THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Few people realize this but Mark Ellis is a member of the Hell’s Angels and buried deep within his contract is a line that guarantees them the security contract for Oakland’s new park.

If not that, then what?

All kidding aside, is his contract a commentary on the value of defense?

I think when you hit .233, these things happen.  I doubt he would have gotten much more.

Hudson is worth considerably more, right?  And seems like he will get something in the neighborhood of ~$10M a year.

Plus it’s just my biases, but I’m in favor of anything to piss the Players’ Association off.  He likes Oakland, wanted to stay, and didn’t feel like squeezing another $500k out of them or some other team.  Good for him.

Ok, I was mistaken about the value of the contract - for some reason when I heard about it yesterday I thought it was for about $7M a year.  But still, I don’t have much problem with it.

Orlando Hudson is a better hitter, and comparable fielder (and the same age).  What a fantastic comp you have found for us!

If Hudson signs a 4/28 deal, then you are right, and I am wrong.  But, if Hudson signs a 4/50 deal (as opposed to Ellis’ 3/18 deal, at best), do you still think that he didn’t need to squeeze “500K” from them?

Like I said, if he wanted to give the A’s a 10% discount, and one less year, then I’m all for the “not squeezing” perspective.  Basically, most of us would trade 10%, maybe 20%, of potential earnings for the current happiness we may find ourselves in.  But, signing for a 50% discount?  Please, a show of hands here for those who have been in the position to turn down a doubling of your salary.

Exactly what did Mark Ellis have to lose by at least checking out the free agent market?  The A’s would have waited, no question, especially if they could get him for 50 cents or even 80 cents on the dollar.

Tim Wakefield did a similar kind of silly move, when he allowed the Redsox to renew his contract indefinitely.  What exactly does he gain there by not having the ability to increase his annual salary?

Tim Wakefield, in return for not thinking about his contract status, allows the Redsox to renew his contract at the same salary, unless they choose not to, and then Wakefield has to think about his contract status! 

Mark Ellis, in return for not testing the free agent market, valuing the cost of his surgery, and staying where he’s happy, accepts 50 cents on the dollar.  He could have tested the free agent market, AND STAYED WITH THE A’S, at 80 cents on the dollar.

His move is indefensible, as long as Orlando Hudson will get the huge deal I expect him to.

Great post. I"m “new” around here, but having read post threads on sabermetric offseasons, I’d have to say that this shows, once again, why Beane is still the smartest GM in baseball. As someone who follows the Royals, I was hoping that Ellis would hit free agency and the Dayton Moore would miraculously obtain an understanding of how valuable Mark Ellis is and perhaps get him at a below market price while other teams fight over Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal… Hey, at least the Royals have Jose Guillen!

I attempted to make my own “salary chart” for this offseason. Am I way off, or did Ellis sign a deal appropriate for a 1.5-2 WAR player, rather than the 3.0 WAR player (conservative estimate?) he probably is, even at his age and after surgery?

Oops… should have said that the current deal is more appropriate for someone under 1.5 WAR. Not sure how the incentives all work.

He hit .233, is a good glove man but has never won a gold glove, and is coming off a surgery.  This is what the mainstream opinion will be based off of.  (Orlando Hudson, the “superior player” hit .300 last year and has won three gold gloves.)

Very few actually understand the value of defense - not Ellis’ agent, not the MLBPA, not whoever makes up the free agent ranking schemes.  Asymmetric information: the new market inefficiency?

Anyway, as an A’s fan, I’m just glad that I’ll be able to watch and cheer Ellis a little longer.  If there were off-the-field considerations, it would play in favor of this deal: Ellis is one of the longest-tenured A’s and he’s a fan-favorite.

In fact, if Ellis did take 1 MM and 1 year off the “market value deal,” that would make his “market value” 3/21.  Obviously he’s worth more than that in real terms, but I have a hard time believing that other baseball teams would have given him much more than that.

We’ll see when the slightly better Orlando Hudson signs, and the much worse Grudz.

