THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

And if anyone makes any reference to the outcome or result of a certain strategy in terms of evaluating or even mentioning it (as a mistake), you are going to be banned for life!

You have no idea how many people in BBTF, said something like, “You are an idiot for suggesting that Carpenter should not have bat in the 8th or pitch in the 9th,” because he got a hit and retired the side in the 9th.  Of course calling me an idiot on BBTF is nothing new…

I agree, I did not like that play.  I was also puzzled by HOW he slid.  His hands were behind him when he’s on the ground (his head was the closest thing to the bag).  Can someone tell me what happened to Kinsler on his way to the slide?

Here’s a related one: Andrus is almost certainly the worst hitter (against a RHP) in the Rangers lineup (except for the pitcher). And he’s hitting second.

On the other side, the Cardinals have their only LHB, Jay, hitting second against a lefty with a larger than average platoon split.

Is bunting with 2 strikes the worst percentage move in baseball?

Probably one of them.  I was dozing.  Did someone bunt with 2 strikes?

It didn’t take long for a bad IBB.  Walking Punto to pitch to Carp.

What makes that IBB even worse is that the OF can play shallow for Punto, who has no power.  Berkman, a slow (but smart) runner, is no guarantee to score on a single…

Yup. Carpenter bunted foul with two strikes, man at 1st, and no one out in the third.

I was curious about Jay batting second.  Andrus batted second all season long.  Surely not a good choice but a least it was not an example of a manager “doing something different” for a bad reason, which happens all the time, because they , I guess to show that they actually have a difficult job (in terms of lineups and in-game managing), which they don’t, in my opinion.  I think I can train a 12 year old to manager a baseball game.  Oh, wait, I forgot about the “double switch” in the NL.  Too tricky for a 12 year old…

Tango, in The Book, we show that it is generally correct for a pitcher to bunt with 2 strikes, assuming of course, that he is not a good hitting pitcher and is a decent bunter…

A good bunter probably should bunt with two strikes a couple of times a year to keep things honest, but that’s not Carpenter, and that’s based on nothing but instinct.

By contrast to the hit-and-run, which I think might never be a good percentage move. Jeez, I wish I could write a Book-like study on it!

I prefer run and hits to hit and runs.

And another dubious IBB to Albert.

That IBB infuriates me on every level.  I know that’s probably the wrong move in terms of RE, but losing an opportunity to see Pujols hit in the World Friggin Series makes me want to slap all of Major League Baseball for its rules.

And of course it works out for Texas.

Here we go.  The first bad IBB to Pujols.  We might need more paper for this thread!

McCoy there really is no such distinction anymore between a hit and run or run and hit (I’m not sure if there ever was, but I have heard that term before, although not lately).  There is no reason for the base runner not to be acting like it is a steal.

And if anyone says that, “Yeah, but the IBB worked”....

Maybe Tony is smarter than I give him credit for.  Sac bunt so they can (incorrectly) IBB Pujols! No chance of course…

Some of you guys are going to be surprised at actually how many mistakes a manager can make in a game or series, especially in the post-season when managers think they have to do “something.” I have been mentally noting these mistakes for 25 years. Maybe that is why I am so ornery…

What are the best situations to hit-and-run? Likely with a low-walk, low-power, high-contact hitter? Andrus matches the latter two and isn’t high-walk. We do need a saberist to quantify the magnitude of the hit-and-run effect, though…

I’m following on ESPN MLB Gamecast since my wife basically dominates the television, and I’m getting the Twitter feed of @espn_durrett gushing over the stratagem. Ugh.

Apparently, MGL in The Book said pitchers can bunt with 2 strikes.  I’ll have to re-read that.

"Some of you guys are going to be surprised at actually how many mistakes a manager can make in a game or series, especially in the post-season when managers think they have to do “something.” I have been mentally noting these mistakes for 25 years. Maybe that is why I am so ornery…”

Baseball isn’t blackjack though.  Sometimes something happens and really the mistake could have simply been human error.  Runner decides to go when the manager didn’t tell him to do it, hitter swinging away and popping up on an 3-0 count, SS plays out of position and catches an errant throw to nab the runner at the plate, so on and so on.  And sometimes we don’t have all the variables to really make the call one way or the other.  For instance back when Don Baylor was managing the Cubs they go to the 9th inning and it was a close game.  Everyone was screaming for Kyle Farnsworth to come in and Baylor never called him in.  I believe the Cubs went on to lose the game and again everyone was screaming for his head because he didn’t bring Kyle in.  Turns out Kyle threw a temper tantrum before the game kicked a fan and injured his foot.  He was unavailable to play that day and thus Baylor didn’t really make a mistake by not going to Farnsworth that day.  Finally there is just luck.  Sometimes you just have to roll the dice and go for broke.

