THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

His UZR/150 in CF in 2011 was acceptable (3.0), albeit in probably too small of a sample size to pass judgement one way or another (151 innings).
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Nationals&pos=all&stats=fld&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

The Nats clearly have struggled to find a quality center fielder, really not having one who was above average both offensively and defensively since moving to Washington.  So if the team can “get by” with Werth in CF, even given that he’s not a superstar defender, then the team may be ahead of the game.  That’s going to be better than giving 500 ABs to a guy with an OPS+ of 80 (Ankiel, Bernadina, other internal options).

Plus, it allows us a ton more flexibility to get FAs or candidates in trade who can man corner outfield spots.  I know the big buzz is that Bryce Harper will start in RF in 2012, but really there’s two major impediments to that theory:
1. Harper needs to prove himself at AA and probably AAA before earning a call-up
2. The Nats really, really want to avoid super-2 status with him, by virtue of the earning potential it would enable (see Lincecum, Tim).

Put Werth in Center, keep Morse in left, sign/trade/acquire a RFer, re-sign Ankiel to be a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement since his defense is so stellar and he bats left in a righty-heavy lineup, and wait for Harper.  That’s a good Washington plan for 2012.

Todd/1:

1. No need to do what you did with UZR.  I did it better.  Why talk about 2011 in isolation, and then adding all the caveats you did?

2. “Harper needs to prove himself at AA and probably AAA before earning a call-up “

Why is that?  Just because?  Perhaps you can remind me of Ryan Zimmerman.

Yes, yes, I know, the age.  But, you are just making an assertion with Harper.  You may be right, but an opinion that concludes with something without evidence is not worth listening to.

***

I see you are new around here, so, thanks for taking friendly-fire.  We’ll eventually make it up to you.

Fair enough on uzr analysis.

Zimmerman was actually successful in his AA stint (63 games, .898 ops) before earning a cup of coffee under a different GM who liked to do that kind of thing (i.e., give rising stars that kind of Sept 1 callup).  It ended up working out for Zimmerman but has badly backfired for Ross Detwiler (who got a similar call up and is now out of options and forcing the Nats hand).

Harper had half as many AA games and only had a .724 ops.  As a younger, less mature hitter.  I think age does matter; a 20yr old accomplished college hitter makes an adjustment more easily than someone like Harper, who is 3-4 years younger than the guys he’s going against.

Not sure what “evidence” i can provide to “prove” what I wrote.  I read every word from every Nats beat reporter, and all indications are that Rizzo likes to bring guys along slow, make them earn their keep at each level (similarly to the way Tampa Bay brings along prospects).  Now, Johnson just wants the best 25 guys on the field, so maybe Harper does make the team out of spring.  But that has such huge payroll ramifications (guaranteeing Harper super-2 status) that I just can’t see it happening.  Rizzo kept Strasburg in the minors until he missed super-2 and I’d be shocked if he didn’t do the same with Harper.

My 2 cents: I want Harper in AA again and hit his way up.

Great, thanks.  I was taking issue that you said that Harper needs to prove himself. 

Is that your personal sentiment, that you want players to show successful outcome numbers in a previous level before given the chance at the next level?  Or were you speaking for the Nats?

If it’s the latter, then fine.  You are forecasting what management likes to do.

If it’s the former, then I don’t like the idea.  If a scout says he’s ready, and even if he’s not showing big outcome numbers, then that’s an extra variable to consider.  Junior didn’t prove himself in AA. He barely played in AA.  Dwight Gooden was brought up after A ball.  So, it’s not a necessary threshold that needs to be met by young players.

Griffey played all of 17 games at AA when he was 18.  Pujols went straight to the majors after a season of low A, skipping 3 levels.

Jason Heyward played 47 games of AA (which he dominated) and 3 games of AAA. Andruw Jones at 19 played 38 games in AA, 12 in AAA, but he completely overmatched those leagues.

Going back a ways, Cesar Cedeno played 54 dominant AAA games at age 19.  Mickey Mantle went from C level at age 18 (one of 4 C teams in Yankee system, with 6 teams at levels higher than that) to the majors.  Mick started his age 19 year in the majors but was demoted to AAA in the middle of the season.

Obviously service time is a bigger issue now than it was back then.

Rally: right.

I think there seems to be this presumption that you “must” have outcome numbers at a certain level before you are allowed to move up.

But, outcome numbers are NOT a proxy for true talent.  They are indicators, but so is scouting.  Presumably the scouts believed in Junior enough that they didn’t need to see him in AA any more than they already did.  Sure, you have guys that are giving a jump only to be sent down momentarily (ARod probably).

But, I’m just arguing about the outcome-requirement-threshold.  It’s just one variable, and not THE variable.