Don’t forget, Luis Castillo signed for 4/25 two years ago, and Adam Kennedy signed for something like 3/10.

Ellis signed for basically a 1.5 WAR deal.  So, let’s figure out pessimistically what he is worth in this equation:
1.5 = playingTime * (Off + Def + Repl + Pos)

Repl is 2.5, Pos is 0.25.  Let’s figure playingTime as 70%.  Let’s make his Def as 1 win.  This implies Off of -2.7 wins, which makes him one of the worst hitters in baseball.

Or if you make his Defense just 0.5, then he’s -2.2 wins as a hitter, which still makes him a horrible hitter.

So, you’d have to think Mark Ellis took an enormous step back all-around to make this a fair deal.

And like I said: Ellis loses nothing, nothing at all, by filing for free agency. Nothing.  In return for losing nothing by filing, he allows the A’s to sign him for 50 cents on the dollar.  What kind of trade is that?

Let’s face it. Beane, Epstein, Shapiro, and maybe 1-2 others are probably the only GMs who bother to understand this stuff. However, I’m also guessing those 4 guys are smarter than 99% percent of agents, and probably 99.9% of players. How is that a fair fight?

I’m agreeing with you, but it’s likely Ellis and his agent just have no clue. On the other hand, 26 of the GMs out there probably don’t realize what a god deal this is for the As either.

Is it that egregious?  What is the market for a 32 year old 2B who played 117 games, hit .233-12-41 and had a .694 OPS?  Factor in that much of his value is in his defense, and you’ve got a guy who is destined to be underpaid by a lot.  I don’t know if that’s enough to make this a good deal or not, but I would have been surprised if he got more than 3/24 or the like.

Here’s another way to look at it.

Let’s say that Ellis is -0.5 as a hitter and +1 as a fielder.  Then offense + defense + repl + position = 3.25.  Call it 3 WAR.  That means that, in order for the A’s to lose out on this deal, Ellis would have to miss 50% of his team’s games over the life of the contract.  Goodness gracious.

I’m not even sure Hudson is the better player.  His defensive zone ratings have slipped the past two years, while Ellis is still Ellis.  Ellis had a down year with the bat, but has historically posted a league-average OPS+, slightly below Hudson recently, but Hudson’s played in the NL.  Injury-wise, both guys have surgeries to deal with, but I couldn’t tell you if Ellis’ shoulder injury or Hudson’s wrist injury is potentially more harmful.

I’m happy calling them both equals.  I certainly can’t believe the good luck, as a researcher, that we have twins like this, who have decided to take two different paths.  What a fantastic opportunity to see how the market will play out here.

The only incentive I can see for Ellis is that it gives the A’s more payroll flexibility to sign other players and (presumably) become a better team.

Would Ellis vs. Hudson 2009 be the first time in history the Gritty White Guy and the Smooth Non-White Guy flip contracts?

How does the inevitable overpayment for Rafael Furcal play into this?

Fans think Furcal is a fantastic fielder, playoffs notwithstanding.

Yes, fantastic observation.  Normally, as in almost always, the bonuses are awarded under the guise of the Gritty White Guy while the discounts are applied under the guise of the Lazy Black Guy.  To think Ellis gave a discount, while retaining the Gritty White Guy persona, may be unprecedented.

The one incentive for Ellis is that he’s done.  He has nothing (baseball-wise) to worry about and stress about before the start of the World Series.  That certainly has _some_ value, but I’ll happily admit it’s not much.

Maybe he’s like me - making decisions is a source of great stress. 

Plus you have to look at the law of diminishing returns as well.  He’s already a millionaire many times over.  Maybe that extra few million just doesn’t have much extra value for him, especially when he can make an early decision to play in a place where he wants to be.

And about my “squeeze and extra $500k” comment - I mistakenly thought Ellis was getting $7M a year, and I think Hudson will get $40M/4.  I consider them equals defensively, and think Hudson’s bat is worth about $2M more per year.

