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Monday, December 05, 2011
Is Dirk Hayhurst looking for a mainstream media job?
I love Dirk Hayhurst. Great insight, wonderful writing. Which stands in direct contrast to his latest blog post:
But there is more to victory then payroll size, production, and the quantifiable. There is the metaphysical, the emotional, and the delicate art of producing good team chemistry.
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The great teams know how to manipulate this formula to the advantage of the players, and the proper mix can allow a spreadsheet laughing stock to triumph over a payroll powerhouse.
Yes, I agree with Dirk. Let’s call this the Willie Ballgame theory. Willie Bloomquist, every year, defines replacement level. He’s lucky to get a job when he does (though this year, he seems to have upped the ante). But a player that is a replacement level has very very limited MLB shelf life remaining. If you are a replacement level player today, and you are already in your mid 20s, you have a year or two left. But Willie Ballgame busts that trend. Rather than aging, letting his physical drop result in decreased production, he maintains the same level of production every year. Craig Counsell, John McDonald, to name a few, are other players (not necessarily replacement-level in the case of Counsell for his career), who maintain the same level of talent every year.
And, if you want to argue that the reason for that, that the reason that these guys can buck their forecasts and produce above expectation, is that there’s some intangible aspect to them, I can totally buy it.
And, if you want to argue that there’s some players who go the other way, who simply don’t learn, don’t try enough, and who are out of baseball far earlier than they should, that they always perform below expectation because there’s some intangible aspect to them, I can totally buy that too.
Indeed, if this is something real, then it would be a tremendous benefit to know that, to be able to identify such players. Indeed, it’s very possible a seasoned scout can look at two 20-yr old ballplayers, who put up the same production numbers, and come out with a far different evaluation because he can establish that one player is much more likely to adapt, while the other is more likely to die (metaphorically). I can certainly accept this premise.
By the time he was 30 years old, Counsell had come to bat a total of 961 times, albeit with a 4.5 WAR (average of 3.3 WAR per 700 PA). So, two things:
1. Why was he not given the chance earlier
2. Given that he was already 30 years old, and nowhere to go but down, the likelihood is we could expect out of him is another 7-8 wins for his career. But, he got another 16 wins, according to Fangraphs, and 15 wins according to Baseball-Reference.
And so, I was eager to hear from the insights of Dirk Hayhurst, as someone who was in the lion’s den, and could shed light here. Maybe provide evidence, even anecdotal. Some insight.
Instead, he presented his summary opinion with no evidence. It was disappointing to say the least that someone in the position to possibly know about how team chemistry affects a team, and perhaps know how to identify players that contributes to team chemistry, gave us nothing of the sort. And instead, he relied on the tried-but-true arguments from the mainstream media.
You can do better than that Dirk.
Your math is fantastic. But I don’t think you can turn what I was talking about when I said “formula” into something numerical. It takes a personality adapt at handling other complex personalities to help steer a major league clubhouse’s social climate—and the social climate plays a larger factor then lots of people think.
I’m sorry you didn’t get what you want from my post, but to slam it because it didn’t contribute to some check list of things you wanted me to talk about in your head is just unnecessary. Also, I would never, as a player trying to keep playing, name the names of players whose personal issues effect the team.
I’m afraid you’re wrong, I cannot do any better.