If you always play the % and you are the inferior team then you are going to lose the game/series/season.  Is it better to lose 5-3 or 5-1 or win 6-5?  Playing the % and being the inferior team means you are going to need luck to come out ahead the majority of time.

PH Carp?

I’d like to say it’s a great move, but I’m going to wait and see the results!

LOL.  I suppose PH is the right move, but I am not sure.  Bringing in Ogando (who may be better than CJ, pound for pound) I think is right.

I am not sure why CJ (seemingly) pitched around Punto.  Not sure the point there.  Walk the weakest bat in the lineup to pitch to a strong pinch hitter?

Well, much as I hate Washington’s decisions, they are consistent with what he’s done all year. Don’t know if it’s better to be consistent and bad than inconsistent. As an aside, Daniels seems bright, and Washington still has the job, after considerable chances to get rid of him, so he must be doing SOMETHING right… right?

Speculation that this walk to Punto was an intentional unintentional, trying to force La Russa’s hand with the PH.

I should clarify that this speculation WW/22 isn’t by me, but from Eric Nadel, the local Dallas radio guy. And the stalling seems to bear this out. Can’t say I really like it, though.

I realize that pitchers have to pitch to all parts of the plate, at least some of the time, but when you throw 97 and you don’t mind hitting a batter, like with 2 outs, and you are trying to avoid one run, I think the primary spot should be up (and in) with the fastball and down and away (of course) with the breaking ball…

I am so tired of watching guys like Punto get pitched around and/or walked.  When a child breaks his toy you need to take it away before he cuts himself.

Someone on BBTF pointed out that Punto is .328/.423/.410 career against Texas.  Maybe that is playing into Wash’s thinking? (rolls eyes.)

@26/ And he’s gotten on base THRICE this game - so he’s hot, too! Just proves it was the right move…

"Someone on BBTF pointed out that Punto is .328/.423/.410 career against Texas.  Maybe that is playing into Wash’s thinking? (rolls eyes.)”

Of course that is possible or even likely.  When TLR, one of the most respected managers in the game, was asked why he walked (who was it?) to pitch to (who was it, that hit the homer?), he said, “It was a no-brainer because the first (who was it?) has killed us this season.”

Is Esteban German really the best option here? He does have better season and career numbers than Torrealba and Moreland, but he’s had 89 plate appearances in the last three years COMBINED. Plus, his career wOBA is only good, because he had a a red hot season at the plate in 2006 for the Royals. That season was fueled by an unsustainable BABIP, and he simply hasn’t had that many other plate appearances to bring his wOBA in line with his true talent level.

Probably trying to save those for possible later innings.  German is a terrible hitter.  Near replacement level…

Feldman is an example of a pitcher who was a terrible starter, but is probably a run, maybe more, better, as a reliever, which is not atypical of course…

MGL/#30

That makes sense, but I wonder if it wouldn’t be better to use Torrealba or Moreland in that spot with two men on. I know there were two outs, but you might not have a good spot to use either of those guys later. Managers have no idea what situations are going to arise in the later innings, so I would think that the best play would be to use a better hitter in that spot when there is a chance for him to make a bigger impact.

Fangraphs had the leverage index at 3.30 for that at-bat. I think I would take my chances with a better hitter there.

Also, David Schoenfield, who I think does a pretty good job on ESPN’s SweetSpot blog, just tweeted this:

“Washington hit German, hoping La Russa would bring in Dotel. He’d then use Moreland to hit for German. #backfired”

http://twitter.com/#!/dschoenfield/status/126849565591732227

If that’s true, then that is some pretty convoluted, tenuous reasoning.

Mr. Red, you are probably right (as Phil Jackson says)…

Taking out Freese in the top of the 8th when he is due up in the bottom of the 8th for Descalso.  UZR/Fans would lead you to believe that are actually about equal defenders.  And Freese is clearly a better hitter.

