THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

In fairness to Dunn, Hawpe was the RF on that play and he has a gun.  I’m not sure it was a clear triple with Dunn running, even with the bad bounce off the wall.

I could be wrong, but did you see the play?  Check out the replay if you can on MLBtv.  I think it was 100% a triple for any player on any team if they were even remotely hustling out of the box.  Dunn did two things wrong.  One, he apparently thought it was a home run, which it wasn’t even close to, and then he jogged between first and second after he realized it was not a home run.

MGL may not like to complain about it, but I sure do.

When I would play, and what I would tell anyone on my team, is to always figure that the opponent is going to drop the ball.  Not to mention that if you are hustling, you are probably going to force a few more errors.

As for balls hit in the air, you gotta figure that maybe the wind is going to get it, and so, run as if it’s going to go off the wall.

I remember once that Tim Raines did not hustle on the basepaths, and he ended up on 3B on what he figured was going to be an easy high pop fly to the infielder for the third out.  The batter ended up only on 1B.  The next batter ended up driving both of them in, and the manager, Buck Rodgers, told Raines (and I think Hubie Brooks) to go kiss the batter on the mouth for getting them out of trouble.  He was incensed, and I was too.

Rickey Henderson getting more than one off-the-wall single is ridiculous, and I have no doubt that his lack of triples is simply him not hustling.

Welcome to...Adam Dunn baseball!

Maybe Dunn was nursing an injury.  Regardless, I don’t mind not hustling here as much as most.  It seems to me we need to balance:

(1) the probability of gaining an extra base or 2 by hustling, versus

(2) the probability that hustling will cause injury or, in the case of older or out-of-shape players, a drop in performance for the rest of the game (due to exhaustion)

And actually, (1) should account for the value of that extra base, including leverage.  See, e.g, Teixeira scoring from first on that dropped pop fly a little while ago to beat the Mets.

Maybe I generally overestimate (2), which would make hustling the right decision in almost all circumstances.

I don’t think Dunn was nursing an injury.

I don’t mind players not hustling on ground balls that are going to be easy outs and I certainly don’t mind players not hustling in low leverage situations.

Down 1-0 in the 7th inning is a high leverage situation.  There is never a reason to not hustle on a fly ball that may be a home run as it happens so infrequently.

I don’t have much of a problem (I do have SOME problem with it - my friend who is not a huge baseball fan cannot understand how a player does not run his ass off for the few seconds that he actually has to do something in a baseball game - and he has a point) with the fact that some players hustle all the time and others don’t.  I do have a problem with players who don’t hustle on the few plays a year when it is probably important to do so.  I also have a problem with players not hustling when their team sucks.  I guess you can make the argument that they are not going anywhere anyway, but I think that if a team sucks they owe it to the fans and themselves to hustle as often as possible and to try and win as hard as possible as the fans are already getting ripped off on their money by having to watch an inferior product.

I have seen the Nats play about a dozen times this year, and it could be just observational bias but it seems like they do a lot of things that help them to lose games other than just inferior baseball talent.  Last night was one of those things.

Remember that Dunn compounded his mistake by getting picked off of third on that ground ball, although I suppose that was not a “lack of effort” mistake.  You could also make an argument, though, that that could have been caused by a lack of concentration or an “I don’t care” attitude.  We can never know of course…

Ken Dryden, in The Game, probably the best sports book in North America ever, was talking about how important practice is.  That you keep practicing over and over and over at a high tempo so that your body is simply conditioned to do things that way all the time.  (And he said that Guy Lafleur would be the first to arrive and last to leave practice, that when Scotty Bowman would punish the players with more laps, Lafleur would outlast them all, because Lafleur loved to practice.)

To then decide in an actual game to put the brakes on is inexcusable as far as I’m concerned.  At the very least, what the heck is wrong with considering these “routine” plays in an actual game identical to the “routine” plays in practice where you must run all out?

And MGL’s friend is right.  It’s not like in hockey where you are skating up and down and side-to-side in 45 second shifts and you are panting by the time you get back to the bench.  It’s a four second anerobic exercise.  Adam Dunn gets paid 10MM to come to swing (or consider swinging) the bat 3000 times, to run 500 times, and to field (or back up a play) 500 times.  That’s $2500 for every “effort” he puts out on the field.  If he thinks that one time he doesn’t want to put the effort, then he should give back the 2500$.

Seems like the right play in the first and third no out situation with a 1-0 score in the 7th inning is to run for home like Dunn did.  If the defense trys for the double play and gets it you score.  If they don’t get the double play you score and there is a man on first.  If they throw home, you hold up and try and get in a run down to allow the runner(s) to advance.  I think that strategy produces more run expectation than does staying close to third and having the defense try for a double play.

I agree with Peter.  I’m pretty sure Mike Scioscia would have every player on his team prepared to run on contact on such a play.

