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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Insuring player contracts

By Tangotiger, 02:08 PM

Gammons reported:

Everyone in the business understands that the Mets did not insure Beltran

But what does that mean exactly?  How does insurance work?  I had a thread on this two years ago where I quoted a great article (go there and read the whole thing):

Each team pays a premium based on the salaries of its five highest-paid players, but is free to allocate that coverage how it wishes. Typically, a team will extend coverage to as many as seven players, Daly said. Coverage kicks in when a player misses at least 30 games. Beyond that, individual teams are free to pursue additional coverage, but the heavy premiums make it a losing proposition. To insure a player under the league program, it costs about 5 percent of his salary. To insure additional players, it would cost substantially more.

So, if your top 5 contracts total say 60MM$, you buy insurance totalling 60MM$.  Say that costs you, I don’t know, 2MM$ in premiums.  You then decide how to spread out that level of coverage (60MM$) over as many contracts as you want.  You might cover the whole team, or just the 5 players.  This is a pure arbitrage opportunity.  Again, presuming that this is like a “group rate”, then the teams simply would cover most of their pitchers, and any of their regular players who are injury prone.  Everyone else is self-insured (meaning that the teams cover the insurance themselves… they simply keep paying players for not playing).

It’s pretty straight forward how an insurance company would set the premium rates.  If over the past 10 years they’ve had to pay out an average of 50MM$ per year (inflation-adjusted), then they make sure to set the rate at close to that (and make a profit).  So, teams spending an average of 2MM$ each does that.  And, then in order to make sure that the Yanks pay more than the Marlins, you make it proportionate to their payrolls somehow.  (All numbers for illustration only.)

There is really no big reason that you need to go to an insurance company.  It really only helps in the catastrophic cases, like ARod having a career-ending injury early on in his contract.  As long as one team is not disproportionately affected, then insurance doesn’t really help or hurt in the grand scheme of things.  As I noted, pitchers are a huge risk, so that’s where the coverage should go.  But if all teams do this, then the arbitrate opportunity is gone (insurance companies will eventually pay out “too much” realizing that the market place is covering injury-prone players, and so, they up the premiums).

Anyway, this post is a little disjointed, but hopefully you followed along.


#1    Peter Jensen      (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 15:10

Each team pays a premium based on the salaries of its five highest-paid players...To insure a player under the league program, it costs about 5 percent of his salary.

This seems pretty explicit as to the dollar amounts and how it is allocated between the teams.  How a team allocates the coverage with its players is a pure actuarial excercise based on chance of injury and size of contracts.  Pitchers are probably the most likely to suffer a work caused lost time injury, but they may not best ones to include under coverage if their contract salaries are smaller or for shorter duration.


#2    Hizouse      (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 16:18

I just can’t see this system (for NHL) being similar to MLB system.  First, if MLB had a league-wide policy, I think we’d have heard of it by now.  Second, the numbers are big enough that the teams and the insurance companies have huge incentive to get it right.  I understand the point about insurance companies raising rates to limit arbitrage, but if I had a team that had relatively inexpensive pitchers, or if my top 5 salaries were an unusually high percentage of the payroll, or for whatever other reason I thought my team had less risk than the premiums indicated, I would get my own policy.

I thought I had read the Braves had an umbrella policy that paid the first $X million in lost time wages, regardless of player, but I can’t find it now, plus it doesn’t make sense to me.

I have also read, but from no credible source I can recall, that no one will insure a pitcher for more than 3 years any more, and the cost is about 1/10 of salary for coverage of 1/2 of salary.

Some details came out about the policy on Mike Hampton when the Braves sued the insurer last year; that policy was for 5-years (covered 2001-2005 season) but provided for continuing payments in the case of “total disability.” Here’s a link to the complaint, which does not have a lot of details:
http://docs.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/georgia/gandce/1:2009cv00403/157007/1/0.pdf


#3          (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 16:52

I don’t really understand the point of insurance, from the teams perspective.  If they’re paying a premium (which of course, they are)...on average, they lose more money from the insurance than they receive.  Considering they can afford the salaries (why sign a player in the first place if you can’t fit them into the budget?), and they plan on being in business long term...I’m just not seeing the benefit - they’d be better off without the insurance, right?  I guess maybe there’s some compounding effect when injuries lead to less wins and thus less revenues, so they actually lose more than just the value of the contract when the best players get hurt?  I’m not sure if that can make the insurance worthwhile or not.

So I guess the point is...why does insurance make sense for a team, long term?


#4    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 17:12

Long-term, insurance makes no sense.


#5    Ian      (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 17:34

#4 Tango is right, if insurance made sense for a team long-term, it wouldn’t make sense for the insurance company to offer it.  Unless you knew that your team would be less healthy than the insurance company could possibly expect.  I smell a market inefficiency: bad medical staffs are the new OBP.


#6          (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 17:46

So...why are teams doing it?  Sure players, coaches, and GM’s come and go, but generally the owners - the ones with the financial stake here - are in it long term...so I’m just confused.