@33, maybe TLR’s genius is making opposing managers over-manage and shoot themselves in the foot.

I think you have to bring in a lefty to pitch to Berkman and Descalso, don’t you?

Anon, I have no problem deferring to the manager on who is the better defender, Freeze or Descalso, especially if UZR has them about even, with neither player having a large sample of defensive data…

MGL/#34

I’m assuming that the Phil Jackson phrase is the one from the Audi commercial? If the numbers don’t bear out what I’m saying, then I’m sure that I’m wrong. I don’t recall a section in The Book that detailed when to use pinch hitters. I honestly have no idea what is the better play based on anything concrete. Do you think the whole point is irrelevant, or do you think my reasoning is suspect/wrong?

Also, I’m not trying to be smart@$$. I just want to make sure that I’m interpreting your comment correctly, which can sometimes be difficult to do on the Internet.

Another blown call on National television in the most important baseball event of the year.  6 men in black uniforms are the only people in the country who don’t know they blew it.  Human element!

What a terrible call by the umpires.  I can’t expect them to see every little tick of the foot or body, but McCarver was right when he said that no one can fake a foul ball that quickly.  There is NOT reason for the umpire not to call that foul.  Even if he had his eyes closed, he would be 99.9% correct calling it a foul just based on Beltre’s reaction…

Yup, you gotta love that human element?  Selig must be smiling in his big, overstuffed chair!

Mr. Red, I am serious. You probably ARE right!

Speaking of manager’s mistakes,

How do you go about computing the probabilities of the below example to see if the right call is made by the manager.

Let us say it is the final inning and the home team is up trailing by 1 with the bases empty and two outs.  The manger has two choices; bring up a hitter who has a .280 wOBA once all factors are factored in (time of day, handiness, PH, so on and so on) and a hitter who has a .220 wOBA once everything is considered.  But player A is mostly a singles and walk hitter with little to no pop.  Player B has some pop and would hit 25+ homers over a full season.  So while player A is more likely to get to first base than player B player B is more likely to put the ball over the fence to tie the game.

So would a manager be incorrect to go with player B in that situation?

I’m thinking it might have nicked him on the way up.

Someone should have called it a HR, so they could get a replay on that.

How did none of the six umpires see that correctly? The first base, third base, or home plate ump should have seen that it was a foul. Even if one ump had missed it, I don’t see how the other two managed to miss. They were right on top of the play!

wOBA weights are roughly as follows:

0.7: BB, HB
0.9: 1B, ROE
1.3: 2B, 3B
2.0: HR

In your case, you are saying .280 and .220 using the above weights.

You are correct that for a particular game state, the above weights are going to change.  Maybe the BB goes down to 0.4, maybe the HR goes up to 2.8 or something.

You just have to apply the right weights for the particular game state.

McCoy, as you correctly surmise, wOBA is not the correct metric for determining whom to bat in that situation.  But the calculations are quite simple.  Take all the component (s,d,bb,hr,etc.) projections for each player and multiply the win expectancy (WE) for each of those events by the frequency of the event for each player.  So, if after a walk, the WE for the batting team is 10%, you multiply .1 times the frequency of a walk for that player, based on his projection (for walks).  Do that for both players, and whoever has the highest weighted WE is the one to bat! If it is close, we leave it to the manager who can use all those hundreds of things he knows that we don’t (like who had a fight with his wife, who slept on the wrong side of the bed, who ate Wheaties for breakfast, etc.). If it is not close, then it is unlikely that anything the manager knows or thinks he knows would change the numbers enough to change the decision…

Thanks, guys.

Now then how would one properly handle the next batter up?  Would you then simply multiply the odds of a single by player A by the odds of say a double by player C?  If so what would that number be multiplied with?  Because I would think that part of determining if batter A or batter B should bat should be based in part on how good or bad batter C is.

Right, or you can just use Tango’s method which is essentially the same thing, since in order to generate the new weights, you have to know how each event changes the WE.

There are very few things in baseball for which we can’t generate the optimal strategy on paper.  And simply breaking each one into 3 categories, one, do this, two, do that, and three, let the manager decide, based upon how close the decisions turn out to be, allows for the “baseball is played by people and not computers.”