BJ Upton was considered on that phenom track when he was 19 and made the Rays at the end of 2004.  Then the Rays sent him back to AAA for two years.  As a result, they still control his rights this season instead of watching him leave with Carl Crawford after 2010.

Given the way free agency works, teams that are coldly logical (like the Rays) will prefer to have a guy for ages 22-27 instead of 20-25.  Even if he’s ready to contribute at age 21, they know they can only have him for 6 years and just about every player is better at age 27 than he was at age 20.

This is a negative for baseball fans and for the few great players (not calling Upton great, just an example) that it could affect.  I think the chances of a young Mickey Mantle breaking camp in the big leagues at age 19 is significanlty less than it was in his day (though if he were still a Yankee, they don’t need to worry as much about service time as the Rays do.)

As Tango has mentioned before, age based free agency would be the best option for the sport.  It would stop all of the system gaming and the only consideration for who got to play would be their ability to contribute.

It’s incredible that the new CBA doesn’t have age-based free agency.

I mean like NHL: both age-based and service-based.

"The Nats clearly have struggled to find a quality center fielder, really not having one who was above average both offensively and defensively since moving to Washington.”

Nyjer Morgan was that before he was jettisoned out of town for nothing.

I’m pretty sure Harper is not affected by Super 2 status because he is signed through 2015. That means even if he plays in 2012, he is eligible for arbitration in 2015 but he is signed that year for $1 Million. Though the concern has to be service time related. If they call him up a month after the season starts, they get him for 7 years rather than 6 years.

Don’t even have to wait a month.  Just two weeks.  A service year is 172 days.

Season starts Apr 5, 2012 for Nats, and ends Oct 3.  That’s 182 roster days.  So, if he’s on the roster 11 days later, that’s April 16.  He misses the first 10 games.

It’s not clear to me how his service time is affected if he signed a MLB deal from the outset.

#10/pm: Disagree with sentiment about Nyjer Morgan.  He started out hot, then put up a god-awful 73 OPS+ in 2010.  .314 obp out of the leadoff spot.  Great defense absolutely.  But also a knucklehead who caused problems in the clubhouse and needed to go.  I know he put up great numbers in Milwaukee, but have a feeling its just a matter of time before he wears out his welcome there (see the whole Pujols incitement incident).

I’m pretty sure his current contract doesn’t mean much in terms of service time.  Having signed a 40-man contract just means he gets through his options one year earlier.  Super-2 status is attained through service time only.  The fact that he’s already signed for one of his arbitration years just means we’ve pre-bought out one of the arbitration years.  It still means he’d have three more, with escalating salaries for each.

#12
I don’t get why he would have 3 more arbitration years after the bought out year. Assuming he starts the year in Washington in 2012, he will have 4 years of service time at the end of his contract. That means he has 2 more arbitration years then he is a free agent which makes a total of 3 arbitration years (1 bought out, 2 paid out).

Morgan played himself out of town in DC.  I was at one game where he went back to the wall, tried to make a leaping catch and missed it.  Then he throws his glove on the ground and throws a tantrum while the batter circles the bases for an inside the parker.  Yeah, it’s just one play, but I can’t remember seeing any other outfielder do something like that, ever.  He had a lot of situations that year where he handled himself poorly.

My stat take on “proving yourself”.

Harper had 311 PA in 2010, 272 in JuCo, 39 in the AFL. I have a MLE of 230/290/396, a 299 wOBA. It might be higher as I had not adjusted for his college numbers being in a wood bat league. Now that I have a pre 2010 to 2011 conversion I may be able to rectify that.

In 2011 he had 557 PA in A, AA & Fall, MLE of 261/334/442, 338 wOBA. One of the better seasons for an 18 year old in the past 15 seasons, helped by his 333/400/634 raw line in the AFL.

Oliver calculates a healthy improvement from age 18 to 19, but 145 pro games and just over 800 weighted PAs is still only about 2/3 of a full sample, so his projection has a decent percent of regression still present, coming out at 260/330/463, 342 wOBA. Just about the same as his 2011 MLE, a little more power.

That’s still a 2012 projection that’s MLB average for a corner outfielder. Oliver sees Harper as above average (364, 382) in 2013 & 2014, then settling in a round a 400 wOBA (394, 403, 408) at ages 22-24 (2015-17).

Looking back at other top prospects who came to MLB before age 20 (Griffey, Sheffield, ARod), none did any better than MLB average in those seasons, but did perform much better at age 20.

If Harper goes to AA and AAA in 2012 and meets or exceeds expectations, his projections become even better and he’s a no brainer to be in the Nats’ lineup come 2013 at age 20. If he has some struggles in 2012, there would be somewhat less pressure in the minors.

By starting Harper’s service clock in early 2013 (even with a 2012 cup of coffee) the Nats will likely be able to push off his free agent eligibility until after 2019.