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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Is Carlos Guillen delusional?

By Tangotiger, 10:36 AM

Here’s what he said:

If you’re going to bring in a shortstop, it’d better be a Gold Glove (winner)—someone with better numbers than mine

What numbers is he talking about?  From 2000-2006, in 668 games at SS (innings divided by 9), Guillen has 2.84 assists and 1.52 putouts per game. His teammates at SS (456 games), have 3.02 assists and 1.60 putouts.  That’s 0.18 less assists per game, or 27 less per 150 games.  His teammates include: ARod (3.06 assists, 143 games), Infante (3.36, 69), McLemore (2.78, 63), Sanchez (2.53, 43), Relaford (2.56, 34), everyone else (3.20, 30). Those are the simple numbers. His UZR, since 2003, is -8 runs per 150 G.  That’s the complicated number.  Again, what number is he talking about?  He’s obviously in the decline phase, too.  However, he could have a point that 1B places more stress on his knee. 


#1    cam      (see all posts) 2007/09/19 (Wed) @ 12:04

He’s saying the new SS better be a GG to make up for the lack of offense that would result.


#2    Rally      (see all posts) 2007/09/19 (Wed) @ 12:42

I agree with Carlos.  Take a likely available shortstop with a good glove and OK bat for the position, Jack Wilson.  Jack is probably 15 runs better on defense than Carlos, maybe 20.  You could make this move, but you’d be better off looking for a 1B who creates 20 more runs than Jack Wilson.  Start by not resigning Sean Casey.


#3    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2007/09/19 (Wed) @ 13:07

I agree that it would make sense if that’s what he meant.  I sure didn’t read it like that.  Perhaps some Tiger fans can chime in, since it’s likely that this isn’t the first time he’s been asked about it.


#4    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2007/09/19 (Wed) @ 13:15

He’s definitely not talking about “overall”, unless he thinks that Cesar Izturis and Omar Vizquel, are, overall, as good as he is.  Vizquel might be having the worst offensive stats in MLB this year.

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/21775

“I heard a lot of rumors about Jack Wilson,” Guillen said, referring to the Pittsburgh shortstop. “I don’t know what his numbers are. He didn’t win a Gold Glove.” If not Wilson, whom would Guillen endorse? “Cesar Izturis,” Guillen said of the Pirates’ other shortstop, who will become a free agent this off-season if Pittsburgh declines a club option. “Omar Vizquel. He’s got 11 Gold Gloves.”


#5    Rally      (see all posts) 2007/09/19 (Wed) @ 15:56

So Guillen must think that he’s as good or better defensively than anyone who has not won a gold glove.

Good thing he’s not in charge of personel moves.


#6    Rally      (see all posts) 2007/09/19 (Wed) @ 15:58

Funny that the actual AL gold glover is one of the few everyday shortstops who’s actually worse than Guillen. 

Him staying at short is probably optimal anyway.  Just get a real bat to play first, then stroke Guillen’s ego by telling him you couldn’t get a gold glover.


#7    MGL      (see all posts) 2007/09/19 (Wed) @ 16:22

ALL Major Leaguers are so good at fielding (OK, maybe not the Giambi’s, et al.) that I doubt that many of them have any clue as to how good or bad they are as compared to any other major leaguer, not to mention the natural bias among professionl athletes that they are one of the best.  (Plus, unlike offense, they are not aware of any meaningful stats to define their fielding prowess.)

Do you think that Jeter knows that he is a poor fielder?  I’m pretty sure that he thinks that he is indeed a gold glover.  Do you remember the hissey fit that Griffey had a few weeks ago when he was taken out for defensive puproses.  Jeter and Griffey (two of the worst fielders in baseball) thinking that they are two of the best - ‘nuff said.  Why would Guillen be any different?


#8    Ty      (see all posts) 2007/09/20 (Thu) @ 06:12

Maybe what Guillen thought was when his new 4-yrs contract expired, he’d rather to be a veteran (but lousy fielding) SS than an old (and maybe subpar) first baseman.


#9          (see all posts) 2007/09/20 (Thu) @ 12:39

I am with you all the way MGL.  I try to imagine how healthy Griffey could have been the past several years if he would have been playing a less demanding defensive position instead of center which he had no business attempting.  Pride comes before the fall and we all know Griffey has fallen a lot in Cincinatti.


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