THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I have him currently projected at 33 runs above average in offense.  Call him -20 in defense.  -3 in baserunning and 0 in arm.  That is +10 above average which is generously 5 runs above average after a positional adjustment.

I don’t think he is good for more than 130-140 games per season at this point in his career and with his injury history.

Also at this point in his career, he is good for at least 5 runs per year in decline.

I would not give him more than 3/25 as a left fielder.  Period.  He is worth a lot more as a DH.

My guess is that someone will give him like 3/50 or 4/60.  Maybe more.  If anyone gives him 5 years, they should be drawn and quartered.

I think it will be 4 years and an option. The team will play him in left for a year or two or three and DH the end of the contract. I think he will get an average of 14 per year but backloaded.

As a GM for Toronto, I would overpay him for a two year contract because it is time to make a run. If I am going to make a mistake signing someone, I want it to be a short contract.

I thin he’ll get 3 years, $45million with an option on the end for $12million or so. It will have to be an AL team (though the Giants are pretty stupid) that feels it’s just a bat away from contention. The Blue Jays might fit here, especially if JP is fired and the new guys wants to make a splash. Or maybe he could sign with Atlanta for a little less than that if there isn’t enough interest.

At a +33 for offense and a -23 for defense and baserunning (I agree with Tango in that no one can be more than -20 else they’d be a DH), that makes him worth 3.5 WAR as a full-time AL player. He’s going to have averaged 135 games or so over the last three seasons. As he ages we should tick that down a bit, making him about a 2.9 WAR player. We probably should account for the usual nonsense that comes with Ramirez, so I’ll call him a 2.75 WAR player. Using Tango’s salary chart, that makes him worth 3/$32.3M or 4/$39.6M. That is based on last year’s going rate for free agents. 

I strongly suspect he’ll get much more than that. Peter Gammons actually reported he’s looking for 4/$100M tonight! I’d guess he ends up with 4 years and between 60 and 70 million. Recalling dumb contracts like the Suppan one, it will probably be higher if the Red Sox go very far again.

Listening to Gammons, Phillips, et al. about Manny tonight (as if defense does not really count - it is just an afterthought, and other stupid things) made me want to throw up. 4 yrs/100 mil!  I almost spit up my dinner!

+33 on offense and -23 on running and defense is +5 runs above average after a positional adjustment (-5 runs for a corner outfielder).

That is 2.5 WAR (at best)!  And that assumes 150 games per season, which I think is a bot optimistic for Manny.

Where do you get 3.5 WAR?

If the Blue Jays overpay for Manny, I think it will be WITH JP as he is one ignorant GM (IMO) and it will take an ignorant GM to sign him.

As a TOR fan, why would you want to overpay for a player who is 5 runs above average? The whole point in not overpaying for a player, especially one who is near average, is that for the same money you can acquire more wins!

We all know the Mets will sign him to a 4-year, $90 million deal with a mutual option for a fifth year at $20 million. Let’s all stop pretending.

Isn’t a full-time AL player 2.5 WAR not 2.0 WAR? Or at least that’s the rule of thumb I recall us using in the sabermetric moves of the off-season thread. So, a +5 would be 3.0 WAR.
I was figuring Manny as a DH, not as a LF, so he’d be a -20 for position and a 0 for defense. Though, at that we would have to ding his offensive numbers a bit as there’s no DH penalty accounted for in that +33.

What would I give him? 3/36.  He’s not worth that much in production, but he sells tickets.  And as a fan, when you see him rip a line drive or hit a bomb, it’s easy to convince yourself he’s still something special.

What will he get?  I bet 4/65, and I bet he signs with the Angels.  Look at the disgusting production they’ve gotten out of their DH this year.  Rivera?  Garret Anderson?  Ugh.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-manny072708&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Barely a passing mention of his defense.  No wonder he thinks Manny’s worth $20MM.

Is really picking up the option such a bad deal?
In my mind for a one year deal a “fair price” isn’t much below that.

If I am the Red Sox my thinking goes something like this in order of priority.

1) Trade him no if I can get some talent. (Yankees look like a good fit, though with some potential for disaster.)

2) Pick up his option and try and get some value in a trade next year from somone desperate.

3) Release him at the end of the season and hope for compensation picks.

Distant last) Extend his contract

Is really picking up the option such a bad deal?

Yes, in terms of how much to pay him.

In my mind for a one year deal a “fair price” isn’t much below that.

In your mind?  What does that mean?

Give us your projection for him offensively, defensively, and on the bases, and I promise that someone will help you to determine how much you think he is worth as compared to any other FA.