Since I was wrong about the Ellis contract, that comment doesn’t make sense.

Still though, to accept the Oakland offer is not that bad.  Like you and the commenters have said - GMs don’t understand the value of defense.  Yes, his agent probably doesn’t either, but if you were Ellis, would you want to sit through an entire offseason of your agent trying to explain to Jim Bowden how much your defense is worth?

You’ve also got to consider that most of the teams with GMs who probably do understand this are set at 2B (with the exception of Cleveland) or are not in a position to pay $9M a year for an average-hitting 2B (e.g. SD).

Put all that together, and I don’t think the contract is all that bad in terms of what he could have gotten, and the benefits to him of signing early.  Is it a great deal for the A’s?  Sure.
Or just take a guaranteed

Wow… First I get blog posting linked to by Rany Jazayerli, then another one by Joe Posnanski, and now this… I should probably kill myself and go out on top.

I don’t have a problem with Furcal or the fans. I don’t “see” things that well, so I have to rely on that stuff or stats. All the stats I’ve seen (UZR for earlier years, Justin’s RZR/OOZ to runs conversinos) have Furcal just above or just below average fielding wise for the past 3 years. That’s valuble at shortstop, of course, but Ellis’s (and, until this year, Hudson’s) defense seems to outstrip the positional adjustment. Moreover, while I haven’t played shortstop, I think that bending over might be part of the job, so the injury is, um, interesting, although I don’t know how to evaluate it.

I think Furcal’s a good hitter, too. I’m not a projections guy, but I don’t discount his hot start this year. Having said that, looking at his mohtly splits over the past few years, he almost always gets as hot as his way in April and May for a little while during each season. So he’s probably the same hitter he’s always been.

I’m not saying that 3/40 or 4/50 would be an overpayment for a healthy Furcal. But I can see him getting more than that, or getting just that and getting hurt again.

Regarding Ellis: he could have signed in October, or he could have signed in January.

Exactly what does Ellis gain in foregoing free agency?  And signing three months early!

!!

Teams go crazy in trying to “buy out” free agent years by overpaying for arb-eligible (or slave-eligible) players today.

In this case, it was MARK ELLIS HIMSELF who bought out the A’s!

!!!

Mark: “Listen, if you promise to pay me 50 cents on the dollar, then I promise to not check out my fair market value.”

Beane: “Uh, Mark.  *I* am the one who is supposed to offer you 50 cents on the dollar, and in return, I am supposed to pay you extra for your last year of arbitration.”

Mark: “Ok, good.”

Beane: “Mark.  You are no longer arb-eligible.  You are now a free agent.  You can do whatever you want.  And I will guarantee you 80 cents on the dollar.”

Mark: “No.  I want 50 cents on the dollar, right now.”

I don’t think this contract is an indcitment against the perception of defense around the league. I think Ellis is just not recognized as the best (or one of the couple best) defensive 2Bs in baseball. In fact, a lot of baseball fans have probably never heard of Ellis. He’s not an offensive superstar, he plays for a team that gets little media attention (and, outside of 2006, the team hasn’t sniffed the playoffs since he’s played a major role). The majority of the great defensive players are well-known. The ones that arent are usually 5th outfielder types or young players who haven’t been introduced to the country. Ellis is a 30+ year old who has flown under the mainstream radar for his entire career. That’s why he’s undervalued. If he had a few gold gloves to his name (like Hudson), he’d be worth a lot more on the open market.

What makes us think Mark Ellis knows what he’s worth?

Do you think he really considers himself getting 50 cents on the dollar?  Is it possible he valued himself at $1 million/year and 1 year more than that, and saw this contract as a small discount on his going rate?

The open market is the 30 GMs, not the baseball fans or national media.

I must believe that all 30 GMs have Mark Ellis valued as somewhere between an above average fielding 2B and the best fielding 2B in baseball.

