from Amazon
Monday, June 05, 2006
Leverage Index
By Tangotiger, 07:36 AM
Discussing the latest research published on Leverage Index and crucial situations.
Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 of Leverage Index discuss the latest research. More discussion can also be found in The Book, as well as on my site. And, the complete Leverage Index Chart is also available.
Note a slight typo in the Part 2 article. The second equation should have the “sum” apply to the three terms, not the two. Erase the first three “-”, and that equation will make more sense.
Mike Emeigh takes his stab at using LI:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/fun_with_leverage_is_perception_reality/
In short, he weights the performance numbers by the LI of he situation. So, if the LI is a 10.9, and he hits a HR, he gets 10.9 HR in 10.9 PA.
He also notes that Tejada in his sample (2003-2006) was a top choker, which is interesting since I published a few years ago that Tejada, 1999-2002, was a top clutch hitter!
My (current) preferred method is to compare the sum of his WPA to his pa-by-pa sum of WPA/LI. Looking at Tejada:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=941&position=SS
We see that he was fantastic in the clutch in 2002, and horrible in 2005/06, which seems to support both of our studies.
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It’s also not clear how Mike handled IBB.