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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, April 24, 2009

Linear Weights, by pitch location

By Tangotiger, 09:47 AM

Max now is writing for Hardball Times, and he’s got an easy-to-understand article, with lots of great graphs.  Here’s the one for the slider:

What do we see here?  Never, ever throw a slider down the middle.  It is as bad as throwing a pitch way off the plate. 

Now, here’s the one for the curve ball:

Never ever through a curve ball inside on a batter.  From the middle of the plate to way off outside of the plate, the curve is very effective.  Throw it inside over the plate for a strike, or inside for a ball, and it has the same bad impact.

This is fantastic stuff!

Remember, Linear Weights is like Donuts (there’s nothing they can’t do).  When trying to come up with this types of heat charts, try to think in terms of Linear Weights.


#1    APV      (see all posts) 2009/04/24 (Fri) @ 10:16

Here is what I’d be interested in as a next step.  Who are those pitchers who do have success doing what you aren’t supposed to and how do they do so?  Can a pitcher increase the run value of a certain pitch/location by effectively sequencing their pitches or by setting up a particular pitch?


#2    Max      (see all posts) 2009/04/25 (Sat) @ 03:49

APV, I wrote a note on the blackboard in my room (my to do list).
I think it’s an interesting step. The first of your questions shouldn’t be too hard to answer.


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