THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Which is sadder, that Frenchy batted cleanup for the Mets today, or that it might be the correct spot given their lineup?

Honestly, I tend to look at what you are saying in the opposite direction:  If Frenchy is playing well above his projection (eg, he’s been “hot”,) and he’s still only at an 800 OPS…

Anyway, it will be very interesting to see how much money he gets in the off-season, and from whom.

Well, it should be cause for optimism.  It shows that he at least has the ability to hit well, and isn’t completely washed up.  However, I agree it has no predictive value.

"It shows that he at least has the ability to hit well,..”

The thing is, and part of my point, is that if someone hits, say .800, in 35 games they could easily be a true .600 player. So, it doesn’t show you anything (much).  There was no reason to think that he WAS washed up, whatever that means.  We just think that he is not a very good player.  I don’t think that we (stat guys) EVER thought that he was a very good player, although I think at first (when he was young) his projection suggested that he would likely be a very good player at 26 or 27.  But even if he is “washed up” (say a true .700 or less OPS), he could still easily hit .800 in 35 games couldn’t he?  So how does that “show us that he is not washed up?” Anyone has the the ability to hit well in 35 games, if you define “ability” as some minimum level of talent, say a true .600 OPS.  Certainly even a player with a true .500 OPS has the “ability” to hit .800 in 35 games. It won’t happen very often, but given enough 35 game stretches, it will become very likely.

btw, here is the newest greatest quote from Frenchy which has been posted a few other places on the web:

“That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer.”

Mr. Frenchy, if you are reading this, please click on my name and read.

MGL,

I recall a blog post from you last year in which you slammed Edwin Jackson as a horrible pitcher (paraphrasing here), how has this year changed your view of him? Thanks.

#5, yup same with Jason Marquis, and I once thought that Carmona was a very good pitcher. Oh, yeah and I thought that Wieters was lights out before he ever stepped up to the plate in the majors. Same thing with 100 other players.  What is your point?  That sabermetricians and forecasters aren’t Gods or that the laws of physics and mathematics don’t exist?  Oh, and when I was a lot younger, I thought that Baseketball was a really good movie.

In all seriousness (although I really do tire of comments and questions like that), my “opinion” on a player at any given time is simply a moving average of that player’s historical stats. I have no control over those stats.  None whatsoever.  So why are you asking me a question like that?  Occasionally I do have an “opinion” on a player that differs from my or some other forecaster’s projection, but I try not to give it too much importance.  Heck if GMs’ and scouts’ personal opinions on players (like Betancourt is a great defender and Francouer is a good hitter) when they differ from the stats, suck, which they do, who am I to be better than they are.  I’m not.  My observational opinions that is.

And also, player true talent does change.  Sometimes a lot. Sometimes a player (usually a pitcher) really does suck one year and then is a lot better another year. Sometimes we have no idea why.  A lot of the time we have no idea whether the player’s true talent changed or not or whether the stats/performance did not reflect that true talent in the first place. There is really no way of knowing unless, for example, a pitcher gains or loses something significant on his fastball or has suffered or recovered from a serious injury, or learns a new pitch, or gets old, or gains a lot of experience.  Edwin Jackson used to have a horrible BB rate and a bad HR rate.  This year he doesn’t.  Did his true talent HR and BB rate change significantly?  Or was it always this good but his performance in 3 or 4 years prior did not reflect that?  Or is it some combination?  Maybe his BB and HR rates still suck, but not as much as we thought last year or the year before that and he just got lucky so far this year?  We have NO answers to those questions and no idea what is going on.  None, whatsoever.  I don’t think anyone does. Tampa summarily got rid of him because they thought he sucked too.  I assume that they have a pretty good evaluation process and personnel.  Again, all we can do at ANY point in time is estimate someone’s true talent from their historical performance and from scouting if we choose to include that (or scouting and not too many stats as some teams do).  We are usually pretty much right on, but we are NEVER perfect.  Never.  If all you have to do is point to a player or two (or three or ten) to invalidate any evaluation system, even the greatest ones in the world, well, that would be like shooting fish in a barrel.  You will always find those players without looking too hard or long. Congratulations! If you want, I’ll give you 10 more. If you also want, I’ll bet you my “opinion” on any player going forward against yours.

