from Amazon
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Jim Rice? How about Vladimir Guerrero and Andruw Jones?
Is Vlad a Hall of Famer if he retired today?
What if he played for two more seasons? And he had a .324 OBP with a .318 SLG? Basically, if he hit like the worst hitter in the league for two years, would that bump up his case?
Well, if he did that, if he played really crappy for two years, he’d have the same hitting line, exactly the same, as Duke Snider.
Duke’s a CF, right? Ok, how about this: he plays for 2 1/2 years, hits .200 OBP and a .237 SLG. Is he in after he does that? That’s the difference between Vlad and Orlando Cepeda. Ok, Cepeda played in the 60s.
How about if he played for three more seasons, and he hit .233 OBP and .283 SLG? That’s the difference between Jim Rice and Vlad. So, Vlad would have to hit worse than the worst player ever practically to get Jim Rice’s career. And Rice is on the cusp of the HOF.
There’s no question that Vlad would be in the HOF, if he retired today.
Andruw Jones, who has virtually the same number of Runs scored, RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, HBP, and a bit more walks as Vlad, but he has 600 more batting outs… what about him?
Well, if Andruw turns 30 more hits into outs every year and he does that for 10 years, that gives him 300 more fielding outs than Vlad. He’s also a CF.
Andruw Jones, if he did retire today, would also be in the Hall of Fame. You’d be hard-pressed to argue that Kirby Puckett had a better career than Andruw, as of today. And Andruw is less than 1 full season in reaching Kirby’s playing time.
Now, you want a really tough argument? Try Pujols. Forget the 10-year rule (Pujols has the same number of PA as David Ortiz, yet Ortiz would qualify for the HOF.) Do you put Pujols in today?
I get your point on Jones--that he’s had as good a career as Kirby’s--but the voters wouldn’t put him in if he retired today. The Puckett comparison isn’t really valid:
- Puckett’s value was largely concentrated in batting average, which the voters love, while Andruw has a low career AVG;
- Puckett’s career ended tragically (in the eye of the voters) while Andruw would just be walking away voluntarily;
- Andruw has no rings, and the Braves dynasty are considered playoff chokers in general. Kirby hit well in two World Series victories;
- If Andruw retired today, some voters would speculate that he was close to finished as a player, since he declined so much last year.
At least Vlad still has the big batting average, plus he makes the All Star team every year and always shows up in the MVP vote. And if his counting numbers come up short, they can always argue he was “feared”.