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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

How seriously should we take the forecasting systems?

By Tangotiger, 10:39 AM

Bill James:

I used to do projections for players just for fun.  After we started the Handbook (about 1990) John said “Why don’t we publish those projections.”

“John,” I said, “those projections don’t have any scientific validity whatsoever.  I’m just messing around with formulas, playing around with them.  I can’t publish that.”

“We won’t say they have any validity,” John said.  “We’ll just say we do these projections, and you can take them for what they’re worth.” So we started printed them, and people liked them, so we still do it.

A perfect and honest response: Just for fun, no scientific validity, take them for what they’re worth. 

Beautiful.


#1    Florence Nightingale David      (see all posts) 2011/11/22 (Tue) @ 17:39

As if either Bill James or John Dewan would recognize scientific validity (or lack thereof) if they saw it. The disclaimers from BIS are never exactly in bright, flashing lights.


#2          (see all posts) 2011/11/22 (Tue) @ 23:10

Of course they have “scientific validity” unless BJ is simply making them up (maybe he is).

Typical BJ understatement (which is flat out wrong).  Understating a case ("no scientific validity") can be as damaging (to the truth and to the scientific method) as overstating it ("deadly accurate").  I am not a big fan of either.  How about instead explaining the methodology and its strengths and weaknesses, rather than using talking points?


#3    Crocker      (see all posts) 2011/11/23 (Wed) @ 01:51

Dewan’s “take them for what they’re worth” half-caveat on those projections probably also applies to whatever Dewan does in fielding. Of course, he calls the book “The Fielding Bible” instead of “Some Uncorroborated Measurements of Fielding: Take Them for What They’re Worth.” A bit more implied measurement rigor in the former.


#4    Rally      (see all posts) 2011/11/23 (Wed) @ 10:12

To me the term “Bible” doesn’t imply measurement rigor.  It implies you must possess faith to believe.  Seems appropriate.


#5    J. G. Taylor Spink      (see all posts) 2011/11/23 (Wed) @ 14:10

#4: But then, The Sporting News was for decades known as the “baseball bible,” and “bible” in that context had nothing to do with faith and everything to do with accuracy of published baseball statistics. I don’t know or care what religion Dewan practices, but I would never believe that Dewan does not know what the baseball bible was.


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