#5, I guess I could have answerer your question more succinctly:

“How do you think?  By pretty much all measures of pitching performance (ERA, DIPS ERA, ERC, FIP, ERA+, tRA, etc.) he has pitched a lot better this year than in years past so obviously his projection has improved.”

I mean that answer to be very sincere.

Man, good for you that you came up with post #7. # 6 was completely unnecessarily harsh in response to a normal question…

Hard to tell if a question is being sarcastic or not.  I presume that it was a legitimate question, but obviously mgl read it differently.

FWIW, I once called Cristian Guzman replacement-level.  And Joel Pineiro, from 2005-2008, on 600 IP, was replacement-level.  How are we supposed to separate him from Ponson?  Of the 177 pitchers with at least 300 IP over those 4 years, Pineiro has the 7th worst ERA+ and Ponson the worst.

Pizza/5 was marked for moderation and is now open.

All the references to post numbers between there and here will be off by one.

please stop dissing my homie, wincoeur.  he is trying his best.

I won’t speak for all fellow Met fans, but I can speak for myself - I’m not really all that enamored of Jeff Francouer, but so many guys are hurt, and so many of their corner outfielders have been terrible (even when healthy), that having anyone hold down a spot with any sort of halfway-decent output, is a small point gained.  As far as rally-killing dingers, well, with this team we have very little danger of one of those, so in a twisted way, it almost makes sense for him to have said that.

The last three seasons have really been killing me.  You’d think the Islanders would have done more damage, but in some ways it’s worse to have had the talent the Mets have had from about ‘98 through ‘07 and to see the kinds of implosions and disasters that have resulted.  At least I know where I stand with the Isles, and they may yet pleasantly surprise me.

Wow, now there’s one I wasn’t expecting…

I own Jackson in a keeper league and I’ve been thinking of unloading him while his value is high. Since I do value your opinion I was just wondering your thoughts on his true talent level. I won’t make that mistake again.

p.s. Have you ever been diagnosed with Asperger’s Syndrome?

My “opinion” is that he is now projected as around a league average starter.  I’ve seen him pitch many times.  In years past, he seemed to have little idea where each pitch was going and consequently walked a lot of batters.  This year he hasn’t done that as much and his K rate is a little higher.  Which is the “real” Edwin Jackson, I have no idea.  Absolutely no idea. My best guess, as always, is that it is somewhere in between.  His numbers (component rates) really aren’t a whole lot different this year, actually, after adjusting for context.  As I said, significantly fewer walks, and a little more K.

I know little about fantasy baseball.  I assume that you get points for things like wins, K’s, WHIP, etc.  You’d have to have projections for those things to decide how much a player is worth in a fantasy league.  A pitcher can be very good, but if he doesn’t throw many innings per game and/or his bullpen is lousy and/or his team doesn’t have a good offense, he likely won’t win that many games.  If a pitcher has a high true K rate, but he is not that great of a pitcher, he might be quite valuable in a fantasy league.  I assume that park effects are not considered in fantasy baseball so a pitcher in a pitcher’s park is more valuable even though that has no effect on his actual value to his team.  IOW, sabermetrics and fantasy baseball are 2 different animals although obviously you can use sabermteric and forecasting techniques in fantasy baseball.  There are plenty of good web sites that do a good job of valuing players based on projections.  A lot better than I can do.  All I do is crunch numbers to come up with projections; occasionally I have a different or additional opinion on players.

Come on LVHCH1, you can take a little vitriol!  Feel free to ask for my opinion any time.

“p.s. Have you ever been diagnosed with Asperger’s Syndrome?”

No, have you ever been diagnosed with eczema?