The other answer I have is that even if the manager does know all kinds of things that we don’t know, it is impossible for a human being to process them when you are looking for a .03 win edge here or there.  I mean, let the manager tell us everything he knows about the situation and THEN we’ll tell him the right answer.

Of course, for every 1 thing he tells us that is legit that we didn’t know, there are going to be 10 things that he tells us that he thinks are relevant but we have proven to be nonsense!

So not only do we act as a recipient of his knowledge to use in our models, but we also have to act as a B.S filter…

Sorry,

I see that it would be multiplied by the new WE.  The question didn’t come out right.  I guess I’m asking beyond the probability of the two events happening would there be something else to multiply it with?  Should there be another penalty or factor that needs to be considered just the frequency of the two events?

Pujols has been IBB’d 4 times in the playoffs. All 4 times the inning has ended with Matt Holliday and no runs scored.

Regardless of the good/bad decision aspect to it, it will likely continue until Holliday makes them pay.

--------------------------------------

I’m not a fan of hit and runs in that situation. If you’re worried Elvis will hit into a DP, donn’t bat him 2nd.

I really don’t like the H&R with Yadi behind the plate, unless you’re hoping that the swing and miss will interfere with him enough to allow for the SB. I didn;t see the play bit is it possible that Andrus was swinging to block Yadi a tad, rather than just taking on a straight steal?

--------------------------------

As for Beltre, hitters do pull that “fouled off my foot” thing. That one, however looked like it did tip his shoe. Thank god for the infrared camera.

------------------------------

TLR has been using Descalso as a 3B defensive replacement all year. I’m not sure we should use UZR with its sample limitations to be overly critical of that move. It’s possible, but certainly not a high degree of certainty.

-----------------------------

IBB’ing Punto to bring Craig to the plate was outright goofy, IMO. You’re going to face Craig as a PH regardless (likely), so might as well face him leading off the inning rather than with 2-men on. Carpenter wasn’t pitching that great to fear him for the 7th.

"Carpenter wasn’t pitching that great to fear him for the 7th.”

I guess you have not read all the work I did in the other thread!  You still think that you can tell whether a pitcher is “pitching well” enough to continue.  Managers can’t do that.  You should be a manager!

Right, hitters occasionally do that to fool the umpire, but in this case there was no way that was acting.

“Pujols has been IBB’d 4 times in the playoffs. All 4 times the inning has ended with Matt Holliday and no runs scored.

Regardless of the good/bad decision aspect to it, it will likely continue until Holliday makes them pay.”

That is true.  That is one reason that managers make so many bad decision…

” If so what would that number be multiplied with?  Because I would think that part of determining if batter A or batter B should bat should be based in part on how good or bad batter C is.”

Yes, it does, but it is not going to be a huge (or even a large) factor.

If you want to (and a computer can of course), you can make custom WE tables or compute your wOBA weights to account for the next few batters and the pitchers, but it is probably not worth it.

That is why I always recommend the 3 categories (Tango invented them in his Bonds IBB charts): Do this, do that, or let manager decide.  The next batter and other things (pitcher, park, etc.) won’t change the do this and do that.  Manager can use them to make the decision for the “let manager decide” category.

I guess you have not read all the work I did in the other thread!  You still think that you can tell whether a pitcher is “pitching well” enough to continue.  Managers can’t do that.  You should be a manager!

Given the content of the last few days, I was trying to make a joke.

Geez, I said I confident that Carp would finish the shutout, and I now I think I can tell every time when a pitcher will continue pitching well or not? I’m certain I admitted that I could not. Let it go. *big grin*

Pretty much no matter how you slice it, walking Punto to get to Carpenter, so he has to come out of the game just makes the IBB worse, IMO.

I’m sorry, there’s just no way I’m spending all morning on the computer pumping out a “When to Walk Punto” post.

Since it’s mentioned here, what’s the difference between hit-and-run, run-and-hit and run on contact?

All morning? I’ll write it for you right now.

“When to Walk Nick Punto.”

Never.

In theory, the difference is that in the hit-and-run, the hitter HAS to try and make contact, unless maybe it’s going to be a wild pitch.  In the run-and-hit, the batter doesn’t have to swing, but he can if he likes the pitch.  This differs from a straight steal, I think, in that in a straight steal the batter is discouraged from swinging if the runner has a good jump.