Good point Peter.  Holding up and allowing the DP is the worst thing you can do so you have to run.  So he made an even bigger mistake than I thought.  He is supposed to run on contact.  With just a runner on third and 0 or 1 out, then you don’t go on a comebacker.  Again, I think the pitcher made a mistake.  As soon as he saw Dunn going back to third, which he did, he should have gone for the DP and then Dunn does not score I don’t think.

Unless Dunn was going to go home and then when he saw the pitcher was going to try and get him out, he scampered back to third, which would have been correct for him to do, although, as Peter said, you are supposed to get into a rundown and hope that the other runners advance (although as slow and lumbering as Dunn is, you are supposed to easily get him out in a run down without the other runners advancing).

And didn’t Dunn used to be reasonably fast (with several stolen bases per year)?

And I agree with Tango about the $250,000 per play.  I spoke too soon about being uncritical about players not hustling.  I agree with him and my friend about hustling all the time, although, as I said, I will give a pass when the score is not close or it really doesn’t matter.  But in a close game, completely inexcusable.

Whenever this comes up, I always wonder, and I ask everyone (I don’t think anyone knows unless they played MLB), does the manager or a coach actually talk to Dunn about not hustling or about a bad baserunning decision?  They probably do with a young player, but do they with someone like Dunn?  I don’t think they do on a play like that, and I think that is B.S…

I didn’t see Dunn getting picked off, but if the choice is between him staying at 3rd while they attempt the double play or him getting tagged out trying to score with 2 runners remaiming at 1st and 2nd then it’s almost certainly better to try to score. The chance of the double play would have to be under 30% for the best move to be to stay at 3rd.

Not that Dunn would be able to last long in a rundown but the best thing a runner on 3rd could do in that situation would be to get in a rundown long enough that the other runners advance to 2nd and 3rd. You would go from a RE of 0.35 with a runner on 3rd with 2 out to a RE of 1.42 with 2nd,3rd and one out. If the runner scores on the double play than the RE is 0.11 + 1 run = 1.11

Of course I’m not taking into account the inning or the score, but I wonder how many pitchers would know that turning the double play and letting the run score is a better move than getting the runner on 3rd out.

Welcome Rob Neyer readers.  Once again, Neyer’s link has completely swamped my referrer page, even though once again he made just a passing reference.

Neyer has got to be the baseball blogosphere’s best friend, as well as someone who appreciates sabermetrics.  We’re thankful for both.

Scott, in a 1-0 game, I doubt that letting the run score on the DP is better than getting the runner out at third and leaving 1 and 2 with 1 out.  Dunn’s mistake was simply not running.  He tried to get back to third.  Either he is supposed to try and score or he is supposed to remain put, although I suppose that trying to get the pitcher to throw to third might be a correct option too.  I don’t think he was thinking that though.  I think he was prepared to go home on any ground ball and when he saw it was a comebacker, he tried to get back to no avail.  My primary beef was his piss poor base running on his “double.” It was lame.  You have to watch it to appreciate it.

MGL - I watched both plays.  Very bad that he didn’t hustle on his hit in the corner.  The third base coach may have held him up even if he had been hustling because of Hawpe’s reputation in right, but you still give it everything you’ve got in a close game.

Dunn on third.  Not so bad.  I think he was prepared to go home if the pitcher threw to second for the double play.  I think the pitcher made the right decision not to try for the double play when he had a chance to get Dunn given the game situation.  Then I think Dunn made an OK decision to try and get back to third when the pitcher had given up on the double play.  It probably would have been better to keep on going toward home, but he had a reasonable shot at getting back to third safely.  By the way, if the pitcher had gone to second for the double play and Dunn had continued to home, the correct play for the SS would have been to throw home even if he had a sure double play at first if he had any chance at all of getting Dunn at home.  A man on first with one out, a good pitcher on the mound, and the bottom of the order coming up has a very small chance of scoring.

If I am manager he gets a big fine for not hustling and we talk about the on third situation to make sure he understands all his options for when it happens the next time.

Peter, I agree with everything you said, other than the fact that I think he would have coasted into third if he had been hustling, even if Roberto Clemente were in RF.  That ball richocheted so far in toward the IF, I think a fast player might have had an inside the parker.  Maybe someone can time how long the ball took before being fielded and compare that to a triple by a non-fast player.

I will guess a fast player would have an inside the parker in 13 seconds.  I reason 3.1-3.2 for each base, plus an extra 0.5 or so “startup”.

Another way to calculate is to imagine he’s running in a circle with diameter=127 feet.  That gives us a circumference of 400 feet, or 122m.  Olympic runners do 100m in 10 sec, and the other 22m would take 2 sec, for 12 sec.  So, it seems reasonable that very fast, but non-Olympic runners, with not ideal track conditions will take it in 13 sec.