The hardcore baseball fans have the best-fielding 2B ranked as follows:
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2008.html

Brandon Phillips
Mark Ellis

Cabrera
Hudson

Brian Roberts
Aaron Hill
Bonifacio
Iwamura
Pedroia
Polanco
Ramirez
Utley
Uribe

So, I even reject the idea that fans don’t know how good he is.  Maybe fans in NY or BAL don’t know, but Oakland fans know.  In any case, the fan is not the market.  The other 29 GMs are.

Other posts from around the web on the Mark Ellis signing:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/20/638859/requiem-for-mark-ellis

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/029822.php

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/as-chatter-elli.html

Do the fans rate Ellis as a guy who could play shortstop adequately?  Oakland seems to have a glut of 2B coming up and Crosby is no sure thing to stay healthy.

Anyone that rates as a 75 or above will easily rate as being someone who can play anywhere.

Ellis would likely still be above-average at short, but his main (only?) weakness is arm strength, making it an inefficient move.

What’s the market for 2B this offseason?  It doesn’t seem like anybody in the AL really needs one, except the Royals—who probably won’t be making many serious bids for free-agents—and maybe the Indians, although they have some younger internal options.  Over in the NL, Arizona may need to replace Hudson, the Mets obviously need one if they can dump Castillo, and the Dodgers should have an opening if Kent retires.  Padres too, although who knows if they will bid aggressively for anyone—probably in a similar boat as the Royals.

So it seems like Ellis would have had few options if he wanted to stay in the AL, and he would have been stuck waiting on the Mets, Dodgers, and Arizona to sort out their 2B situations if he was open to go to the NL.  All while hoping Beane didn’t lose patience and acquire someone else to play 2B.  In that context, I don’t think his deal is that bad.

What’s the market for 2B this offseason?  It doesn’t seem like anybody in the AL really needs one

It’s not really about NEEDING a 2B.  It’s about saying hey, Ellis is way better than anyone we have and only costs $5MM.  Should we do it?

Let’s say Carlos Lee is a free agent and your team doesn’t “need” a corner outfielder.  Would you still sign him for $5MM per year?  Heck yeah.  And Ellis and Lee aren’t that different in value.

Didn’t somebody around here say in the end the players always go for the money?

I think there’s a loyalty to Beane going on here. The A’s stood by Ellis when he hurt his shoulder and I think that was appreciated.

He’s a soft spoken guy who doesn’t usually hit for high average (15-20 HR power though). Also a lot of his defensive value is in his flawless play as opposed to athleticism. Not only does he not get Gold Gloves, but also never gets on the highlight reels either.

Adam Everett never gets any respect either…

I hope he received a no-trade clause because Beane’s MO is to now flip Ellis as soon as he gets a great deal for him.

A team is ONLY loyal to you, so long as you provide value to them.  If Mark Ellis starts becoming a pain in the butt, Beane will not be loyal to him.  Redsox fans fell in love with Pedro, but that love was conditional, which means it wasn’t love at all.  Clutch hitting is more real than loyalty.

http://www.filmsite.org/godf2B.html

See, all our people are businessmen. Their loyalty’s based on that. One thing I learned from Pop was to try to think as people around you think. And on that basis, anything’s possible.

I am disappointed that my post is being missed the point here.  Here’s another link:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/indexn?blogid=21

When you have nothing at all to lose whatsoever, why not dip your toe in the water to establish the temperature?

"I hope he received a no-trade clause because Beane’s MO is to now flip Ellis as soon as he gets a great deal for him.”

I’m sure Beane would, but if Ellis wasn’t going to get free agent interest because other GMs don’t appreciate his defense, then those same GMs are not going to offer much trade value for him.

I understand the point of saying why not test the market, but what is the maximum realistic contract for a guy like Ellis?  Is it more than 3/21 at best?

It seems to me that 2B are somewhat undervalued in the market, though looking at the top 2B, it seems that there may be a disproportionate # of them that haven’t reached FA.  One of the reasons I ask is that, as an Orioles fan, one of the big questions among O’s fans is whether to extend Brian Roberts (he has one year left before FA).  I think most feel that a 3/30 or 4/40 deal is the most they’d want to give to him, which, given his value, seems very low.