So basically:

Straight-steal: Don’t swing unless it’s a meatball or runner got a poor jump.
Run-and-hit: Green light to swing, if you like.
Hit-and-run: You must swing.

As MGL notes though, there might not really be any practical difference anymore, if there ever was.

Personally, I don’t like any tactic that messes with the batter’s decision on whether to swing or not.  That’s difficult enough already…

You’d think Adrian Beltre, the man who asks the first base ump for help when the home plate ump calls a check swing on him, would have gotten the benefit of the doubt there.  It’s not like umps have never used a veteran’s reaction as a justification for a call before.

Thanks, Ryan.

I understand that run on contact is also used, where batter bats as normal, but runner is encouraged to run if batter makes contact, and not to wait and use his judgment, based on where ball is going.

There are 61 comments already for this thread after one game.  Maybe a new thread should be started for each game?

Run and Hit
--------------
- Runner treats it as a straight steal.

- Runner also needs to check the batter for contact in the air, if not he can easily be deked by the IF’s yelling “got it” or “up, up, up”, or my favorite acting like they’ve turned a double play and the runner is out, trying to get him to walk off the bag.

- Batter can swing if he wants to, if a pitch is outer half and the 2B is covering on the steal and he doesn;t swing AND the runner gets thrown out he’s probably going to hear from the manager on why his head is locked in his smelly under region.

- The runner is pretty much sliding into second no matter what.

- The other option is when you have a base stealer on 1B and a high contact guy at the plate, anbd the batter can recognize an outer half pitch with the 2B covering, and elect to swing and just knock it thorugh the wide open right side.

Hit and Run
---------------
- Runner takes less aggressive lead and/or jump

- runner also checks batter for contact in air and must pick up ball to see if it gets through IF (so he knows whether to round 2B or not).

- On a hit and run, the runner is not necessarily sliding into 2B, but looking to automatically take 3rd on anything the gets to the OF. If a runner on a H&R slides into 2B and the ball gets through the IF, the manager will wonder why he isn’t doing something more intelligent ... like training show dogs.

- The batter must swing at pretty much everything that doesn’t bounce ... including, perhaps especially, pitchouts. If a batter cna foul off a pitch out, he will indeed earn mad respect from his peers and other cool cliches, as well as, have many adult bevaregaes purchased and hoisted in his honor.

On a run and hit, the assumption by the manager is that if the batter misses, the runner still has a good chance at stealing the base.

On a hit and run, the assumption should be that the runner is probably dead meat at 2B if the batter siwngs and misses.

That’s been my experience anyway.

If on a hit and run call, the runner gets picked off 1B because he’s being too aggressive with the lead and/or jump his ass will be grass.

Geri/61: excellent point. I have changed the title of this thread to reflect Game 1.

When Game 2 is about to start, me or MGL will create a new thread.

How about we look at good decisions too?

For example, after getting 7 hits in 2 games against Philly, Theriot sits and hasn’t played much since.

Seriously, how many managers bench a guy that has had that many hits in a couple important games? Bneched him for defense, and that defense was a key in the elimination game (great tag on Utley, very good play charging a slow grounder later on)?

TLR continues to take out Freese for defensive replacement later in th egame, despite Freese’s hot bat.

---------------------------

mgl,

A bugaboo of mine is when a runner does not get a great jump just because the hit and run is on and he expects the ball to be put in play.

That could happen because the big no-no’s on a hit and runs is to [1] give it away with an aggressive lead/posture, and/or [2] get picked off.

#1 could easily result in a pitchout, and #2 is an automatic out when you’re not even trying to to steal the base. H&R, you’re trying to get he runner at 1B a jump to either stay out of the DP or be able to take an extra base. You’re not trying to “steal second”.

If Washington called a H&R in that situation, it was dumb. I still think that Andrus could have just been swinging to try and interfere with Yadi a bit. It happens, and with some guys you can get griped at if you don’t do it.

He should be doing the exact same thing he does when he attempts a steal. [.quote]

Not really. If you do exactly what you do on a straight deal, you’re trying to get as big of a jump as possible, and you’re not checking the batter for contact. You’re trying to get to 2B as quick as possible, and you’re sliding/diving. You don’t slide or dive on a H&R.

