THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Yes.

No… well, I’d actually like to see someone run the numbers on this one. It may be “bar-none” but I’d guess it’s more likely “probably”.

Since you’ve asked I have to at least consider the possibility, but just eyeballing the numbers real quick it doesn’t seem like he’s a lock. A guy like Elmer Dessens probably would give him a real run for his money.

I’m guessing that anyone who can throw a 3.42 ERA in 68 innings in year Y-1 will never truly be the worst pitcher in year Y.

Hard to tell.  He looks pretty bad, but there are probably dozens of fringe MLB relievers who are equally bad, or close enough to make it had to tell.  Most of them, including Hennessey, probably won’t be MLB pitchers for very long.

The reason I asked was that I just happened to notice today that I had him as almost a run worse than replacement as a starter which is easily the worst projection I have ever had for a pitcher.

Assuming your projections are done properly (I’m sure they’re at least pretty good), I guess the answer has to be yes. But it’s hard to believe that he’s the worst in the MLB if his FIP was about league average in 2007, and was projected to be around the same this season. If Kei Igawa counts, then he’s probably in the bottom 5, too.

MGL-- I’m not sure where to find your email, but are you in town for Cornell homecoming this weekend?

I am in the (Cornell) area this weekend, but I am pretty sick.
The last 5 years here are Hennesy’s component FIP or DIPS ERA:

04 4.71
05 4.81
06 5.12
07 4.68
08 5.93

Much of that is as a reliever.  Even though my projection is almost a run worse than replacement (as a starter), I wouldn’t go by that.  As a general rule, I don’t go “above” .2 or so worse than replacement (a run and change worse than average), as I just assume that any pitcher worse than that would not be pitching in MLB.

I probably should not have said, “bar none.” Brandon Backe could probably give him a run for his money.  And I may have missed a few other stinkers.

He hasn’t pitched this year, but where do your projections have Russ Ortiz?

Ortiz.  Is.  Horrible.  Same category as these other guys.  Far worse than replacement level.  In the same category as Estes, only worse.  An old pitcher who wasn’t good (in fact terrible) before he got hurt and stopped pitching.  Unless he got an arm transplant sometime in the last 2 years…

Duckworth is another one (among terrible pitchers who continue to be allowed to pitch).

The funny thing is that in my pre-season pitcher projections, if I project a rookie or very young (experience-wise) pitcher as really bad, they don’t put up numbers nearly as bad.  For example, if I take all of my rookie pitchers who were projected at, say, above 5.50 (where league average is 4.50), with an average of, say, 5.75, they pitch at around 5.00 or something like that.

Obviously what is happening is that while my minor league projections (based on MLE’s) may not be bad on the average, teams are choosing the best ones out of the ones that I think are terrible, based on “scouting” (and numbers that I am not using, like anything under AA and AAA).

However, the veterans who I project as horrible pitch to around their projection.

What that means, I think, is that, one, the veteran pitcher projections are much more reliable (as expected) plus teams are not doing a good job at separating the good (or at least not so bad) from the bad ones (among the ones who project badly by me).

For example, here are the top 10 veteran starters with the worst projections on my pre-season pitcher projection list, who actually pitched as starters this year:

Ponson
Redman
Eaton
Moyer
Estes
Marquis
L Hernandez
Redding
Backe
S Olsen

Their simple (not weighting by IP or TBF) ERA this year was 5.19 or around .86 runs worse than the average ERA in both leagues combined.

No love for Scott Elarton and Steve Trachsel?

No questions that they are in the same category, but they are not still pitching as far as I know.  Elarton pitched a few games in relief for the Indians this year and I think that Trachsel is finally and mercifully retired.  What boggles me is when these kinds of pitchers (.5 to a run worse than replacement) are still starting for a team.

Hell the Cubs (a playoff team even) actually traded for Trachsel last year.  Then the Orioles still welcomed Trachsel back this year.  The Orioles have a couple of pitchers who have pitched over a 100 innings the past couple seasons that just have been awful.  And Daniel Cabrera after probably being a league average starter coming into the year went to awful this year.  Granted they play in the hardest division, but still.