Have there been any terrible 2B signings recently?

Steve: max realistic is 3/21?  If Luis Castillo can get 4/25, then how can max realistic for Ellis be 3/21?

Max realistic for Ellis is whatever Hudson is going to sign for, plus 1MM per year for being the Gritty White Guy.

From post #29: “Adam Everett never gets any respect either… “

I think that’s a really important comparison, but perhaps not in the way it was intended.  Everett is a 31 yr old defensive whiz middle infield who has suffered through a couple injury plagued years.  According to the Fans - I think I’m remembering this correctly - his defensive performance fall off dramatically this year.

In terms of Ellis’ true value - and that’s distinct from Tango’s question about whether or not he should have let the market decide - I think the people who are shocked by what a great deal this is are skipping over Ellis’ very real and perhaps Everett-ian health concerns.

If his defense drops off next year at age 32 as quickly as Everett’s did this past year, then how much of a bargain will this deal really be?

Some folks have been quick to point out that we shouldn’t expect Ellis to really understand his true value.  That may be true, but I guarantee that he understands his health status a hell of a lot better than anybody posting here.  Ellis believing that he is not healthy enough to do better than this deal on the open market does not seem completely unreasonable to me.

Tango(32) - because you think you have nothing to gain.

My theory here is that Ellis thinks he’s worth around what he signed for.  Or maybe he thinks he took a slight hometown discount.  Or maybe the free agent process is aggravating, and since he doesn’t need money, ever, he’d rather just sign and not worry about it.  Or maybe he really really really likes Oakland and ARod money wouldn’t change his mind.  Whatever.

Some people walk into a car dealership and have a price in mind they want to pay, and if they negotiate to that price, they buy.  They don’t spend another three weeks trying to knock $300 off the price somewhere else.  That’s stressful and annoying.

Professional baseball players are not profit-maximizing, risk-neutral, expected-value-optimizing automatons.  Except maybe Bannister.

Tango/37:  You think it’s realistic that Ellis could have gotten more than Hudson?  It might be true that his actual value was more than that of Hudson, but Hudson is a better hitter who is perceived to be a better fielder.

I think if Castillo got 4/25, 3/21 for Ellis sounds about right, in terms of a prediction.  I don’t know, maybe that’s too pessimistic, but I see a lot of markers that add up to Ellis being way undervalued - plays 2B, most of his value in his defense, coming of an injury, hit .230 last year, not a young or well known guy, etc.

I will be interested to see what Hudson gets, though.

Steve, you said “maximum realistic”.  There’s simply no way that 3/21 can be considered maximum realistic.  What would 3/25 be then?  Unrealistic?  Maximum realistic is a bit over Hudson.  It is not 30% or 40% below Hudson as the *maximum* realistic.

As for his perceived fielding value, the fans perceive Ellis as even or better than Hudson.  The stats perceive that too.  And I would bet the GMs do a well.  The market is not BBWAA, nor their readers.

If your car breaks down, and there are 30 car dealerships within one mile of your house, and they all beg you to stay home while they send you a brochure of their cars and prices, are you going to say: “No thanks.  I have no idea how much cars go for these days, but I like Billy at Beansie’s Lot of Undervalued Toyotas That I Cast Off For Newer Models, and I will pay whatever he says I should pay.”

He’s going to say: “I’ve got an agent.  Send your brochures to him.  Wake me up when I have to sign.”

Because the gold gloves are awarded by a managers/cooaches vote, Ellis’s lack of hardware in this case may be indicative of his perceived fielding skill by the relevant population.

I hope this is a trend, then maybe ticket prices will be the next thing to go down.  Times are hard right now and I am not sad to be a 30 something baseball player “ONLY” making $7 million a year.  I guess he will have to cut back on the amount of times he drives his H2.

I have no particular opinion about this particular contract and what he could have got in “open bidding”.