He should assume the batter is not going to make contact…

Then don’t H & R. Just straight steal. The assumption should be that if the batter swings and misses, the runner ids dead meat. That’s why I don;t particularly like the Hit & Run. Just steal the damn bag, or don’t.

I like the H&R for when there’s 2-outs with a guy on 1B, your 8th hitter up (pitcher on deck) and you’re looking to possibly score on a single by getting the runner in motion. It’s rare.

I would also consider a hit and run in a situation where a GIDP would be absolute murder.

Even for Ron Washington, who’s a little bazaar as a manager, a hit and run in that situation is pretty damn wacky. Is there a decent chance that Andrus was just swinging on his own to keep Molina back for a split second longer, or try to block any type of view Molina might have?

Even for Ron Washington, who’s a little bazaar as a manager, a hit and run in that situation is pretty damn wacky.

Not really. Washington does this a LOT in just this situation. IIRC, we’ve hat another one of these situations where Andrus didn’t make contact and Kinsler was thrown out and a couple of times where a guys been doubled off first on a caught hit and run just in these playoffs. I think one of those was Kinsler/Andrus as well…

FYI…

A bazaar is a merchandising area, marketplace, or a street of shops where goods and services are exchanged or sold.

Bizarre is a word to describe when something strange or unusual has happened.

Really great thread. Obviously everyone nailed all of the plays I would’ve posted, and more. Would be cool to round them all up and quantify them at the end of the series. Can’t wait for tonight’s thread - I’m sure Wash and TLR won’t let us down!

"How about we look at good decisions too?”

You can mention whatever you want of course.  Whether a decision is called good or bad depends on your base line, like replacement or average when valuing a hitter (or pitcher).

If you compare the Theriot or Freese thing to the average manager, then yes, it could be characterized as a “good” play.

I prefer to compare everything to the optimal play.  That’s just the way I like to do it. So when I say something is a “bad” play, it might be just what almost all managers do, which would technically make it an “average” play, yet still “bad” as compared to the optimal one.

Circle, I don’t think everything is as clear cut as you make it with respect to the H&R, R&H, etc., although we all appreciate the explanations. You obviously know a lot about the game and that is valuable to this or any site.

Your point about not giving away the H&R with a large lead is well taken, but I don’t think the getting picked off is an issue.  Runners rarely get picked off if your name is not Nyger Morgan, plus I was always taught to take as large a lead as possible unless everyone knows that you are not stealing, as in a blowout or you are down by several runs late in the game. 

If you take the aggressive lead when stealing, then you certainly encourage the defense to pitch out.  So your argument doesn’t hold water.  And, as I said, you should always get a big jump whether it is a hit and run or run and hit, because the batter will swing and miss or mess up the sign enough times that you have to be prepared to try and be safe at second.

As far as “peeking” to see if the batter made contact and what kind of contact, do you watch any games, Circle? Almost all runners these days “peek” on the straight steal.  You don’t have to change that on a hit and run or run and hit!

And as far as scoring on a single from first, you said that was rare, but what you meant was that it was RARE!

Circle, I don’t think everything is as clear cut as you make it with respect to the H&R, R&H, etc.,

I don;t make anything black and white, it’s ALL gray. I just summarized instead of writing a chapter on everything I know, have heard, or have read in regards to H&R, R&H situations. As a professional in my field, my nickname could be “it depends”.

To be perfectly honest, I think some coaches like the H&R particularly because if it works they look like a genius, and if it doesn’t then they yell at the batter. I can talk all day about what I think of those coaches.

Your point about not giving away the H&R with a large lead is well taken, but I don’t think the getting picked off is an issue.

There are only a few things the runner can do wrong on a H&R play. Get picked off, give it away, or not check for a batted ball in the air. I suppose one could say “not running” is another thing the runner could reasonably do wrong, as is “missing the sign”, but we’re trying to be abbreviated here.

Too many runners have the tendency of going on first move or trying to get a great jump, even though the point of H&R is NOT to steal the base but for the batter to HIT the ball on the ground toward the vacated position of the player covering 2nd base for the “stolen base attempt”.

I also don;t like it because it forces the batter to do something specific with the pitch, regardless of location and type.

I don;t understand why folks are treating the Hit and Run as if it’s a play where the batter just happens to hit the ball while the runner is stealing. The batter is literally trying to hit the ball “behind” the running runner.