I will guess that a slow runner (by MLB standards) would run around the bases in 18 seconds?  Pure guess here.

I guess the Nats aren’t used to Coors Field.

Bard just played a double into a single when he jogged lightly to 1st on a hard hit ball to the RF fence, very close to where Dunn hit his, thinking it was an HR.

One of the guys in the Rockies booth mentioned Bard has a groin injury, but if it’s that bad he shouldn’t be playing.

I don’t know why a team puts up with that.  A no-hit catcher should not be playing if he has a groin injury that keeps him from running.

From the time he made contact with the ball to the time that the RF fielded it, was 9 seconds.  I imagine that you have another second or two after that to account for a throw and tag.

So maybe I was wrong.  I’d have to compare that to an easy triple by another slow runner, although that is rare because in order for a slow player to get a triple, the ball pretty much has to bounce far from a fielder.

This thread was put on Primer (for some strange reason) and I was lambasted as usual.  Someone wrote that “he wasn’t jogging into second - he is just slow.” When I watched the video, he was indeed jogging into second, but that could be because he knew that he had no chance to make third - I don’t know.  The video didn’t show him running to first, but on the TV broadcast one of the announcers said that “Dunn must have thought that it was a HR,” implying that he was not running hard.

In the Primer thread, they did talk about the correct base running strategy for Dunn at third on the comebacker.  They correctly said that he was supposed to break for home, which is 100% correct. He is not supposed to go back to third and allow the DP.  To suggest that he broke from third and then went back in order to force the pitcher to throw to third is far-fetched. He is supposed to break for home on contact to force the fielder to throw home or to score if the fielder decides to go for the DP.  He is not even supposed to know if the pitcher fields the ball.  He is supposed to be already on his way home.  And if he sees that the pitcher fields the ball after he is only a few steps off of third, he is definitely supposed to continue home or allow himself to get into a run down.  So even if he cannot be accused of not hustling on the hit, he clearly made a base running mistake (which was not even mentioned on the broadcast I was watching - I guess because it is too subtle for those brainiacs), although making a base running error like that is a different animal than not hustling.  It is possible, as someone mentioned on Primer, that he saw the pitcher throwing to third and thought that he could get back safely, which would have been a heck of a play on his part.  It was a close play at third actually.

I may have made a mistake about the hustling, but it is not clear to me one way or the other.  When I watched it in real time, it appeared to me to be a classic case of a player not hustling and losing a base in the process, but again, I could have been wrong.

I imagine that you have another second or two after that to account for a throw and tag.

When an OF picks up a ball and throws home, if the runner has just about touched 3B (at ball meets glove point), then it will be a close play at home.  Therefore, a 270-ft pickup and throw means it will take 3 seconds.

I don’t know where Hawpe was when he picked up the ball (distance to 3B), but seeing that he’s got a fantastic arm, and if we figure it was 250 feet, let’s say it’s 2.5 seconds. 

So, in all, let’s say 11.5 seconds from the time Dunn made contact to the time the ball would have reached 3B.  So, no I don’t think a slow runner would have made it to 3B if MGL’s timing is correct.  An average runner would have made it.  A slightly below-average runner would have to slide to make it (on a perfect throw).

That doesn’t negate the fact that Dunn should be hustling out of the gate, because Hawpe could have bobbled the ball.

By the way, if the operations folks tracked time from contact to pickup, we’d have ALOT more fun with the data.  I want to know the time to object, then time to pickup, then time to next player, etc, etc, etc.

Dude, the dude hits homeruns, walks, or strikes out.

He’s not used to running.

Cut him some slack.

I think we need to differntiate between two kinds of not hustling.

A) The not running down the first base line like a college WR running his 40 at the NFL combine kind of not hustling.

I think most of us wether we are fans, analysts, coaches, media etc can except that there are lots of times where perhaps it is unwise to “push it” to the very edge of your abilty. (To avoid injury, to save yourself for later or simply because it is difficult to motivate yourself when it is very unlikely to matter.)

But giving say 95% effort still means you are running quite fast (for you). What I do think most people object to (I know I do) is:

B) Barely jogging down the baseline with a body language indicating that you don’t give even the slightest bit of a damn not hustling.

"because it is difficult to motivate yourself when it is very unlikely to matter”

If you had 2500$ riding on it, that should be motivation enough. 

I think teams are limited to something ridiculous like just a 500$ fine.  We need more kangaroo courts, that’s for sure.

And like I said, why is it ok to hustle MORE during practice than during a game?  How does that make sense?

Why not consider the unimportant game situation as if it was practice for an important game situation?

If you want to do your non-hustling, do it when you run on and off the field between innings, and when you are tossing the ball while the pitcher warms up.  Otherwise, I don’t care if the game is 15-0: you hustle.  Just pretend it’s practice.