I do however strongly object to the notion that the individual player should have some kind of “moral responsibilty” towards the MLBPA and the “player market” to set his priorities so that they maximize the dollar value of his contracts.

If some players prefer a stable social situation (staying in a certain city), the loyalty of (or to) their fanbase or beeing with a contender to hard cold cash I think that should be their prerogartive.

And while I (and likely precious few of the people reading this) would rarely turn down a potential doubling of our salary for such concerns you certanly need to factor in marginal utility into the equation.

If you are a person of modest financial needs and desirees the impact of making say $12M/year on personal hapiness are likely pretty much neglible compared to making $7M/year.

Chris, the question on the table is not: “Why did he sign for 50 or 60 cents on the dollar”.  Ellis can decide for himself how much of a hometeam discount he wants to give.  Marian Hossa for example turned down a 12 year, 90 million $ contract, for a 1 year 7 million $ contract.  Dominik Hasek refused his salary while injured.  These players do what they do for whatever noble or personal decision they so choose.  That’s fine.

The question on the table is: “What did he stand to lose, by waiting three months?”

***

Since they don’t release the 2nd and 3rd place votes, we don’t know where the coaches and managers see Ellis.

I would find it an incredulous position to think that fans are so enamoured with Ellis that the GMs don’t think he’s at least a well above-average fielding 2B.  I’d like to know of any player in his 20s in the last 20 years that is as highly regarded by the fans and the stats, but that the GMs think is not at least an above-average fielder.

Bjorn: “so that they maximize the dollar value of his contracts. “

I presume that my post 43 answered your position here.

Like I said, I NEVER said he should maximize his dollar value of his contracts.  My Hossa example is a case in point as the ultimate in a player foregoing a guaranteed 85 million$ today, at the risk of personal satisfaction, and possibly getting that 85 million$ next year.

What I said he MUST do is, if he has nothing at all to lose, then WAIT 3 months.  Let the market forces take hold, let it shape the market prices, and THEN make his decision.  He loses nothing, he’s aware of the market price for him, it helps establish the market prices for Hudson and Grudz and other players.

Now, Ellis on his own, in terms of market prices, will be negligible.  But, this kind of thinking doesn’t help his fellow players, and instead only helps the GM.  If Ellis has nothing at all to lose in waiting 3 months, then he should wait 3 months.

If he resigns at 50 cents on the dollar, that is perfectly fine.

Is anyone else not clear on what I’m trying to say?

The only rationale I can come up with is that Ellis believes he’s going to have a career ending injury in the next month or two and wants to cash in now. Fortunately that does not jive with Ellis’s MO as a person, or Billy Beane’s.

So instead I just jump for joy as an A’s fan and just accept things like this as they are.

My Mark Ellis poll:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/poll_how_many_wins_will_mark_ellis_contribute_in_2009/

I guess it’s also possible that Beane gave him a take it or leave it offer.  Oakland obviously has a limited amount of money and can move fast.  That offer may not be there in another couple months.

And like I and others have said, being signed before the World Series starts, and being able to go home and not hear a word about money all offseason has some value too.

It’s up to each individual to decide how much value that is.

I think it’s a combination of many things:
a) desire to stay in Oakland/willingness to give a hometown discount
b) fear that the Oakland offer would disappear
c) underestimation of his own value or other GMs’ perceptions of it
d) desire to sign quickly and without stress

Does all that add up to several million dollars a year?  Quite possibly.

Ellis has an offensive projection of around -3 per 150.  So does Hudson.

Ellis is a monster fielder.  Projected at about +15 per 150.  Hudson +5.

They are both very good base runners, about +2 per 150.

Both about the same age.

Ellis around 3.3 wins AR in the AL.  Hudson 1.8 wins in the NL.

Give Ellis another .25 wins for being in the AL and dock Hudson .25 for being in the NL.

Ellis much better by almost one win.

