THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Valentine math:

“Part of the home field advantage is that the home team gets two chances to score for every one that the road team gets.” (I paraphrased a little.)

I have to mute the tv when Valentine is announcing. He throws around way to many “this guy is great” etc etc.

The gist of Bobby V’s point (as I understood it) was that you don’t walk Rollins and you make him hit the baseball.

That wasn’t exactly what he was saying (and maybe I’m giving him too much credit).  But listening to him whine about throwing Rollins a fastball, I got the sense that what he was really trying to say was that you throw Rollins a strike and don’t walk him.  To me, if that was what he was really attempting to say, it’s a much more defensible point.

Every chance I get, I go mute on the gasbags.  I can’t stand the way they think, the way they analyze, and the way they come to conclusions.  It’s all so capricious.

I like hearing from pitchers, like Orel Hershiser, when he talks about pitching.

Otherwise, to me the purpose of these guys is to give me some smooth sounds, not to make me think.

It was also funny how Bobby Valentine insinuated that Jimmy Rollins and Cliff Lee were both lazy on some tough plays, claimed Terry Collins didn’t last in Japan because it’s a “little man’s culture” and called Chin-Lung Hu a Chinaman. Next week Phils play the Braves—I suppose his quest to start a world-wide race war will continue with Native American slurs.

Miller and Morgan stunk...So glad their gone!

They were almost as bad as Sterling and Waldman.

yeah, for me the low point was Hershisher joking about Hu’s name ("Hu’s on first, what’s on second” etc). Wonder if Valentine found that funny.

I’m pretty sure Miller and Morgan would not have gone there.

I don’t know Valentine as an announcer, but I get to listen to Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler all the time in Toronto and they are both old-time stats people.  I get so disgusted with them I completely tune out what they are saying and just listen for crowd noise to tell me when somethings happening.

Ken: consider yourself lucky that you’ve never heard Valentine.  I’m not sure if I should recommend you listen to him, so you know what we are talking about.  Or, avoid him at all costs, and not waste your time.

For me, Valentine can be summed up in one example from last night. Granted I’m a Phillies fan so I know this, but it ain’t exactly rocket science. Phillies fans, for both Raul Ibanez and Carlos Ruiz (Chooch is his nickname) do the “ooooooooooo” sound when they bat. Like Rauuuuuuuuuuuuuuul or Chooooooooooch.

Ibanez comes up last night and Valentine goes “Jeez, they’re already booing him, before he even steps up.” Now, granted, Ibanez kind of stinks right now, but the fans were clearly doing the Rauuuuuuuuuul and he just wouldn’t budge, even when Hershiser tried to eloquently suggest he might be wrong.

Hunter, that is not at all what V said or meant.  He specifically said that if he were in the dugout, he would have made sure that Rollins was thrown a fastball.  Obviously the reason is that he thinks you don’t want to walk him.  That is 100% wrong.  The correct thing is to be unpredictable.  If you walk him, you walk him.  By throwing him a curve, you are not trying to walk him.  That is simply one pitch of many you might throw him.  You are trying to be unpredictable.  You might throw 20% change up, 40% fastball (to a corner), and 40% curve.  Bobby wants 100% fastball.  Bobby is 100% wrong. You pitch Rollins carefully (including throwing pitcher’s count pitches in hitter’s counts) no matter who is on deck, simply because the tying run is on second with 2 outs and giving up a hit is a disaster.  If you end up walking him, you pitch Howard (or anyone - even a poor hitter) very carefully, for the same reason.

Valentine is an idiot, and not just for that reason…

My first impression on these guys was on the first Sunday night game (LA and SFG?).

IIRC, Kemp steals on Posey, who throws it in the dirt. The following two comments were made:

[1] Kemp went on “first move”. It was a right-handed pitcher, stealing on the “first move” is the only way to steal. Left heel up = steal.

[2] The replay clearly showed that a good throw would have had Kemp easy. Actually, had the throw still bounced, but been online, Kemp would have been out.

I expect guys to at least correctly explain the action. Otherwise, what’s the point.

Orel is very good when talking about managing effort, changing speeds on the same pitch, some mechanical things, and approach.

Bobby Valentine flat out sucks, and I’ve been on that train since day one.

I wouldn’t throw any hitter Jason Insringhausen’s fastball. Cutter or curve. Izzy’s fastball is, by far, his worst pitch.

MGL/Tango:
I don’t see how a manager instructing a pitcher to throw a FB in a very specific situation is going to be predictable from the standpoint of the hitter.

I don’t know what V’s exact words were, but if he said that a fastball must always be thrown in any kind of tight spot with Howard on deck, then that is dumb. But is it possible that the unique circumstances of that moment that led to his preference for “fastball only” are so specific as to be useless for prediction purposes?
Does that make sense?

I have a separate thread for the byline issue, and will move posts there:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sitekeeping/

FWIW the format seems OK to me.  The post says “by mgl”.  Sharing a blog has its pros and cons, but I’m interested in both guys’ stuff, so I’m happy it’s one blog.

I didn’t watch, but if Bobby thinks a fastball was the right pitch and feels strongly about it, that’s his professional opinion.  Suggesting that it’s the only answer is weird, but that kind of hyperbole is pretty typical of announcers.

Tango et al. -

I will very much endorse muting the Sunday Night game and tuning to ESPN Radio (if it’s available in your area) for the broadcast stylings of Boog Sciambi.

Sciambi’s a smart guy, measured, has an excellent voice. His partner Chris Singleton is a bit rough sometimes, but not unduly so.

Sorry, should’ve definitely addressed that to MGL, as well.

bowie, his clear implication is that Howard is such a threat that you should not throw any pitch in that situation which does not have the maximum likelihood of being a strike.  And that is clearly wrong.  In fact, it is just the opposite, although how much of a pitcher’s pitch you throw in that situation depends in part on the on-deck hitter.  My point is that this is managing 101 and the fact that Valentine doesn’t know it says a lot about his managerial acumen. I suppose that is one of the reasons why he is in the booth and not on the field…

yes, I met Sciambi and he is a great guy who actually understands and is interesting in learning more about sabermetrics.  I suppose that as a mainstream broadcaster you are handcuffed as far as how “sabermetric” you can be on air, but that doesn’t mean that you have to continually spout gibberish and B.S. like most broadcasters.

OK, here’s my two-cents worth:  I don’t need any of these guys to tell me what’s happening during a game of baseball.  I feel I’m quite capable of watching for myself and deciding whether I think what’s happened makes sense to me.  Therefore (with one notable exception:  Don Orsino and Jerry Remy), I mute all the games I watch (and that’s from 3-6/day!) It always surprises me when people complain about the lousy announcers because with rare exceptions, they’re all lousy, so MUTE ‘em!