IMO, they’d be bette off just trying to steal second and if the batter gets a good pitch to hit, crush it.

The big lead really doesn;t do anything to contribute to the success of the hit and run because the success relies on what the batter does.

Run and hit really isn;t a “called play” is it? basically the runner can steal if they want or steal if the coach says and then the batter swings if they want to.

plus I was always taught to take as large a lead as possible

I would say “why”? I’m not following where it really increases the success of anything a non-stealing runner is going to do, while increasing the odds that a “bad out” could happen. The higher the level one goes, the quicker the pitcher’s feet are ... and some of these guys are lightning.

ML non-stealing runners don’t get big leads and don’t take aggressive secondaries. Pitchers and catchers are just too qiuick with moves and snap throws.

ML non-stealers against LHPs often are leaning back toward 1B or actually take a step back toward the bag during the delivery.

Watch it, it’s funny. Will probably happen tonight with two lefties on the mound.

I think SOME guys should take as large of a lead as possible, and I think other guys should just realize they are Rickey, and there looking good big lead is a risk the team doesn’t need. I saw that as a runner that would do that very thing (big lead, fingers twitching, one arm down, etc ... but I wasn’t going anywhere).

As far as “peeking” to see if the batter made contact and what kind of contact, do you watch any games, Circle?

This is going to sound dumb, but with us we use “take a peak” and “get a look” to mean different things.

When you steal you peak to see if the catcher is throwing, and that’s it. You don’t really follow the ball after that because when you’re head is up or turned, it causes most players to run slower. Really, you’re just checking to see if there’s going to be a play. You don’t want to slide if the catcher’s not making a play. Most players slide anyway. Why would they slide if they were “looking” and saw that the catcher dropped the ball? The answer is because they just took a quick peak to see if the catcher was initiating a throwing motion.

When you H&R, you’re taking a “look” because you need to see multiple thngs if there’s [1] contact, [2] air, line or ground, [3] which direction, and [4] you’re deciding to go 3, stay 2, or back 1.

Does that make sense?

And as far as scoring on a single from first, you said that was rare, but what you meant was that it was RARE!

Yep, it pretty much has to be something in the gap where both OF’s have to go back a little bit to cut the ball off and the only thing holding the runner at 1st is the cutoff in the IF. rare indeed.

I wouldn’t hit and run. TheI think the risk is far greater than the reward. It is works as designed you get runners at 1st and 3rd. If it’s neutral you get 1-out runner at 2nd. If it fails, you might have 2-outs no one on. If the runner gets thrown out on a swing and miss and the next guy hits or walks, then it looks even worse.

@ MGL #28
The brilliant TLR argument you are referring to is why they had Garcia IBB Carlos Ruiz to pitch to a pinch hitter, Ben Francisco in the 7th inning of a 0-0 game (game 3).
Ruiz, of course, is a #8 hitter for a reason and hit .059 in the series for a reason, though to be fair, Ruiz was hitting .500 in the game at the time of the walk.

Ruiz bats 8th because he’s the catcher, it seems, but in fact he bats 6th, 7th, & 8th throughout the season. For whatever reason, his performance in the 6th & 7th slots was better this year than it was in 8th (small samples of course).

He hit .059 in the series because he was slumping. His wOBA this year was .332 (wRC+ 108) (.283/.371/.383); last year .366 (wRC+ 126) (.302/.400/.447).

Not that these are good reasons to IBB him there, but let’s not exaggerate his awfulness.

I don’t think you have to exaggerate his awfulness to make the point that it was a terrible IBB.  For any IBB other than the bottom of the 9th or later when the batter/runner does not matter, the batter being walked has to be considerably better than the next batter (and the batters after that).  If they are at all close, there should be no walk.  No need to quibble about Ruiz and Francisco.  They are close, even with the PH penalty (and again, always keep in mind that we are not sure how much of the PH penalty, like the DH penalty, is due to an injured or tired player).

I ran some different lineups for Game 1.  Using the original lineup, TEX scores 3.277 rpg and SLN 3.098 and SLN wins .5116 of the time.

Using this lineup for SLN:

Furcal
Freese
Holliday (hurt)
Pujols
Molina
Berkman
Jay
Punto

SLN scores 3.077 and they win .5054% of the time.

