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Monday, March 15, 2010
Jacoby Ellsbury, saberist, but very very late
Obviously, not a single person has explained to him how it works, because if they did, well, then he’d have to come to some sort of realization:
“I haven’t really looked into it, but from what I understand, a deep fly ball into right field, if it’s sky high, that’s looked at as the same amount of range as a line drive that’s caught. How do you break that down?
“To me, it really can’t be accurately measured. What’s the difference with shifting? If you just take a diagram, if the strategy for the team is to play deep or play shallow, how does that factor? There are a lot of things that factor.
“What happens if it hits the Monster? It’s only X amount of feet, but you’re saying that another outfielder would have caught that ball. Well, I couldn’t because there’s a 50-foot Wall right there. How do you judge that?
“Maybe over time, they can take some of the kinks out of it. But for now, in my opinion, I don’t think it’s very accurate.”
For the record Jacoby, we watch the same game you play, and we:
1. Do NOT treat a line drive like a fly ball
2. Some metrics MAY use shifts if available (though most treat positioning as a player skill, not a manager skill)
3. Fielders are compared to other fielders in the same park
The “over time” has already happened. So, Jacoby does ask the right questions. That’s #1 in being a good saberist.
We also look to see if you have a GB or FB pitcher on the mound or even the actual pitcher, some of us look at who’s hitting or his handedness, the base/out situation. Even hang time if that’s available. Really, we’ve got it pretty well covered.
Why ask a driver about his car when you can go to the guys testing the cars?
I wonder what he would be saying if the metrics rated him a good fielder instead of a poor one. Would he still have these qualms?