If I am the Red Sox my thinking goes something like this in order of priority.

1) Trade him no if I can get some talent. (Yankees look like a good fit, though with some potential for disaster.)

If some stupid team is willing to pick up the salary of a guy who is making 10 mil more (per year) than he is worth AND give up some prospects in return, you bet that Epstein would do that!

I know some people in Vegas who own homes with no equity.  They would love to trade those homes to someone if that someone would actually give them something.  Love to.

2) Pick up his option and try and get some value in a trade next year from somone desperate.

If they could actually do that, then sure, that is fine. If no one wants him now, I doubt that anyone would want him for 20 mil next year.

3) Release him at the end of the season and hope for compensation picks.

That is what they are going to do if they can’t trade him now.  It is a no-brainer.

Distant last) Extend his contract

You are kidding, right?  That has exactly zero percent chance of occurring.

In my mind means that I am trying to guess at the following things:

(Lets assume for the moment that Manny is a 2.5 to 3 WAR player next season.)

How will the “going rate” for free agent salaries turn out next off-season. In all likelyhood they will increase but it is hard to guess by how much.

What will be the typical price for shortening contracts. It seems extremly likely that the red sox could sign a “Manny-analog” to a lower yearly salary if the do it in a multi-year deal but Free Agents willing to accept short deals are relativly rare and hence will likely be more expensive.

How much is the extra flexibilty of only signing him to a one year extention acctually worth to the red sox? I guess this depends on what their long term strategy looks like. In my mind the Red Sox of 2009 are definitly a “now” team if perhaps not a “now or never” team.

How much “brand value” is there (positive and negative) to “Manny being Manny” at this point. I’m guessing that compared to other players of equal on field performance his ability to generate “free” publicity and media buzz is well above average.

How much is the “risk avoidance” of buying a known commodity at a fixed price compared to the uncertanty of trying to pick it up in an “auction” setting worth to the red sox.

Bjorn, reasonable assessment, although I think that the gap between the 20 mil and what his market value is is just too great for the other considerations to overcome it.  And I think that the Red Sox are smart enough to realize that.  They are probably one of the few teams to know exactly what Manny is worth, at least in terms of his WARP.  Most other teams, like the MSM and general public, consider his poor defense as an afterthought and/or somehow think that, “Well in Fenway, it doesn’t really matter.”

I have him as a 2.7 WAR player, so I’d give him a 4 year deal worth around $35 mil. I’d guess I’d add a team option for 2013.

Incredibly, there is an ESPN.com report that the Marlins are considering trading for Ramirez in exchange for either Jeremy Hermida or Josh Willingham and two pitching prospects. Trading Ramirez for Hermida alone would be a horrible deal, so this is totally baffling to me that the Marlins are even taking the phone call.

*If the report is accurate.

#14, that sounds reasonable.  Of course, he, his agent, and most teams would laugh their asses off at your more than reasonable assessment.

Off the top of my head, the 3 most over-valued players in baseball, not including pitchers, the last few years, are Jeter, Carlos Lee, and Manny.  You can probably throw in Griffey, although he is a matter of a replacement player being thought of as slightly above average, which is a large over-value as well.

The rumor, I think, is the Red Sox paying Manny’s salary, so the Marlins get him for “free” and give up some young players.  He (Manny) is really not going to add anything to the Marlins team, except perhaps some more fan interest, so no matter what, acquiring him is probably a bad deal for them.  Off the top of my head.

Whatever the Sox get is going to be a killer deal for them as they are the only team that realize Manny’s true worth (2.5 WAR or so).

Even if they just got Hermida and paid Manny’s salary, they would be around even for this year, since Manny is no better than Hermida, and then they get Hermida for a few more years as an arb player.  That alone is a good deal for them.

If they get Bay and no on else, again, this year is a wash and then they get Bay for 09 at 7.5 mil (for a 10-15 mil player), which is a bargain, and draft picks I guess if they lose him after 09.  Another good deal for the Sox.

If someone really wants Manny and thinks that he is a 5 WAR player (which most teams do), the Sox are in a can’t lose situation.

Again, I would not be at all surprised if they orchestrated this whole controversy with Manny the last week or so.  And BTW, in case anyone forgot, NOTHING HAPPENED during this week to generate the controversy other than a small snowball rolling down the media hill.  At the very least, I am pretty sure that the Sox fanned the flames of the controversy.

Yeah, I’d expect to get laughed at by Mann and Boras.

What could Manny be getting this off-season? I don’t see any team giving him more than 4 to 5 years, with the former being more likely, but I can see a team giving Manny something like 4/$60, maybe even more.