I guess there are 2 issues:  One is hustling just for the sake of hustling - sort of the “principle” involved.  I think Tango is in that camp, almost unequivocably.  I don’t think that is an unreasonable perspective.

The other issue is whether a player “should” risk an injury or some other adverse affect, short or long term, on a hustle that would have a de minimus (that means very, very little) effect on win expectancy, like, for example, a comebacker to the pitcher or a pop fly to the IF, or in a blowout.

I think I am in the “sort of in-between” camp.  I give players a pass when it really makes almost no difference to WE, but in close games or when it is poor judgment on the player’s part that causes him to loaf (like thinking that a ball is a HR when it is not), I think it is inexcusable.

Since the line between when it matters and when it does not is sometimes blurred, I guess if it were my team (owner, GM, or manager), I would insist that my players hustle virtually all the time, and if they did not, they would be fined, benched, or both. If nothing else, they owe it to the fans to at least appear as if they are giving maximum effort.  And managers who do not insist on that from their players or who cannot seem to control that in their players (whether they insist on it or not) should probably not be managing.

MGL: what do you think of players who don’t hustle in practice, when the delta WE is zero?

Is this where Steinbrenner’s “fat toad” comment about Irabu came from?  That the pitcher wouldn’t bother to hustle on a practice play to cover first?

Hustling in practice is another animal altogether.  If I am a manager or other principal of a team, of course I would insist that my players hustle in practice.  I coached sports for many years.  If you don’t practice hustling, you are less likely to hustle in a game when it matters.  Practice makes permanent (not prefect).  That is why we practice.  We want the hustling to be “automatic” in a game.  That is why players should hustle in practice.  I doubt that the players who loaf in a game hustle in practice (that would really make no sense). Whether all players who hustle in a game hustle in practice, I don’t know.  Some can probably turn it on and off at will easier than others. But, since I don’t necessarily know who can and who can’t as a coach or manager, I would insist that all my players hustle in practice.  Plus, if nothing else, what one player does influences the others, especially veterans on rookies and young players.

Yes, exactly!

If you hustle in a game when the WE is low, it is not a given if you are hustling in practice or not.  It is undetermined.

If you do NOT hustle in a game when the WE is low, it is practically a given that you are not hustling all the time in practice (when WE is zero).

Therefore, if I see any player that does not hustle all the time, then I know I’ve got myself a (sometimes) loafer in practice.  And that is inexcusable.

The hustling spectrum must be:
1. practice
2. practice with game conditions
3. actual game with low leverage
4. actual game with high leverage

If the hustle level in #3 is actually lower than in #1 or #2, then something is terribly wrong.

Tango #23 & #24

In the part you quote I am talking about motivating yourself enough to go from “practice full effort” to “full effort” when the adrenalin is pumping and so on in a (close) game situation.

The difference is not in my oppinion something that you (or at least everyone) neccesarilly can consiously control. That very last bit of effort is likely not something you can just “turn on” by sheer will when it does not matter.

However, if you don’t watch the game with an accurate stopwatch “practice full effort” will likely look more or less like the real thing.

This sounds eerily like, well, the conversation we Reds fans had about once a week while Dunn was around. He’s just too sluggish to ever reach his full potential, as a player or a leader, and for every time he awes you with a majestic blast, he’ll enrage you with a boneheaded and, yes, lazy baserunning or defensive mistake. Speaking of defense, Hawpe isn’t that great of an outfielder. He can throw, but he can’t field, which even a baserunner like Dunn should know from the scouting report.

I have been running a stopwatch on ground balls and a few other plays the past few days.

Andrew McCutchen hit a line drive to right center that was a possible triple. I timed him at 4.1 to 1b (rounding the bag) and 7.8 to 2nd (pulled up last two steps). If we assume 2b to 3b would be same 3.7 as from 1b to 2b, credit 0.1 for sliding, maybe 10.3 for home to 3b for very fast runner.

I had McCutchen at 4.0 to 1b on a gb. Worst time so far (running all the way to the base) was Miguel Tejada, thrown out by Jack Wilson deep in the hole at short, in 4.6. Best was Nyjer Morgan in 3.9.

Fan of the Reds here...as others have said...this is what you get. Pretty soon his mom will be on the radio telling you fans to lay off...and Adam and mommy will attack the play by play guy for being unfair...while here, he routinely butchered plays in the outfield and clearly could care less...he was unmotivated to do anything, then one day the manager removed his (and another overpaid undermotivated prima donna) massage chair from the club house (they had them and nobody else did, and nobody else was to touch them) citing them as a distraction...he whined like a baby for weeks…

He’s a beer league softball player who strikes out, can’t play defense and hits mammoth home runs when the team is out of it or ahead by enough to win...not real good in the clutch.  Other than these tiny flaws...he’s outstanding.