than a 10th of a win.  If he’s the best-case premium, that’s a lot less of an adjustment than the hit that teams are apparently willing to take to avoid the bad clubhouse guy based on Bradley/Bonds.
-j

Anon/4: I’d have to look, but it’s obviously a combination of both: age and playing time. 

I know that coming into 2009, I had him at a .373 wOBA on 250 PA. 

Hit: +2.5 wins above average per 162 G
Run: -0.5
Fld+Pos: -2.0
Repl: +2.0
Playing Time: 50%

TOTAL = .50 * (+2.5 -0.5 -2.0 +2.0) = 1 WAR

Working backwards, he should probably be around 1.5, but for whatever reason, I seem to remember 2 WAR.

You can basically compare Bonds to Junior.

Justin: I forgot I wrote that.  Very apropos of course.

Phil’s response:

http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2009/09/how-much-does-clubhouse-cancer-cost-his.html