THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

It seems like power and OBP are more correlated these days than they were in the 1980’s.  Maybe this is just anecdotal and my selective memory is at fault.  In 1982 the Cards got OBP from Lonnie Smith and power from George Hendrick.  The A’s got OBP from Rickey and power from Tony Armas.  The Expos, OBP from Raines and power from Dawson.

The Cards get both from Albert Pujols.  The Braves likewise with Jones, and the Twins with the Joe Mauer power hour.  Looking at the 3-year leaderboards of OBP from Fangraphs, the top 17 are all middle of the order hitters.  Hanley Ramirez was leading off, but he also has power, and moved to the #3 spot.  Down at 18-19 you finally get to Jeter and Figgins, classic leadoff hitters.

I disagree with John’s analysis here.  It seems to me the data actually show James’ prediction of better use of the leadoff slot largely to have been correct.  If you look at OBP from the leadoff slot (not just those with over 400 PA hitting leadoff), they had a .347 OBP last year vs. league average of .333.  That seems about right to me.  If you’re basically picking the player on your team with the highest OBP but who doesn’t hit for power, you will end up with someone a bit above average on OBP.  Even looking at 2003, the apparent recent low point on John’s chart, leadoff hitters overall had a league-average OBP which isn’t that bad. Even with a smart allocation of talent, there will probably be occasional seasons in which leadoff guys are only average.  If you look at the last table in John’s article, there are only a handful of players hitting leadoff today because of their speed despite a poor OBP—that’s huge progress from the 1960s/70s. 

If there’s a slot that is still misused by managers, it’s the #2 spot much more than leadoff.  Teams still regularly bat weak hitters second, even though it’s where your best hitter should be (according to The Book analysis).  #2 hitters are actually weaker than #6 hitters on average, which is clearly a mistake.

IMO this just demonstrates how exceptional Rickey and Rock were. How hard is it to draw a walk when the pitcher doesn’t want to walk you? Many walks are of the semi-intentional variety, which is why power hitters walk so often. The pitcher doesn’t want to give them anything good to hit and is willing to issue a walk instead. But with a top of the order hitter your headaches are just beginning if you walk a man with the meat of the order coming up.

Bill James also made an error in the original essay - Appling wasn’t a leadoff hitter, he usually batted 5th or 6th. Leadoff hitters who could draw lots of walks were always very rare. The type that James was describing was uncommon, and usually not used in a leadoff role. The players who drew the most walks tended to be the best hitters, and they batted in the middle of the lineup.

How much does that break around 1995 coincide with the primes of a lot of high OBP/high SLG guys who hit in the middle of the order (Bonds, Thomas, Martinez) and the comparative decline of Henderson and Raines without them being replaced by anyone comparable in the leadoff spot?

#9/ you’re right!  I can’t believe James (and me) wrote at length about Appling being a leadoff hitter.  I never thought to fact check my hero, but it appears I should have.

Do you think Aparacio led off?

Re: Aparicio.  Yes, in 1278 games he led off, with an OBP in that spot of .305.