THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Is Aroldis Chapman Nolan Ryan?

It took Nolan Ryan a career to overcome his control issues, even as he was passing 100mph for Guiness.  Luckily for Ryan, he had two careers worth in his arm.

One year before he signed his ground-breaking contract with the Astros, Ryan was averaging a walk rate of nearly 15% of his batters faced… his 10,000 batters faced up to that point.  In his next 12,000 batters faced, he averaged just over 10%.  All the while he struck out 25% of his batters faced before the breakpoint and after the breakpoint.  His K rate remained flat, while his BB rate dropped by nearly 30%.  You might see this early in a pitcher’s career, someone like Kershaw.  You don’t usually see it with 32 year old pitchers. 

What will Chapman go through?