THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

For the most part, I figure that the less that’s on my mind when I’m out there — if I’m not thinking about, and worrying about, what to throw to guys — the better off I’m going to be.

It’s like the pitching version of the Yogi Berra quote: “You can’t hit and think at the same time.”

I agree. The recent interviews by Laurila have been excellent.

IMO the “battle of wits” between batter and pitcher is largely baseball mythology.

I saw Buehrle and Erik Bedard duel on Mother’s Day at Safeco.  I don’t care so much about the sabermetric implications of his pitching style, but I have to say that as a fan in the seats, baseball is simply more enjoyable when a pitcher just takes the ball from the catcher, gets a sign and throws.  You’re on the edge of your seat the whole time.  The game goes fast.  It’s easy to concentrate on the action.  It’s basically the opposite of a Yankee-Red Sox game on national TV.  And I think a national TV audience would enjoy it more, but I’m a known sans-culotte where FOX and ESPN’s choices of national games is concerned.

"Dont think meat. Just give em the gas.”

I’ve gotten to speak to Coop a few times, and there’s some genius behing his “aw shucks” appearance.

We’re in agreemment that pitchers should think off the mound, but not on it. On the mound it’s just “lock in” and execute.

Too many guys try to “get cute” and get away from what they do best. The only player they really confuse is themselves.

I don’t recall the exact quote or who said it (maybe Johnny Podres), “The wrong pitch at the wrong time thrown in the right spot is still a good pitch.”

I really like Don Cooper and feel he is tremendously under-rated. If there’s a Dave Duncan of the AL”, it’s him.

"Who’s this guy?”

“Its Steve Carlton!”

“Whats he got?”

“Whats he got? Only the best slider in baseball.”

“Shit I’ll stick him.”

My favorite part of the book. Sometimes it is better not know, and prevent yourself from getting psyched out.

It is also easier to randomize your pitch selection when you don’t think too much.  Of course if the catcher is the one doing the thinking, that might not work anyway.

Speaking of randomizing pitches, it never ceases to amaze me how many ex-players (current TV and radio commentators), including pitchers, do not understand the concept.

In the last 2 days, I’ve heard the following exchange from a TV commentator (you will hear this practically every day if you watch a lot of games):

He is going to see a steady diet of (insert your favorite pitch type) because he wither looked bad on a particular type of pitch or hit a home run on a particular type of pitch.

Today in the WAS/ARI game, Chris Young struck out on a curve ball way down and away in a critical spot and the next time he was at bat, he got a curve ball on the first pitch I think.  The ARI announcer (probably Darren Sutton) said, “He is going to get a steady diet of breaking pitches.”

The pitcher, of course, knows that you can rarely throw a player, especially an experienced player, the same pitch too often.  Sure enough 3 out of the next 4 pitches were fastballs and the only curve ball was low and Young deftly laid off of it.  In fact, if there is a certain pitch that everyone THINKS is going to be thrown, that might be the pitch you throw with the LEAST frequency…

That’s a little hyperbole at the end, right MGL? I mean, the quality of the pitch still comes into play. Most pitchers throw mostly fastballs because it’s their best pitch. Everybody knows that Wakefield’s throwing a knuckler, but he should still throw it most of the time. Now SOME of the time he should toss in that weaker fastball, sure, but not all that often. And if you’ve got something that’s so good that they can’t ever hit it even if they know when what and where it’s coming, then you’re golden. It’s just that that’s pretty rare with professional hitters.

Pitchers throw mostly fastballs for multiple reasons, two primary ones:

(1) It’s the easiest pitch to throw for a strike (or locate).
(2) Everything works off the fastball.

A major league change-up without following a fastball is just a “slow fastball”.

You can’t change speeds or use movement very well if you don’t establish the fastball and FB varieties.

The one thing I’ve always told guys is to not be afraid to throw consecutive changeups (just make sure the second is lower), and occassionaly throw a curve/slider after the change. If you always throw a FB after a change then all you’re really doing with your change is announcing that a FB is coming and most good teams will pick up on that.

But even the changeup specialist and guys whose out pitch is a breaking ball have to establish the FB in order to have their off pitch be effective. Sometimes young guys get away from that b/c they get caught up in the desire to “posterize” everyone with their “out pitch”. Many guys have “better” pitches than their FB, but those pitches have to be set up with FB speed or location.

That’s what makes ML starters so impressive, they really need (usually) 3 good pitches plus multiple fastball varieties. Those that don’t are relegate to single innings (relievers).

@8 I don’t buy that. The changeup is just a worse pitch, as you can tell because you’d never want it to be a primary pitch. A large percentage of its value (how much depends on the pitcher and his repertoire, but in most cases I think it’s the vast majority) stems from it *not* being a fastball - the surprise element. This explains why you can’t throw it too often. There are lots of guys whose “best pitch” is their changeup, but I think this is relative to other pitchers moreso than to their own stuff. There’s the old saying along the lines that the thing that makes the best changeup is a good fastball - specifically because it increases this surprise factor.
I do buy the reason that the fastball is easiest to locate though.

Isn’t it amazing how once people leave BPro, they get better?

@#9

It seems like you’re saying the same thing said, only in a different way, and after saying “I’m not buying that”.

The changeup’s effectiveness is that it looks like a fastball, only it’s ~10mph slower. You can’t throw a change with a FB.

I don’t really waste time trying to “rank” a pitcher’s pitches ... all that matters is how he uses them together.

The better your fastball, the more effective your changeup can be. You stated similar.

I can’t figure out if your disagreeing with me or not. *grin*

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Note: When I say a pitcher might have a “better” pitch than their fastball, I’m referring to pitch data aspects ... like “run values”, swing %, and things of that nature.

"In fact, if there is a certain pitch that everyone THINKS is going to be thrown, that might be the pitch you throw with the LEAST frequency…”

I meant “least frequency” in a particular situation, not overall, so no hyperbole there…