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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, May 27, 2011

Keeping your batting order static

By Tangotiger, 09:58 AM

Players, we are told, love to know their exact role.  They want to know the one position on the field they’ll play, they want to know the one inning they are brought out of the pen, they want to know how many pitches they are allowed to throw, and they want to know the one lineup slot they’ll occupy.

So, if you have Drew Stubbs leading off, and Joey Votto always batting third, and you have Jay Bruce always batting fifth, then when the cleanup slot opens up for a day, it’s easier to simply slot someone else there.  The Reds for example started the season with Scott Rolen there.  Rolen of course is not the healthiest of players, and so, we’d expect that slot to open up.  And when it did, Jonny Gomes filled in.

But then, Dusty Baker decided he needed to have a new static lineup, given that Rolen was out.  So, he puts Brandon Phillips as his cleanup hitter, moving Jay Bruce to second, and then Gomes + whoever rotating in the 5th slot.  Presumably, he figures, better to have the rotation in the 5th slot than the 4th slot.

He had enough of that, so then he moved Bruce back to the 5th slot, keeping Phillips as cleanup, and making the 2nd slot the rotating slot.  So, we are now here: Stubbs still and always leadoff, Votto still and always third, Phillips the permanent replacement at cleanup until Rolen comes back, and Bruce reinstalled at fifth.  The second slot being the rotating slot, you have Renteria there, and Paul Janish(!).

Then, Rolen came back, but he’s eased into the sixth slot (which was Cairo’s semi-permament slot). 

Finally, he’s given back his cleanup slot, Phillips is given back his #2 slot, and now we are finally back to where we started the season.

Except now, Rolen again didn’t play, and so, Baker wanting to keep his lineup fixed, simply rotated in the third baseman (Cairo) into the cleanup slot.

Does all this make sense?  Who knows.  But, why is it important to give the great player a fixed role, while rotating the lesser players around the 6th through 8th slots (presumably, I didn’t check, to break up lefty/righty based on opposing pitcher)?

If anyone needs confidence, it’s the lesser players.  Does Joey Votto really need to know he has to bat third, regardless of the context?  Is his ego that fragile?  Or, is Votto so confident since he first picked up a baseball bat that he’s prepared to hit anywhere in the lineup, and be awesome doing so?

Do we need real pyschologists weighing in here, or is dime-store pyschology what we need?

Reference: B-R.com


#1    philosofool      (see all posts) 2011/05/27 (Fri) @ 13:11

One argument for juggling the number sixth through eight hitters is that since they see fewer at bats, it’s less important for them to play consistently. Another is that certain guys “role” is to hit, so you have tom handle their hitting consistently; if a guy’s role is not to hit but play the field, you can be more flexible in how you handle their hitting.

I don’t really think either argument is good, but you can see where they come from.


#2          (see all posts) 2011/05/27 (Fri) @ 13:47

We absolutely need real psychologists to weigh in on this issue, I think.


#3    mettle      (see all posts) 2011/05/27 (Fri) @ 13:55

Batting order is probably more about routine and routine timing—which is common across all sports— than prestige.
This only really matters the first time through the order and for the first, say, 4 or 5 batters. For the rest, you don’t even know if you’re up in the inning or not.


#4    Jeremy Williams (Epee9)      (see all posts) 2011/05/28 (Sat) @ 17:37

I can imagine a quantitative measurement of this, but controls would be impossible; systematic error would be through the roof.

Would this be worth doing badly?  I wonder.


#5    DavidJ      (see all posts) 2012/03/10 (Sat) @ 05:22

"Or, is Votto so confident since he first picked up a baseball bat that he’s prepared to hit anywhere in the lineup, and be awesome doing so?”

Loved hearing Dustin Pedroia express such confidence during a recent interview (at about the 9:15 mark):

http://www.nesn.com/2012/02/dustin-pedroia-embarrassed-by-end-to-2011-agrees-with-josh-becketts-take-on-snitching-in-red-sox-clu.html

“I’ll rake anywhere.”


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