from Amazon
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Inside the Mind of a Manager
OK, he’s not really a manager, but he certainly could be one. In fact, I think that he is as smart, knowledgeable, and experienced as most managers in baseball. Don’t get me wrong. I am not, by any means, touting his qualifications to be a good manager. Only that he seems to me to have to have the mindset of a typical manager. And I think that most baseball insiders would agree with me on that.
In the bottom of the 7th, with the pitcher’s spot coming up, there is a runner on first and no outs. At first Manuel had Dobbs in the on-deck circle ready to pinch hit. Then when Ruiz, the batter, reaches base, he decides to pinch hit Taguchi, obviously to bunt. Let’s set aside for a second that that is a bad play by Manuel for the following reason: As I have said a million (maybe only a thousand) times here and in other forums, when there is the possibility of the sacrifice bunt, your ONLY edge is if the defense does not know whether you are going to bunt or not. Once you give it away, one, the bunt almost always decreases your WE, and two, if you don’t bunt (but still give it away), the defense can play back, thus reducing the batter’s chance of a hit. But that is not the issue here.
The person I am referring to, the “faux manager” analyzes the situation. (I am paraphrasing.) He says, “I would not have bunted there. First of all, you have the best pinch hitter in baseball in Dobbs. Second of all, it is the 7th inning and you have a one-run lead - you want to play for the big inning and not one run.”
O.K.
In the top of the 8th, with 1 out, and no one on, Madson is pitching to Manny. This “manager,” says, “The right strategy, I would think, is to throw him inside fastballs. We’ll see (what Madson does).”
Honestly, I think that this person is a perfect proxy for a typical manager. Do me a favor (not directed towards anyone in particular). The next time I or anyone else criticize a manager’s decision-making process, please don’t tell me, “But the manager knows things that you don’t.” Please. Ever.
And I could never understand, if you want to sacrifice, why pinch hit? Let the pitcher bunt, or another pitcher who’s a better bunter. Save your pinch hitter for a better situation.