If we swap Freeze and Holliday, we get SLN at 3.110 rpg and a .5110 wp.

If we swap Holliday and Pujols (OMG, batting Pujols 2nd - heresy!), we get:

SLN scores 3.085 and wins .5071.

Anyway, looks like TLR’s lineup is a pretty good one.

For Texas, if we completely re-arrange the lineup and use this:

Kinsler
Hamilton
Cruz
Napoli
Young
Beltre
Murphy
Andrus

We get TEX scoring 3.349 and TEX winning .5002.  That is a .072 rpg difference, which is 12 runs a year, or more than a win.  That is pretty significant.  It lowered TEX wp for that game by 1.18%.

His biggest problem is batting the worst hitter (versus a RHP, according to my projections), Andrus, second, and his second best hitter, Napoli, 7th.

Now, you can sort of understand (from a manager’s perspective) why he would bat Andrus second, fast, scrappy, good with the bat (I guess), but why does he bat Napoli near the bottom?  Because he is a catcher?  What does that have to do with anything?

I’ll put today’s lineup analysis in the other thread…

I Started a game 2 thread.

MGL: did you put in any injury adjustment for Hamilton?

No.  I put a leg injury adjustment for Beltre.  What is wrong with Hamilton?

OK, I guess a groin injury…

I ran some different lineups for Game 1.  Using the original lineup, TEX scores 3.277 rpg and SLN 3.098 and SLN wins .5116 of the time.

Can someone comment on why the team that’s scoring over 5% more is losing over 51% of the time?

Home team only bats for 8.5 innings or so on the average. Plus they sometimes leave runners on base in a walk off.  If you use runs per 27 outs for both teams rather than “per game” then the team that scores the most wins the most (more or less)…

Feldman is an example of a pitcher who was a terrible starter, but is probably a run, maybe more, better, as a reliever, which is not atypical of course…

What are you basing this on? He’s relieved in 9 games this year, 7 last year (not including postseason). He was dreadful as a starter in ‘10, though reportedly was injured for at least some of that. And pretty decent as a starter in ‘09. Bad as a starter in ‘08 and really dreadful as a reliever in ‘07. So a lot of mixed results, not a great sample size of being good as a reliever. Not that I doubt that he’s significantly better as a reliever, but these sweeping generalizations appear to have materialized out of more or less thin air.

"I don’t think you have to exaggerate his awfulness to make the point that it was a terrible IBB.”

Yes, I completely agree. I merely wanted to counter the suggestion that Ruiz is this terrible hitter. My defending his hitting was not at all meant to justify the IBB. I thought it was a dumb play, personally.

Not thin air.  Nothing I say is out of thin air.  You can disagree of course.  But everything I say is based on 25 years of sabermetric research, mine and others’.

I have Feldman projected as a 4.32 starter (average starter is around 4.08), which is actually not that bad. I take back what I said about him being “terrible”, although I do think he is worse than that as a starter based on what I have seen of him (but I don’t intend anyone to take that seriously) and ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer, and Pecota have him as around a 4.62 which is very poor. So the concensus is probably that he is a mediocre starter at best.

As a reliever, we usually just subtract around 1 run per 9, although I subtract .82 (from the research I have done).  And my projection is based on his starts and relief appearances, with each one adjusted.

So that is my “thin air...”

Yeah, Ruiz is not a bad hitter, especially for a catcher.  He is almost league average according to my projections which is like 10 runs better than average for a catcher.

I have Francisco around the same. The pinch hit penalty is not enough to justify an IBB I don’t think…

@MGL/81: Fair enough. Of course, all the managers will say that their decisions aren’t based on nothing either, but their (often longer) experiencing of playing and coaching in the bigs. So I wanted to see your evidence (especially given that it clashed with my personal contention that he rates as a ‘terrible’ starter), and while I’m not at all surprised that it’s there, I wanted to see it. It’s not so much that it WAS out of thin air as that it SEEMED like it.

Sure, NP.  Glad I was called out on an assertion without evidence!

As far as a pitcher being 1 run or so better as a reliever, I imagine that is highly variable among pitchers.  I defer to the teams on that one.  Just like we have to defer to a team when a fielder changes positions and not just use the generic adjustments from one position to another…