3 years/18?  The steal of the century. Half price discount basically.  Is it surprising that Beane gets a giant discount on a player whose value is in his defense (but is generally not regarded as a great defensive player) and who had a career low year in 2008 especially in the BA department?

The conversation from Beane to Ellis’s agent goes something like, “Hey, this guy just had shoulder surgery. We’re not even sure if he is going to be able to play at all, much less play well.  He hit .233 this year.  Come on!  How much is a .233 player worth?  He’s lucky to be getting anything at all, let alone 6 mil a year!  A .233 player getting 6 mil a year for 3 years?  I’ve got to be out of my mind!  Yeah, his defense is good, but come on, defense is defense.  If a guy can’t hit.... Plus after surgery, who knows if the the guy will even be able to throw a baseball.”

Walks out of room.  “Snicker, snicker.  There is definitely one born every minute.  Thank God he is not represented by Boras.”

Good post, Jon. 

He would be terrible at Deal or No Deal!

***

Mark Ellis current lifetime earnings is 7 million$.  Not sure how much stress he is supposed to have in his life, though his clutch numbers are pretty low.

His WAR since 2002 is roughly 20 wins.  A free agent from 2002 through 2008, producing 20 wins, would have cost 70 million$.

Typically, a player, prior to entering free agency, will earn about one-third of his free agent market value over his slave and arb-years.  So, a guy who did what MArk Ellis has done, pre free agency, would have earned 23 million$.  He in fact earned 7 million$.

Beane owes him 16 million$ in bonus money for past performance.  This is how good Mark Ellis has been: an incredibly good player.  And severely underpaid.  He was paid 10 cents on the dollar, when guys in pre free agency would get paid 33 cents on the dollar.

Spycake/27 - The White Sox need a 2B, and if the past is any indictation Williams will once again go hard after Orlando Hudson.

philly/36 - The difference between Everett and Ellis is that Everett’s injury (the first one) was, I think, a broken leg. Ellis has shoulder problems. The broken leg likely sapped Everett of a lot of his range, and who knows if he’ll ever get that back. Unless Ellis’s right arm gets replaced with Chuck Knoblauch’s, I don’t know if the shoulder will hurt him too much as long as he’s healthy enough to be on the field. His range shouldn’t be diminished any, though perhaps there’s a throw or three he can’t make during the course of a season. Not enough to make him a bad defender or anything.

Tango/43:

I think the question isn’t whether the GMs/managers perceive him as a good, bad or indifferent fielder, but how much value they attach to that. 

Hudson got 6.25M this year.  At 80% of his FA value (5+ player), that’s less than $8M a season for a guy considered to be a better hitter and fielder than Ellis.  Given that, I’ll stand by 3/21 being the max realistic contract Ellis would have received.  I don’t think something like 3/25 was impossible, just really unlikely.

I’ll admit I could be wrong.  Perhaps Hudson will sign for 4/48, and Ellis would have gotten way more than he did.

I asked some insiders about Ellis.  The consensus was well above average.  I should have asked about Hudson too.  Oh well.

Anyway, the only ones who don’t perceive his fielding value are non-A’s fans, and the non-A’s media.  Why should we think they are relevant in any way?

The GMs, the A’s fans, and UZR all see Ellis from well above average to the best in the business.  We really don’t need the perception of anyone else here.

I really do think that Hudson’s personality helps him out over Ellis. Heck, I live outside of Toronto, and moved up here about the time O-Dog became the starter. Always loved him, even though he never hit quite as well as the then-sabermetrically-clueless me thought he would. Great personality, great player. They even named the “O-Dog combo” after him (two terrible SkyDome hot dogs and fries, IIRC). Would love to see him go to the Royals, except that money is tied up with Fiery Team Leader and Run Producer Jose Guillen.

This might be a case where the nickname is going a long way. Sort of how it got Tony “Big Dog” Perez into the Hall of Fame over Darrell Evans.

The lesson: people love dogs. I think.

Discussion of Ellis and O-Dawg can be carried on here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/mark_ellis_v_orlando_hudson/