#7    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 18:01

Let’s say a team spends 2MM$ a year on insurance premiums.  If they are in it long-term, say for 20 yearsm that’s 40MM$ (present-day) that they are throwing away.

In return for that, if players are hurt and their contracts need to be paid out, it’s covered.  If they have contracts that could be costing them more than 40MM$, then insurance might make sense.  Or, if they think there’s a, say, 10% or better chance of paying out more than 60MM$ in contracts for non-playing players, then it might make sense.

It is TOTALLY based on the risk-aversity of the guy getting the insurance.

I presume insuring players happened only when the rise in contracts started.


#8          (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 18:08

The reason it works for both sides is that the insurance companies believe they can invest the premiums (which they get up front) in investments that will produce a reasonable return even if the expected level of claims is paid.  If they guess right on the market and luck out on the claims paid, they make a killing.  Or they can hedge the investments (using relatively benign versions of the products that caused the economy to collapse two years ago) and lock in a return that will cover their likely payouts plus a profit.  Or they can hedge the payouts through reinsurance. 

As to why the teams do it, I assume because it provides them funds to acquire a player to take the injured player’s place.


#9          (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 19:49

Insurance costs 5% of a player’s salary.  If the insurance company’s profit margin is (say) 10%, then the insurance really costs only 1/2 of 1% of the salary.

There are advantages to spending this money.  I can only think of two, but here they are:

1.  Less pressure to play an injured player

2.  The potential to appease the fans after a crappy season (due to injuries) by having more money to spend on free agents for next year

3.  If a free-agent signing disappoints, the team can “cheat” by putting him on the DL a bit more readily than it would have otherwise.  They can also leave him there longer to make sure he heals properly with less pressure from the GM or owner.

If I were a highly-paid player, I’d be happy if my team had injury insurance ... I’d feel like a pile of crap if I hurt myself and cost my team $10 million worth of performance.  I’d be more likely to sign with a team that said they were going to insure me.


#10    Hizouse      (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 20:09

Not that this is a great revelation or anything, but: I hope and expect that I “lose” on every insurance policy I get (home, life, auto, health, disability).  That is, I hope, up front, that I pay more (a lot more) in premiums than I ever receive in benefits.  That doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense for me to get insurance, because I am insuring against catastrophic costs that are unlikely but which if incurred I would have no hope of paying.  And that peace of mind, knowing that I (and my family) will be OK in the event of a disaster is worth something to me.

Same for MLB teams, although there may be more of a concern about limiting exposure.  But I think Breadbaker #8 hits the reason why teams do it.  If there’s an injury to an expensive player, there is a cost to replace that player, and teams with strict budgets may need that money.  Other teams may be more risk tolerant. 

If a GM has a strict $100 million budget for salaries plus insurance, a GM may have to decide whether he’d rather spend his last $3 million on a FA that may bring 1 WAR or insurance that could bring in $10 million if his star 5 WAR SP goes down.  I bet where you are on the win curve may inform that decision.


#11    NaOH      (see all posts) 2010/01/19 (Tue) @ 20:26

The system inadvertently ate my first attempt to post a comment… Here’s an interesting article from three years ago that was published in the NY Times. It gives insights into some of the factors teams evaluate when deciding on insurance.

http://bit.ly/4SEUtn


#12          (see all posts) 2010/01/20 (Wed) @ 14:27

"That doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense for me to get insurance, because I am insuring against catastrophic costs that are unlikely but which if incurred I would have no hope of paying.”

Exactly the point of insurance.  If I had a family (too young for that), I’d have life insurance in the event something happened to me so they still have enough to live off of.  I have car insurance because I can’t afford to replace my car, and sure as hell can’t afford medical bills/accident bills if something ever happens.  When I buy a house I’ll have insurance for it because I can’t afford to lose it and end up with nothing.  I don’t buy insurance on things like an iPod because I can afford to replace it if something happens, and on average, I lose money with insurance.  Say no to insurance on enough of those small things to get a big sample, and I’m better off.

That’s why I don’t understand baseball insurance.  The teams can afford it.  If someone gets hurt in season (when most injuries happen), it’s not like there are really options to go out and spend this new insurance money, so I don’t know how much I buy the “replacement” theory right now.  I’m just still not seeing where it makes a whole lot of sense for them...well, with Phil’s numbers, I could see it making sense since it’s such a relatively small expense...but then it doesn’t seem to me it would make sense for the insurance company - that doesn’t look like a good product for them in terms of opportunity cost/risk...maybe I just need to think it through a little more?


#13          (see all posts) 2010/01/20 (Wed) @ 20:14

Ian, that must be why the A’s have had so many injuries lately?


#14          (see all posts) 2010/01/20 (Wed) @ 21:30

Why do you assume there are no options to go out and spend the insurance money?  Team A has a regular who is insured and has a high salary go down.  Team B has a player who is overpaid for Team B’s situation, who plays the same position as Team A’s regular.  Team A trades low salary players or prospects to Team B, and uses the insurance money to pay the player’s salary.  For Team B you can substitute “the Pittsburgh Pirates” if you want.


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