I agree with Sean that the Orioles have several pitchers in the running.  Trachsel was just unfathomably bad, but at least he was sent to pasture.  Daniel Cabrera is probably hurt, but he’s now a guy who throws 88-90, still has no idea where the pitches are going, and can consistently get anything but his now-mediocre fastball anywhere near the plate.  The 2nd half of 2008 he threw 51 innings, allowing 112 baserunners, nine homers, while striking out 24.  Led the AL in walks, HBP, and wild pitches.

I nominate the entire Baltimore pitching staff. Three starters with 6.00+ ERA’s. If I could only pick 1, I’d pick Garrett Olson:

6.65 ERA, 133 IP, 168 H, 62 BB, 17 HRA

Although Brian Burres (6.09 ERA) has been almost as bad in the same amount of IP.

Radhames Liz (6.72 ERA) has been even worse than Olson and Burress, but has pitched 50 fewer innings.

Honorable mention goes to Daniel Cabrera who has a 5.25 ERA in 180 IP to go along with 15 WP and 18 HBP.

The Orioles have the worst pitching staff I have ever seen. I live near the Baltimore area, and while not an Orioles fan, I have watched most of their games this year.

Since July 6 (Not including yesterday’s game), they have a Team ERA of 6.08. A 23-50 record in that time-span.

Since August 10, they have a team ERA of 6.39 and 11-33 record.

Last year beginning with the game that they gave up 30 runs (8/22/07) to the End of the season, the O’s had a 7.61 ERA and 11-28 record. Opponents hit .314/.402/.488 off of them.

Two historical pitching collapses in back-to-back seasons.

The Orioles have been doing this second half collapse thing for most of the last decade.  Not that they’re all that good in the first half either.

They just seem not to be capable of competing for a full 162 games, and run out of gas around 120 or so.  Maybe it’s a training/conditioning problem.

Too bad because they actually hit well this year.

I would suggest pickup up a guy like Adam Everett in the offseason, the Orioles this year got nothing offensively or defensively from SS.  At least Everett can save you a few runs.

But the Oriole defense is not that bad.  Their DER is in the middle of the pack, and while their pitchers were last in the league in walks, homers, and strikeouts, they were only 2nd to last in runs allowed.  The blame all lies with this staff.  Outside of Guthrie, these Orioles are the definition of a replacement level pitching staff.

Rally,

The 2nd half collapse for the Orioles has happened 7 out of the last 8 seasons. During those 7 seasons, they have a 2nd half Win% of .367. and a .304 Win% in September.

Rally: it would have to be someone other than Everett.  The Twins fans say that his arm collapsed, post-injury.  Your point is made though, as the Orioles fans were way down on their shortstops.

Here are Cabrera’s normalized neutralized component ERA’s and DIPS ERA’s (where the s,d,t, are set to league average):

4.00 is a league average starter and pitcher in general.

Year NERC NERC (DIPS)
2004 4.00 4.54
2005 4.07 3.82
2006 4.27 3.98
2007 4.19 4.54
2008 5.34 5.33

The biggest difference this year is that he didn’t strike anyone out. If he were hurt and recovers, that is good news for the O’s.  I don’t see this guy ever becoming more than an average starter. I didn’t think that a couple of years ago either (that he would ever be a good pitcher).  You can see that his size and delivery style just doesn’t lend itself to knowing where the ball is going.

I think that a good rule of thumb is that if a pitcher has good or great stuff and no idea where the ball is going, the best he can be is a league average pitcher.

The rest of the BAL starters, Liz, Waters, Burres, Olsen, etc., are just run of the mill, entirely fungible replacement pitchers, maybe a little worse. None of them had any good MLE’s in the minors.

You can’t really criticize a team for fielding replacement players unless they pay them substantially more than the league minimum.  What would you want (as a responsible owner at least)?  A star who makes 5 or 10 mil more than he is worth?

I am curious.  Anyone know how Guthrie all of a sudden last year stopped walking so many batters?  That is an unusual turnaround for a pitcher.  Did he develop a sinker that he never had before and just started throwing it in the zone?

I have no idea what happened with Guthrie.  He was a replacement level pitcher a year ago in that he was left off the Indian’s 40 and signed as a minor league free agent.  When I first saw him I was a surprised at how hard he threw.

If Cabrera recovers some velocity, he might make a decent reliever.  I wouldn’t want him in my rotation.